Welcome to another edition of Payout Perspective! This week we’ll be taking a look at Fedor’s Strikeforce debut on Showtime, titled “Fedor vs Werdum”, which took place in the HP Pavilion in San Jose, CA. The event featured 4 fights (1 title fight): Fedor Emelianenko vs. Fabricio Werdum, Cung Le vs. Scott Smith, Cris Cyborg (champ) vs Jan Finney at 145 lbs, and Josh Thomson vs. Pat Healy.
Fedor loses for first time in nearly a decade
I will provide a quote from Kelsey’s previous post “Fedor Loss Not the End of the World”:
He lost. He’s not the invincible machine that everyone thought. He’s human.
Is that not the beauty of this sport? Mixed martial arts has a way of mimicking the trials and tribulations of life in a manner that few sporting events can. The moment that Fedor decided to become more aggressive is the moment that he became perilously vulnerable. How often is that not the case in real life?
Forget the hyperbole you’re hearing. This is not the end of the world. Fedor lost, but losses happen – to everyone – in life and in sport. It’s the ability of someone to bounce back that really matters, and Fedor will have his opportunity.
That is why I’m inclined to think the situation is still very workable for Strikeforce. There was obviously interest in Fedor fighting Overeem, but there’s now probably even greater interest in Fedor fighting Werdum in an immediate rematch. Why? The fans will want to see whether Fedor’s loss was an aberration or a true representation of his fighting ability.
The key for Strikeforce here is to turn this situation into a positive. Before Fedor vs Werdum took place, everyone assumed that Werdum was nothing but a speed-bump to a potential mega-fight between Fedor and Alistair Overeem. Since Fedor lost, those plans have gone out the window, Werdum vs Overeem is the match-up that makes sense.
Well, not so fast. Everyone is talking about how shocking it was to see Fedor lose his first fight in a decade, specially in the manner that it did. The buzz around this weekends event is high and people want to see the rematch to see if it was a “fluke”. Instead of having just one fight to look forward to, it’s Strikeforce’s job now to market this rematch between Fedor and Werdum as “the most anticipated rematch in the history of MMA”. Putting on this fight on PPV or on CBS and having the winner face the Strikeforce Champ (in a perfect world scenario) is obviously the way to go here.
Fedor’s Fall Return?
I will again provide a quote from Kelsey:
The question is not, will Fedor be back or will the fans be interested, but what will Strikeforce do to leverage Fedor’s next, and potentially last, fight to improve the organization? The company cannot afford to have this fight accomplish nothing; to have this fight become another one-off that leads to zero gain in terms of awareness, interest, and product consumption. If Strikeforce is going to leverage Fedor in any way, the preparation has to start now.
The first step is to address the Strikeforce roster. The company has been working to sign some really great talent, but none of them have really been given the opportunity to fight on the big stage. If Fedor is gone after this next fight (worst case scenario), then who fills the void? The organization can’t ride UFC and Pride retreads into the limelight.
An obvious solution is to devote more time to showcasing homegrown or emerging talent. The forthcoming middleweight tournament is a perfect avenue to do so, but what beyond that is my question. There needs to be some sort of matchmaking structure and hierarchy that pushes these young guys up the ladder and into more prominent roles within each division.
Strikeforce has the roster to create stars, the problem is their inability to do so through Showtime and CBS so far. By default, Fabricio Werdum will now and forever be known as the first guy to really defeat Fedor. Strikeforce has to make a strong push using this angle for the rematch. Fedor’s sell will be quite easy, and should capture everyone’s attention. Will the greatest HW of all time be able to regain his old form or are his prime years behind him? That angle should be good enough to have a successful show whether they have it on CBS or on PPV, that is as long is they also add some buzz creators on there like a Gina or Walker.
Another great boost for a fall event is the release of EA Sports MMA. The release of the game should give an added boost to the brand and it’s fighters. Creating buzz between both events and synergy for a big fall event. The UFC has done this twice now with the release of UFC Undisputed 2009 last year and around the Rashad Evans vs Rampage Jackson fight this year, both considered very successful shows.
