Dave Meltzer of the Wrestling Observer (paid subscription) passes along the latest trending estimate for UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones:
Our earliest PPV estimates, and keep in mind anything this early is just an estimate, have ranged from 415,000 to 470,000, with the average being 445,000. If those numbers hold up, that would be considerably lower than most estimates people had going in. Usually UFC outdistances the estimates people have going in based on strong late hype. This didn’t have it. The Countdown special was very good, but it had less of an audience than usual.
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It was based around Jones winning the title and while he absolutely has potential to be the next GSP, it’s happened so fast and nothing he’s headlined has put up big numbers yet.
Meltzer also passes along the latest numbers for UFC 127: Fitch vs Penn, which took place in Australia:
Latest numbers for UFC 127 are estimated at about 260,000 buys, or almost identical to UFC 125. Not surprisingly, the places with the most interest were Hawaii (because of B.J. Penn, who headlined against Jon Fitch) and Australia (where the show took place). Strongest PPV markets appear to be Honolulu, Sydney, Calgary, Melbourne, Brisbane, Toronto, Vancouver, Dallas, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Las Vegas, Sacramento, Los Angeles, San Diego and Seattle.
Payout Perspective:
UFC 127 looks to have performed according to expectations, which were low for the event considering that it took place in Australia and John Fitch versus BJ Penn was the main event. Not much here to note, although one may argue that BJ Penn being a draw may have been affected with his last 2 losses to Frankie Edgar and now coming off a draw, taking the immediate rematch with Fitch, which will be interesting to see what type of numbers that card does. We figure the card will be stacked with other great fights, a luxury they did not have for UFC 127.
For UFC 128, many predicted the show would do over 500K PPV buys, that does not appear to be the case. The initial main event between Shogun and Evans was not a hot ticket at all with little hype, which is why the UFC inserted Jon Jones to the main-event after Evans suffered an injury. Jones had a major marketing push after he defeated Ryan Bader and being a local product of the New York area helped the UFC push to boost ticket sales, buzz, and PPV buys. With the extra push, the event drew an attendance of 12,619 and a gate of 2.43 million. To this point, everything that Jones has been featured on hasn’t done particularly well in regards of ratings, gate, or PPV buys. With that said, after a dominating performance over former champ Shogun Rua and the continuing marketing push that Zuffa is providing, you would have to figure that his next PPV event he headlines will do much better than the type of numbers he has done before.
LATEST PPV BUYS:
UFC 128: Rua vs Jones – 415,000 – 470,000 (~445K)
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch – 260,000
UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort – 700,000 – 750,000 (~725K)
UFC 125: Edgar vs Maynard – 270,000
UFC 124: GSP vs Koscheck – 785,000
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida – 500,000
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez – 1,050,000
Some people are laying the PPV numbers on Jones… um… Shogun was the champ and a “name” in MMA. Why aren’t people saying, “Man Shogun isn’t that much of a draw”.
Excellent writeup Jose. El Chango, I think you make sense, but Jones was the guy they hyped up and had the “In the Moment” special. I think you can’t lay it on Jones or Rua but the card as a whole. I think there needs to be a strong undercard in PPVs where Silva, GSP or Lesnar are not on the card.
With that being said, I think Faber will eventually be a strong attraction but needs to be introduced to the UFC fans.
el chango:
Most people are aware that Shogun is no really a draw. He had good numbers for the Machida rematch (500K+ buys) but that had a storyline going in to the bout, first bout didn’t do amazing numbers. His fight against Jones literally only had a few weeks to build and the UFC did it by just pumping up Jones.
I love John Jones but like in professional wrestling Afro-Americans and non North Americans do not draw to the level of Caucasians plain and simple. Brock lesnar and St Pierre lead the way because of their talent but it does not hurt being white. The UFC fan base is predominately white and middle class these athletes are easily identifiable to them.