Welcome to another edition of Payout Perspective! This week we take a look at the UFC’s return to New Jersy with UFC 111. The sold-out held at Newark’s Prudential Center featured a welterweight title bout between Georges St-Pierre and Dan Hardy, as well as an interim heavyweight title bout between Shane Carwin and Frank Mir.
GSP defends, but fails to finish
Georges St-Pierre out-classed Dan Hardy by a country mile on Saturday night. He put on an absolute grappling clinic: taking Hardy down at will with hardly any set-ups, passing Hardy’s guard with ease, and moving from submission attempt to ground and pound to submission attempt again.
The UFC anticipated a spectacular finish of one kind or another when it made this title match. Most thought that either GSP would stop Hardy on the ground or that Hardy would land that miracle shot. But the fight failed to deliver in that sense. Some are even questioning whether the fight delivered at all. The answer is that it depends, as always.
I’m inclined to think the fight was a disappointment on some levels, but far from the catastrophe that others are claiming it to be. Yes, GSP failed to meet the general expectation that he’d stop Hardy; and disappointment is often defined as the failure to meet expectations. However, GSP did thoroughly dominate Hardy and put him in serious danger, which is certainly what everyone expected.
Will the performance impact GSP or the UFC in the future? I’m not overly convinced. The fight probably didn’t win them any new fans, but it didn’t send people running for the hills, either. GSP’s popularity is remarkable in the sense that he’s just about the only fighter in the UFC that can get away with relentless take downs and have people cheer just as ferociously as if he were kicking someone upside the head. GSP did nearly broke Hardy’s arm on two separate occasions and beat him thoroughly – the GSP fans aren’t going anywhere.
Moreover, I think an advantage the UFC has over boxing – if we’re looking to compare the latest Pacquiao main event to GSP-Hardy – is that the shortcomings of a main event can be off-set by the main card. The Pellegrino, Carwin, and Hamman fights were excellent – Miller was good, too.
Still, I do think there’s something to be said for the impact of the recency effect. The last impression most viewers had of this card was a one-sided drubbing that, at best, could be described as a clinic (and at worst, the “Jersey Snore” by ESPN…er Sherdog). Rightly or wrongly, fight cards are ultimately judged by their main events.
Carwin obliterates Mir, sinks buyrate of Lesnar’s next fight?
Shane Carwin displayed impressive power in his knockout victory over Frank Mir, which now sets up a like July 3rd date with Brock Lesnar to unify the belts. It’s no secret that a Lesnar-Carwin bout is less attractive than Lesnar-Mir III, but one of the greatest challenges in sports business is dealing with the issue of control, or lack thereof.
Lesnar needs no introduction: he’s the most polarizing force in the sport and people will tune in as long as they know he’s fighting. Carwin, on the other hand, is still a relative unknown. It won’t be a struggle to prove his legitimacy, but the UFC will be tested to push his profile in a rather short period of time.
Another UFC Primetime might be the strongest play. The UFC has a legitimate story angle to push with Lesnar’s comeback, in addition to the previous tension between he and Carwin. It would also present the perfect opportunity to shed some light on Carwin who’s somewhat reluctant to engage the media. The cost of the Primetime show (estimated to be around $1.7 million for the GSP-Penn version) is certainl material, but the cost-benefit ratio is pretty favorable in this case. Also don’t forget that come July 3rd, the UFC should be riding a decent tailwind on account of the previous 3 months of title fights and UFC Undisputed being released in late May.
The UFC 111 full-court marketing press
The UFC put a lot of marketing muscle behind this fight, which is why I’m inclined to believe it’ll like do somewhere in the range of 700k buys on PPV.
The UFC supported the event with television content like UFC Primetime, UFC on Versus, and UFC Unleased in the weeks leading up to the fight, but also did its best to negotiate good promotional clips on ESPN’s SportsCenter and a detailed pull-out in USA Today. Dana White did what he does best and spent the majority of fight week travelling between Toronto and New York host fan and media sessions for the UFC and the event in general, including the pre-fight press conference at New York’s Radio City Music Hall (the same location as the UFC’s official NYC viewing party for 111). The company was also pretty sharp in its advertising on billboards and print magazines: prominent ads in Times Square and SI Swimsuit being most notable. Finally, the use of social media was characteristically strong: the UFC kicked up its YouTube coverage with a series of ads and continues to use Twitter more and more effectively as the days pass.