What to make of the Strikeforce HW division
If Strikeforce plays their cards right, they can take Overeem (Strikeforce Champ), Werdum (who now has victories against Overeem and Fedor), and Fedor (waiting to avenge his loss and be crown the best HW in MMA again) and build these fighters up to have huge fights amongst each other. What about the rest of the HW division you ask? Well, take a look at this. Antonio Silva lost a heart breaker to Werdum, so one more solid victory can definitely put him on the driver seat for a title match.
Recently signed HW Sergei Kharitonov has victories over both Overeem and Werdum (you couldn’t write a better storyline for an instant contender), and others like Arlovski and Brett Rogers have some recognition but need to be built back up. While the top of the division unfolds, HW prospects like Daniel Cormier, Shane Del Rosario and Lavar Johnson should use this time to further develop into future contenders. The wild card in the division are the likes of Bobby Lashley and Herschel Walker, who will give whatever event they participate in a boost of interest to the casual fan and mainstream.
Questions that still linger
Quoting Kelsey again:
The other problem is PR. I’ve harped on it before, and I’ll do it again: there’s no consistent information flow between the organization and the fan base. The information gaps might be excusable if Strikeforce were only running four shows a year, but it’s running at least one show per month. Where is the content? This absolutely HAS to change. Strikeforce needs to be communicating with its fans, telling stories and driving interest in its product.
The Challengers Series is just sitting there for all intents and purposes. With the exception of last week, the series has yet to really gain any sort of traction with the fans, the media, or even Strikeforce itself. The organization should be using these monthly events as a way to develop a consistent relationship with the fans.
I think a lot of the dissatisfaction towards Strikeforce has been their lack of consistency and communication to both the media and fans. There needs to be some sort of medium other than fight night for fans to care about the fighters and promotion. UFC does a great job at doing this through Spike TV programming (TUF, Unleashed, Prime Time specials, etc) and social media, utilizing it for updates and one-on-one interaction with fans using websites such as Twitter and Facebook. Giving the fans and media a sense of acknowledgment and importance really goes a long way to creating a dedicated fan-base, which will ultimately drive up the brand and success.
***
Sponsorship watch
It was a really interesting night on the sponsorship side, specifically compared to their Strikeforce Los Angeles show.
EA Sports MMA and GoDaddy.com continued to be major sponsors to Strikeforce along with now veterans Full Tilt Poker and Rockstar Energy Drinks. The new kids on the block were Clinch Gear and GameFly (who purchased commercial slots in the Nashville CBS show earlier this year) on the mat.
If you recall from Kelsey’s post, Tapout was supposed to sponsor Fedor for the event but the deal was nixed last minute due to pressure being placed by the UFC to ban them from the Octogon if they went ahead with the sponsor. Needless to say, Fedor and M-1 were not to pleased with the situation, but Clinch Gear picked up where Tapout left off and sponsored Fedor for the event. Due to this last minute ordeal, Clinch Gear’s role in the event increased significantly. A source at the event told met that Clinch Gear did a great job selling their gear because it seemed like every other fan was sporting a Fedor shirt that night.
As I pointed back in the Strikeforce Los Angeles write-up, BestBuy appeared to be a local sponsor on the mat tied to the EA Sports MMA logo. BestBuy was indeed gone from this event. On the other hand, GameFly had big role as a sponsor, where it’s logo could be seen on the mat and on the cage. It appears that more sponsors are starting to jump on Strikeforce, which can only be a positive for their future events and possibly their return to CBS.
Another big winner in the event was Cage Hero, which heavily sponsored Cung Le and his corner as you can see in the picture above (Channing Tatum). It also had heavy advertisement on MMAJunkie heading into the fight. Cage Hero also sponsors Strikeforce MW prospect Luke Rockhold, who is expected to make his return in August in the upcoming Houston event.
As I mentioned before, BlowOutCards.com was another winner in the show. They sponsored Jan Finney in her 145 lbs fight against Strikeforce champion Cris Cyborg, who incredibly made it to the second round after taking an incredible amount of punishment in the first. Great display of heart and courage by her, though many felt the fight should have been stopped in the first round.
