Late last year, the UFC announced that Polymarket would be a sponsor for the UFC in 2026. Polymarket, one of the leaders in prediction market technology, faces hurdles as the new niche industry is scrutinized as a work-around for gambling.
What is Polymarket?
The company, based out of New York, operates as a blockchain-based prediction market for real-world events, suing the Polygon network and USDC stablecoin for trading. The interface allows individuals to place bets on future events. The partnership with the UFC would allow for the company to operate with the UFC and its events. Ideally, fans of the UFC could purchase real-time contracts on fights that they are watching (e.g., winners/losers, what round a fight may end, etc.)
The company was founded by Shayne Coplan in 2020. In 2025, it was reported that he became the world’s youngest self-made billionaire. Polymarket facilitated over $3.32 billion in bets during the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.
How it Works?
Polymarket creates markets for future events with “Yes” or “No” outcomes. Share prices range between $0.01 to $1.00. The price of a share reflects the markets perceived probability. Once the event happens, Yes shares become worth $1 and No shares are worth $0. If it doesn’t happen Yes shares are $0 and No shares are $1.
For the UFC model, Polymarket may ask the winner of a fight. For example, on January 5th Polymarket had the Justin Gaethje fight against Paddy Pimblett available to invest. Purchasing a Gaethje contract (i.e., Justin would win) costs $0.49 while Pimblett’s contract is $0.67.
Unlike the stock market, the contracts on Polymarket fluctuate based on the demand of users. Therefore, a fighter’s contract may be more expensive (i.e. favorite) than his/her opponent simply based on the popularity.
Individuals profit by selling shares for more than they paid or by holding shares that resolve to $1.
Problems
Sportico reports that Polymarket has had issues with fully launching in the U.S. A significant benchmark for this was its inability to participate in any of the 2025 NFL Regular Season. Meanwhile, Kalshi, a rival predictions market company set a record “for betting volume during Christmas week…” Polymarket’s regulatory issues in the U.S. has been ongoing after serving a three-year ban for operating without a proper registration. While signs pointed to it launching in the U.S. this fall, it has been “invite-only”.
Per Sportico, “Polymarket uses a controversial, cryptocurrency-based voting system to resolve bets on its global app, meaning the company did not determine the result itself.”
Despite Polymarket’s growth internationally, there still remains questions in the U.S.
It’s worth noting that recently a Polymarket user made more than $400,000 in profits betting on a U.S. invasion of Venezuela and capturing its president just 24 hours before the operation occurred. An “insider trading” situation could occur. Recall, James Krause was excommunicated from the UFC, because he did not report an injury of one of his fighters. We’ve already seen the UFC deal with these types of situations in 2025. Multiple fighters came out to state that they had been approached about throwing a fight. With the work-around that Polymarket is a predictions market and not gambling, could it make it harder to regulate the integrity of the predictions market.
It will be interesting to see how the UFC will implement Polymarket into its telecast and how much, if any, it will take away from the gambling already heavily marketed during its events.
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