Sponsorship Watch
It was an interesting evening on the SpikeTV side. DirecTV, seemingly back in the Zuffa’s good graces, signed on as the title sponsor of UFC 111: The Prelims. Also, the five minute teaser trailer for TUF 11 showed Miller Lite as a sponsor of the series; something that seemingly conflicts with the idea that Bud Light is the UFC’s biggest sponsor (not value, but sheer size of the sponsor company).
In other news, MusclePharm continues to be every where. I’m hearing that the company may be looking to go public, in which case all this added sponsorship has an evident purpose – increasing brand exposure to the benefit of the IPO. However, I still think the company has an issue in the use of its MP logo; I’d like to see it better activate around the individual fighter deals in order to draw a clearer link between brand, logo, and product. The WEC arrangement is a start, but if the company is targeting the MMA demographic, it could do a heck of a lot more to reach that audience (internet, print, contests, etc.).
Note: MMAPayout.com unveiled its MMA Sponsorship Blue Book this week. We’ll be doing our best to make it as comprehensive as possible, which means we’ll have updates with every MMA event.
I pay for a FULL card so I judge it as a whole. I was entertained. GSP nearly broke Hardy’s arm and people act like he wasn’t going for the finish.
Wow – Carwin. What an animal. You know the guy doesn’t have the technical prowess of JDS or Carwin, but this guy is scary. He manhandled MIR and finished him hard and fast. Where this places Carwin is obvious – top 4 in the UFC HW. A loss for MIR leaves him in a different mix. But what a PPV that would have been – Lesnar vs MIR. I think we would have seen a different dynamic had MIR won and Lesnar walked into the cage.
GSP failed to impress, but I was expecting more or less a “Fitch-esc” fight. Watching the primetimes you can see Hardy was not focusing on Wrestling take down defense as much as he needed so I’m not sure what he was thinking about doing. His work with Serra sure paid off with those arm-bar/kumura attempts.
I agree, the last fight will be the last impression that will sit with the viewers. Some thought it was a great fight, most thought it was not. I sit somewhere in the middle. Totally impressed with GSP takedown advantage, not the least impressed with the rest of his arsenal.
Make no mistake – GSP is not fighting to win anymore, he’s fighting not to lose. He has become a “brand” now, not just a mix martial artist. A loss would be devastating to the marketing side of GSP and all his endorsements.
My official prediction is 650K buys.
I bought a 12 track cd. The first 11 tracks were great to solid but the last one was awful. What a shit cd. Fickle fans indeed.
MMAGURU,
GSP had tunnel vision and did nothing but work for subs. That is not playing it safe or fighting not to lose. That would be simply smothering Hardy and peppering him with little shots. The Fitch, Penn, Serra and Alves fights saw GSP deliver a considerable amount of damage on the ground, this was different altogether.
Now regarding the suggestion of a Lesnar/Carwin Prime Time, I don’t see it happening because Brock is a very private person and is not going to want cameras following him around for three weeks.
I realize im on a Canadian ran site which has a little (not a lot) bias towards GSP. Which is natural. BUt the fact is since Serra KOed GSP he has not fought with the same killer instinct as before. Every fight since he has been content to use as little striking as possible. Then taking no chances on the ground to finish fights. This fight with Hardy was 25 minutes and he didnt land a single meaning punch on the feet or ground. He was in control mode just as he was vs Alves. In the 25 minutes he managed 2 decent subs. The straight arm lock was so sloppy it shouldnt even count. IF he would have kept his knees together he may have pulled it off. But Hardy shifted his elbow and there was no pressure on his elbow at all just his shoulder. SO there was no submission there. The Kimura was tight and i give credit to both for that move and getting out.
I was hoping to see more from Hardy. I think GSP isnt not a mentally strong fighter. He still hasnt got over his KO loss to Serra and is still scared to get KOed. Also think he loses focus when things do go his way early. This is what i wanted Hardy to test. BUt once he saw how big he was and cutting from 205 i knew he was going to be a slow flat footed target to takedown. In this fuight Hardys best weapon would have been his speed if he stayed lighter and quick. Something that is at a premium at 170. The one fighter to hurt GSP was a natural 155 guy in Serra. What made Hardy think he can bulk up and land some power punch on a quicker guy?