Celebrity watch
It has been an interesting trend to monitor, but more and more celebrities are starting to attend Strikeforce events. When I attended Strikeforce in Los Angeles, I was shocked at how many celebrities were in attendance, but I assumed it had more to do with the event itself being in Los Angeles. Needless to say I wasn’t expecting that in San Jose, and I was completely wrong. Actors Channing Tatum, Micky Rourke, Forest Whitaker and many other professional athletes were reported to be in attendance. This is something interesting to keep an eye out on for future events.
Actor Forest Whitaker was so caught up in the moment of Werdum beating Fedor, that he was spotted celebrating with Werdum’s entourage backstage (picture above).
Ratings, Gate, and Attendance
The reported attendance for the event was 12,698 total (11, 757 paid, 941 in luxury boxes) with a gate of $1,066,739.00. If our numbers are correct, this would be their second gate ever over 1 million dollars, which is always a good sign. That attendance number is the sixth biggest attendance and second biggest gate in Strikeforce history.
The ratings are still being sorted at the moment, but MMAJunkie is reporting that the ratings are up 56% from the last Showtime televised event and garnered the third-highest rated Strikeforce event on Showtime.
Early estimates for this past weekend’s historic “Strikeforce and M-1 Global: Fedor vs. Werdum” co-promoted event put the average Showtime viewership at approximately 550,000 viewers when including DVR and on-demand figures.
…
As is typical for mixed martial arts broadcasts, the viewership increased throughout the broadcast, and the ratings peaked during the main event between Fedor Emelianenko and Fabricio Werdum with a 2.1 household rating and more than 700,000 viewers when factoring in DVR and on-demand data.
Contrary to those numbers, SpikeTV has a press release which states that the Strikeforce show garnered a 1.38HH rating with an average viewership of 412K while drawing a 1.39 in M18-34 and 1.2 in M18-49.
Since the SpikeTV release, Dave Meltzer has reported updated ratings for the event, which he states as doing a 1.5 HH rating with a viewership of 492k. The main event peaked at a 2.1 HH and garnered 700K viewers. The show itself did a 1.48 in Males 18-34 and 1.08 in Males 35-49.
Fighter Payouts
Fabricio Werdum: $100,000
def. Fedor Emelianenko: $400,000
Cung Le: $100,000
def. Scott Smith: $55,000
Cristiane “Cyborg” Santos: $35,000 (includes $15,000 win bonus and $5,000 champion bonus)
def. Jan Finney: $6,000
Josh Thomson: $60,000
def. Pat Healy: $8,000
Chris Cope: $3,000 ($1,000 win bonus)
def. Ron Keslar: $1,500
Bret Bergmark: $3,000 ($1,500 win bonus)
def. Vagner Rocha: $2,500
Yancey Medeiros: $8,000 ($4,000 win bonus)
def. Gareth Joseph: $2,000
Bobby Stack: $2,800 ($1,500 win bonus)
def. Derrick Burnsed: $2,000
Total: $789,000.
HT: MMAJunkie
Event Notes:
- Josh Gross: Fabricio Werdum signed a three-fight extension with Strikeforce prior to the Fedor fight, so he’s not going anywhere for a while.
- ESPN: Fabricio Werdum makes ESPN‘s Ford Cross-Sport Power Rankings, ranked #3 in poll. Reason given by ESPN: “He beat a guy who hasn’t lost since 2000. Enough said.””
GREAT piece mate (as always). 🙂
Cyborg makes a lot less than I would have thought.
you guys should take a closer look at showtime’s ratings…since they are not advertiser supported and thus don’t sell their numbers, they can slice up their ratings and report them any way they want…in this case, they actually pulled out the entire Frank Shamrock reirement segment (the lowest rated portion of the broadcast) labelled it an “interstitial” and took it out of their overall broadcast numbers to make their full broadcast numbers look better.
