MMA Payout takes a look back at the prior PPV history of UFC 158’s main event fighters. The quick conclusion is that the success of the PPV boils down to GSP.
GSP
UFC 87 625,000 (vs. Jon Fitch)
UFC 94 920,000 (vs. BJ Penn II)
UFC 100 1.6M (vs. Thiago Alves)
UFC 111 770,000 (vs. Dan Hardy)
UFC 124 785,000 (vs. Josh Koscheck)
UFC 129 800,000 (vs. Jake Shields)
UFC 154 700,000 (vs. Carlos Condit)
The bell cow when it comes to UFC PPVs. With Brock Lesnar in the WWE, Georges St. Pierre is the King of UFC PPVs. I decided to start the list from his first title defense after winning the belt from Matt Serra at UFC 83. Notably, UFC 87 also marked the first UFC win for Brock Lesnar. GSP and Lesnar also appeared on the same card at UFC 100.
GSP’s average PPV buy rate since he’s had the welterweight title: ~886K. Of course, this includes UFC 100 and 129 but that should tell you that when the UFC has a major event, Georges St. Pierre will be on the card.
Nick Diaz
UFC 143 400,000 (Carlos Condit)
UFC 137 280,000 (vs. BJ Penn)
Only two entries for Diaz since he entered the UFC from Strikeforce. You recall UFC 137 was the event he was supposed to fight GSP and then was taken off the card only to be put back on after an injury to GSP caused a major reshuffle. Diaz is a polarizing figure and if he ever decides to “play the game” he has an appealing style that the casual fan could appreciate.
Johny Hendricks
UFC 133 310,000 (vs. Mike Pierce)
UFC 141 535,000 (vs. Jon Fitch)
UFC 154 700,000 (vs. Martin Kampman)
Carlos Condit
UFC 132 320,000 (vs. Kim Dong-Hyun)
UFC 143 400,000 (vs. Diaz)
UFC 154 700,000 (vs. GSP)
Not much to say about Hendricks-Condit at this point. Both were on UFC 154 and Hendricks was on a Brock Lesnar card (141) hence the good buy rate. The winner of this match-up may have to wait until 2014 to get a shot at GSP assuming he wins and goes on to fight Anderson Silva later this year.
Payout Perspective:
GSP should have this PPV around 700K buys. A ticked off GSP (or rattled depending on how you view it) against Nick Diaz could have it pushing higher. Diaz speaking at the teleconference and presser could only help the hype for people to buy this event.
I wont lie, Im into this fight
This is a big fight because fans have been wanting to see it for a while now.
Diaz lost by a very slim margin against Condit–and many fans thought Diaz won the fight. Condit went on to a title shot from that fight. If Diaz had won, he would have gotten the title shot.
In my mind, Diaz and Hendricks are about equal in their top contender status.
Hendricks was very impressive with his KO’s of Fitch and Kampman, but he also lost to Rick Story not so long ago–and he had split decisions against Pierce and Koscheck.
And Hendricks is assured of a title shot now if he wins.
It was smart of GSP to pick Diaz while his Best Before Date was still valid. While Diaz does not pull big PPV’s by himself–paired with GSP it should bump up the PPV take.
We will see when the numbers come out. Any numbers over 700-750 thousand PPVs will be due to GSP’s choice of opponents. People like GSP, as the PPV numbers testify–but fans want to see interesting opponents which challenge the champ. Ironically, GSP’s mistake of getting caught by a shin to the head in his last fight with Condit actually made the fight more exciting to fans.
GSP’s main problem in the last few years has been his dominance. Close fights are exciting fights.
codemaster, Hendricks is by far more scary than Diaz. To beat Diaz fighters just need to avoid fighting Diaz’s fight. If GSP was looking for the best possible opponent in order to increase PPV buys based entirely on the matchup, he’d have been smart to want Hendricks.
Anyone that watched the Condit fight knew Diaz lost. His post-fight whining was as damning as much as it was intelligent. He cried that he didn’t look hurt so how could he have lost the fight. Condit also wasn’t hurt, so clearly he couldn’t have lost by Diaz’s own ramblings. Diaz offered nothing in the fight, and the scorecards ALL showed it.
GSPs main problem has been the fans whining about finishes. He opted not to Mir Hardy with the hold in tight. Hardy should have tapped, he was finished. How the Fitch fight wasn’t stopped is more of a mystery than how Lesnar was allowed to continue against Carwin. He had the choice to do serious, suggesting the shattered orbital wasn’t serious, damage to Josh and opted to make the fight be less permanent on Josh’s body.
His problem isn’t as much dominance as it is boxing fans wanting to morph MMA into their sport. When boxing fans understand there’s more to MMA than highlight reel knockouts, “fans” will be less pouty about dominant performances.