Jeremy,
I agree with your comments, but my thoughts are based on what we have seen from him over the last few fights progressively. As the pressure mounts, he starts to think about not losing more and more and less about winning. Now, no one knows what’s in GSP’s thoughts so this is just an opinion and nothing more. He has a lot to lose by losing, more than possibly any other fighter outside of Fedor. But with Fedor, time in and time out you see a man determined to do harm to his opponent.
Brain,
I fail to see where Hardy even tried to strike. He was fighting very cautiously for his style.
i like your comparison to boxing
can you please start printing all the salaries of top boxers to that of top mma fighters all over the world not just ufc and not just top rank or goldenboy…but all over the world…im curious because you printed the nba and nhl salaries but didnt include boxing…maybe you can print the top 30 of both worlds
I think the so called defensive style of GSP is getting overstated. If we look a little closer at his fights since his lose to Serra he has tried many different things. He finished Hughes with a submission, Serra with strikes, and Penn by ground and pound. He dominated Fitch both in the stand up game and on the mat. He took out Alves with straight wrestling (while injuried for 2 rounds) and dominated Hardy by looking for submissions.
The next time Georges faces an oppenent who’s weakest aspect is striking will be the next time we see him stand up. Its not so much defensive fighting as it is game planning to target his opponents weaknessess. It is intelligent battle. If GSP stood with Alves and Hardy and had lost one of those fights, we would all be saying what a stupid gameplan he employed by deciding to stand and trade with them when he is so skilled at the takedown and ground game.
Brain,
I was a fan before I got involved in the business. I guess you could say I got into the business because I was such a fan; it’s what motivated me to start working with promotions in Canada.
To stop cheering for certain fighters would take a lot of the fun out of it. Plus, I think I can be somewhat objective (and I appreciate the fact you think I’m no more than just a little bias). 🙂
Ian,
I tend to agree: that’s why I like the Shields match-up so much. He’s got great wrestling and jiu-jitsu, but a lesser stand-up pedigree. I think the fans would see a finish on its feet in that one. Even a Koscheck fight might produce the same result.
Sometimes I also think that people have forgotten that GSP knocked down Fitch and Alves in each of those fights (Fitch two or three times in fact). He employed a more versatile strategy against those guys because they were more well-rounded; he had to set-up his shots with strikes, where with Hardy he just slipped a punch and double or singled with ease.
However, I do think there is some credence to the idea that he hasn’t gotten over the Serra loss. I’m not sure he’s scared of losing or getting KO’d, but I do think he’s scared of losing to a nobody.
Anyone seen this report from FightMetric? It’s very interesting:
http://blog.fightmetric.com/2010/03/career-highs-for-gsp.html
While St. Pierre was unable to finish Hardy, the grappling clinic he put on set three new career highs for GSP:
11 takedowns landed (previous high, 10 vs. Alves)
6 submission attempts (previous high, 5 vs. Koscheck)
26 positional improvements (previous high, 14 vs. Miller)
Less impressive was the total number of heavy strikes landed by GSP. After landing a career-high 106 HiPer Strikes against Jon Fitch, St. Pierre’s striking tally has declined in each of his last three fights:
49 vs. Penn (in four rounds)
41 vs. Alves
35 vs. Hardy
I am not expecting GSP to stand and bang with everyone. The above stats is what im talking about. On the ground he isnt really doing anything. His GnP is non existant. Hardy is the worst fighter he has faced with zero wrestling and the worst ground game of anyone he has fought probabely ever. I think this is likily a sign that GSP may not have much longer atop the 170 division. To be on the ground as long as he was with Hardy and do so little is no excuse.
BM,
I’m not sure what stats you are looking at, 11 takedowns (out of 11 by the way), 6 sub attempts and 26 positional improvements is not “doing anything”. In fact, it’s doing a lot. There is more to the ground game than GnP. He was not going to stop a tough kickboxer like Hardy with punches on the ground, especially with Hardy covering up as well as he did. GSP gave himself the best opportunity to finish the fight by going for submissions and if Hardy had anything other than gumby-flex arms he probably would have stopped him.
GSP is a ground fighter who is constantly improving his position and depending on his opponent either landing strikes, going for submissions or both. With Hardy he elected to go for subs, which unfortunately take a long time to set up if your opponent is doing nothing other than defending. That he almost ripped Dan’s arm off twice is not bad. If Hardy had tapped, we would not be having this discussion. The fact that he didn’t tap has more to do with Hardy’s toughness than any lack of activity on the part of GSP.