Thank’s for the support! From CAGEHERO
Strikeforce needs to be very cautious about setting up Fedor’s next fight. A rematch with Werdum sounds intriguing, but if that’s the route that Strikeforce decides to go than they need to workout a contract extension for Fedor prior to this fight taking place. Otherwise they run the risk of Fedor defeating Werdum on the last fight of his contract, then possibly leaving the organization, leaving Strikeforce without a challenger for Alistair Overeem. Either secure an extension on Fedor’s contract (who am I kidding, it would have to be a brand new contract with months of “tweeking” by M-1 Global), or have Werdum challenge Overeem for the title. If they give Fedor a rematch with no contract extension, then shame Strikeforce, shame…
As for Cyborg’s salary, it’s all market forces, ty. She’s just not a substantial draw, and there’s no one else who will offer her more.
Good perspective, thanks.
Good point MV. They have a little bit of leverage on Fedor now because for the first time they have something HE wants – the chance to avenge a loss. This is when they should go back to the negotiation table, and if M-1 want to drag their feet and play hardball, SF can proceed with the Werdum-Overeem fight in the fall while Fedor sits out for a while. Antonio Silva looked good against Arlovski (for what that’s worth these days) so maybe you put him up against Kharitanov in the undercard for a #1 contenders bout. Basically they need to show M-1 that SF cards are no longer going to revolve around Fedor’s anemic fight schedule and if he doesn’t want to play ball, the promotion can and will move on without him.
Here’s to hoping this works as a wake up call for M-1.
Machiel Van is spot on. I would not give Fedor a rematch until he solidifies his contract and gets a win. This would be the biggest mistake and the nail in the coffin for Strikeforce if Coker lets M1 get away with dictating the terms. Strikeforce has the upper hand and to lose that would be like giving away the bank.
CBS – Fall
Werdum vs Overeem for the title
Fedor vs Big Foot
is the better way to go.
Just to be clear, when I say “nail in the coffin”, I do not trust M1’s intentions. They used Fedor’s aura as leverage to get undeserved brand recognition for their fleeting ORG. They also took Coker to task renegotiating what was said to be a sound contract.
The thinking on M1’s end is that if Fedor gets a rematch with Werdum and wins his aura is returned and the original fight was some kind of “fluke” win which is absurd. Werdum easily defeated Fedor using the tools he excels in. It’s not a rookie mistake that Fedor just got “caught”. This is in no way comparable to Frank Mir / Lesnar’s first fight. Fedor has been fighting for years. He got beat and he got beat soundly. No controversy there. GSP didn’t get an immediate rematch after his loss to Serra and was beat soundly.
It’s time for Coker to get tough with M1 as he did and is doing with Jack Shields. It’s time for Coker to build up his fighters and not worry so much about building up another ORGs fighters. Scenario – Coker gives M1 the rematch, Fedor wins, Fedor/M1 walk to the UFC, Coker left wondering what just happened.
That’s my 2 cents for now.
I don’t think I’ve been so passionate about something MMA related as I am bout this and believe me, I’m a Fedor fan.
marty michaels:
We try our best, but because they don’t release their ratings, we go off whatever sources release them. SpikeTV will obviously release Strikeforce ratings that would benefit them, same for Showtime, so I usually wait to see what Meltzer releases, which I posted above.
Larsenator: Anytime 🙂
mmaguru, Machiel Van:
What Fedor decides to do after his 3rd fight will have a BIG impact in the MMA world. I would try to get him to sign an extension before his 3rd fight, but I find that unlikely, unless Strikeforce has really gained the upper-hand after the loss.
Jose,
I like your idea about the CBS match ups, but I think there is a big X factor. Like it or not, the casual fan was never overly familiar with Fedor, he did good CBS ratings, but Kimbo and Gina beat him, he did good Showtime ratings (taking Meltzer’s numbers), but not great, again beat by Gina… so “most anticipated rematch in MMA history” won’t sell IMO, especially when Dana will run around flaunting Werdum’s 2-2 record in the UFC and having spike routinely run JDS highlight reeling him. I will not get into the merits of those arguments because it doesn’t matter, the casual fan believes what Zuffa says for the most part and I think it’s logical to conclude that’s how Dana would fight hyping that rematch.
Also, there is no possible way SF can heavily promote Fedor without an extension, it would be a terrible decision, IMO. A win puts all the leverage back in his court since he would be a FA.
The best news I’ve seen for SF is that Walker is training for a fall return, again, like it or not, he would draw big ratings to a CBS card, especially since it’s a natural cross promotion with CBS’s NFL audience, that would get them a huge audience of casual fans which they desperately need.
No extension should = no rematch. Anything else is folly. I really like mmaguru’s suggestion for the fall CBS card. It puts Fedor on the card, and while he lost he’s still a draw. It allows for a heavyweight title fight, and if Fedor wins it will allow for either the Fedor/Werdum rematch to be for the heavyweight title, or for the Fedor/Overeem title fight that fans wanted, and would still be a huge fight. That way if Fedor walks away from Strikeforce, they will not have lost out on a heavyweight title fight, and will have established that they will no longer bow to the will of M-1 Global. If Fedor/M-1 Global declines a bout with Antonio Silva, let him sit out or leave. That would at least allow for another heavyweight contender in Silva. Fedor’s only other option if he wishes to remain relevant in the MMA landscape would be to sign with Zuffa, but even then Strikeforce will be holding the only man to legitimately beat him.
SF is trying to mislead people of their ratings. Noone uses the 24 hour Tivo ratings very often. To release those numbers and some media try to spin it like Spike TV was wrong is dirty. The first ratings are what most seem to go by and have for ever. Naybe there is a new trend where some use the Tivo ratings but one is no better than the other. Fact is both Spike TV s UFC show and SF was Tivo’ed. People trying to compare SFs Tivo ratings to UFC iwthout Tivo is a joke.
Also doing a instant rematch with Fedor vs Werdum is why SF match making sucks. They have a chance to quickly add credibility to their belt and they choose to dick around. Werdum will not win a rematch everyone knows this and noone cares to see the rematch so soon. There is plenty of time for a rematch later. If Werdum wins again Fedor is completely done. Werdum isnt that good at this point. If Werdum then beat Overeem(unlikely) then Fedor is the Rich Franklin of the HW division. You cant set up a third fight. I guess SF can as their dont really put much thought in their match ups and have no credibility anyway.
Stan Kosek:
I agree, I think everyone is pretty aware now that you need someone like Gina, Kimbo, Herschel Walker, etc on network TV to get ratings. What my suggestion was is to sell the event as the biggest rematch in MMA history, but also support the card with someone like Herschel Walker or Gina Carano.
Also, Strikeforce/Showtime/CBS are slowly building their own fanbase (which is key to their success in the future). Dana and the UFC can hype the event how ever they want, but it doesn’t mean people (casuals) won’t watch if they get curious about the matchups.
When you are dealing with primetime and network TV, it is more about getting the casual fans attention than it is selling it to the MMA hardcore fanbase, because frankly, most will watch anyways.
Brain:
Not sure why you are mentioning 24 hour TV ratings, etc, when I posted 3 different sets of ratings, last and most important from Meltzer. The consensus is that they got around 500K viewers and a 1.5HH, which is good (not great, not bad). Only ratings that beat this card are cards with Kimbo, Gina, and Walker… which is expected since they are bigger stars in the States.
An immediate rematch would do better business as a one-off, but if Strikeforce wants to be viable long-term they need to start operating in a forward-thinking manner. They need to establish some sort of hierarchy (which I’ll admit is very difficult considering their limited roster) that fighters and fans can follow. They really need to stop doing things like giving a title shot to a fighter coming of of a loss, announcing a number one contender match for two divisions in the form of a catchweight fight, and above all exercise some control over their fighters and, for the love of God, discuss their future plans with fighters before key bouts. It just looks so awful that they set up Sobral vs Lawler as a #1 contender match, then when Sobral won he revealed he refuses to fight the champion, which made the match pointless and took away Robbie Lawler’s momentum heading into their supposed middleweight tournament. Speaking of the middleweight tournament, they then booked the Scott Smith vs Cung Le rematch, which damaged Scott Smith’s momentum coming into the tournament, and now have a fighter in Cung Le who expressed he has no interest in participating in the tournament. So Strikeforce effectively killed the momentum of two of its most prominent middleweights going into their middleweight tournament, and gained ? Oh wait they gained nothing because Sobral beat a middleweight and lost to the man Lawal already beat anyway, and Le won’t fight in the middleweight tournament.