Lastly, I much preferred GSP’s performance to Fitch’s. Fitch did not really try to pass the guard (except in that third round) and although he landed a lot of strikes that probably look good in the fightmetric stats, he never came close to getting a stoppage, and arguably wasn’t even going for one. GSP didn’t get the stoppage, but it wasn’t for lack of trying.
Oh yeah, GSP also damn near popped Hardy’s elbow with those straight arm locks in the 5th round. All told there were 4 or 5 times during this fight when I thought, “this could be it”. Not bad in my book.
If GSP was actually trying to GnP Hardy and tough him up he might have actually got a sub. Just because you cant stop someone with strikes dont mean you dont strike. Maybe if Hardy was getting his ass beat via GnP he would have less motivation to gut out the subs. Lots of people especially strikers will give you subs to keep from losing to strikes. Hardy didnt tap because GSP didnt hurt him, just laying on him.
Comparing him to Fitch is not helping your case. Fitch is not a finisher, he isnt the champ, and doesnt have the expectations that GSP has. GSP is bigger and a better striker and has been a finisher in the past and that is still expected out of him. Even more so verses lessor competition.
Didnt GSP say this was the best GSP yet? Wasnt Hardy protected and steered away from wrestling based fighters and givena diet of strikers to get this undeserved title shot? Wasnt HArdy the worst challanger for GSP yet? There is no excuse for a poor performance.
MMAGuru,
I still disagree, GSP pounded the crap out of Fitch, Penn and Alves. This fight actually reminded me a bit of the third Hughes fight, but most of his fights see him deliver a lot of damage, both standing and on the ground. I have not seen any other GSP fight that saw him do what he did at 111.
Even he has admitted he was determined to win by submission. He has openly said it was a big mistake and one that won’t be repeated. His own corner was getting on him and telling him to work his GnP. He spent a lot of time improving his BJJ and wanted to utilize it. Bad move because it simply is not at the same level as his other skills.
Jeremy, I think you should re-watch the Alves fight. You might think differently a second time. Fitch I agree, against Penn, he had an unfair advantage not allowing Penn to hold on.
mmaguru,
What unfair advantage did he have against Penn exactly? Please tell me you don’t believe in Greasegate. Sweat and vaseline get on everyone in the cage. There is probably more grease on the mat by the time of the main event that than there is on either competitor. It’s something both guys have to deal with – and it’s most detrimental to the person going for takedowns and trying to control the fight on the ground as GSP does. Besides, BJ does most of his sub work from top control, by putting him on his back GSP neutralized a lot of BJ’s tools.
Brain,
Again, I don’t think this was a poor performance based on the fight metric stats Jose posted. I am not “comparing” GSP to Fitch, I am contrasting their performances.
In GSP you have someone with a very dynamic ground game. We can go back and forth all day with “coulda, shoulda, woulda”. Maybe if he threw more strikes on the ground he coulda finished Hardy. Maybe if he threw more headkicks, maybe if… But the fact is that he elected to take Hardy down, try to submit him and in my opinion (and that’s all it is because I’m not Dan Hardy and I don’t know how close or tight those subs actually were, and neither does anyone else) he came damn close. He admitted he got a little tunnel vision with the subs, but that doesn’t change the fact that the “stay in the guard” strategy is absurd. Especially when the bottom man is throwing up triangles – the standard defense is to pass to side control at that point.
Diego,
I won’t get into a big ordeal about it, but yes the use of vaseline on any place of the body other than the face is illegal. Whether that changed the outcome of the fight is doubtful, whether it impacted the fight is for certain. Any advantage be it small or large is an advantage hence why the rule is in place.
In my opinion it had absolutely zero impact. Look at how GSP passes the guard of pretty much everyone he fights. It was no different with BJ. What made the difference was the size of GSP. He was huge compared to BJ. Much bigger than in their first fight. Which I guess is why BJ’s new ax to grind is that GSP is on steroids.
Meltzer is reporting an early estimate of 850K. If this is the case I would be surprised but not shocked. I still think it will land somewhere in the 600 to 700K range. Although the Canadian buys could push the normal numbers by another 50K.
Guru, if it’s the 850k number I will be shocked as hell and that’s a great number, I think the 6-700k number would be solid.