This matchmaking goes nowhere, and leads to problems. There should be no middleweight tournament, and Jacare Souza should fight for the belt against someone… oh, wait, there is no one because Strikeforce allowed Smith and Lawler to lose, Henderson lost, Shields will leave and Le has no interest. This should be a lesson to Scott Coker. Please take heed.
Michael Van, your spot on. You should be consulting those guys and maybe then I’d have some hope for Strikeforce.
Stan, very valid points. Your thoughts are how I feel about the situation
Brian, the numbers game is an interesting one. On one hand Showtime claim that ratings are not key for their programming, yet they release a set, the numbers are contested and there seems to be a lot of hupla about these ratings and diverging numbers. I would suspect the numbers are considered a modest success in any case as Fedor is not Gina/Hershal/Kimbo etc.
mmaguru:
Showtime does not release their ratings, its other sources that are doing so. Like I said, I will take Meltzer’s ratings here and in most cases.
Updated with picture of Forest Whitaker celebrating with Fabricio Werdum’s camp backstage and new attendance figures from Dave Meltzer.
The reported attendance for the event was 12,698 total (11,757 paid, 941 in luxury boxes) with a gate of $1,066,739.00. The main event peaked at 700K viewers and did a 2.1 rating.
Thanks for the clarification Jose,
If 700K peak is correct, that would be an amazing number
mmaguru:
That 700K viewer peak is in fact correct. Gina vs Cyborg (which did great numbers for showtime) peaked at 856K.
I think SF should pay Kelsey a consulting fee for giving them sound and informed advice. He pretty much wills Coker to step up and take his biz from a provincial identity to the place it has the opportunity to be. Coker needs to let somebody w/ some nuts run with it-I think he is afraid of the success SF has the potential to become at this moment.
Jose. Im not commenting on numbers being good or bad. My beef is with them using numbers most people dont use. Thats the DVR replay numbers. Spike had a press release with SF numbers. SF counters with “rarely used” numbers to make it look like Spike lied. When UFC ratings are reported they rarely ever use DVR numbers. When they are mentioned its used along side regular tv ratings. DVR numbers are ALWAYS higher. Throwing them out there when few are using them is to mislead people into thinking the numbers were better than they were. Not that they were bad to begin with. Even worse as it seems it was done in response to the Spike release.
Brain,
I’m not sure it was SF who released the numbers but I could be wrong. Showtime does not sell ad space, so they don’t care if their subscribers watch the show live or DVR it or watch it later on Showtime On Demand, as long as their subscribers get value from the show they’re happy. They know those subscribers won’t cancel Showtime.
Spike sells ad space, and companies know that anyone who DVRd the show is skipping the commercials, so Spike has to care about that difference because their advertisers care.
And I’m not sure those numbers were released in order to make Spike look like liars, or if they were even released by SF and Showtime. There are always differing estimates of ratings early on and networks will grab the numbers that suit them. I agree that Meltzer’s numbers are probably the most accurate. I don’t know how he gets them, but he gets them.
Brain:
Like Diego said above, the numbers which include DVR numbers weren’t released by Strikeforce or Showtime, they were reported by MMAJunkie through their “sources”.
There was no ratings PR sent out by Showtime or Strikeforce. The main numbers I am reporting are the ones by Meltzer, who has his own independent sources.
I assumed Junkie was getting them info from SF like they do press releases. If im wrong then my beef is with Junkie then. I dont see why they use DVR numbers for SF and not for UFC. It is not the norm for them to use those numbers. I agree with what Diego said. But DVR helps the UFC with advertisers too. They might not be as meaningful as SFs due to no advertisers. But we are talking success of each show based on ratings. Lots of people DVR’ed the UFC just as there was SF. Thats why these numbers are reported anyway is to gage their success. So why is 2 different sets of numbers used? To me is seems Junkie or who ever is at fault is purposely misleading people.
fedor only has one fight left on his strikeforce contract