UFC 111 Buyrate Prediction: 700,000

MMAPayout.com uses statistical regression analysis to match both the viewership numbers from Spike TV’s Countdown to UFC and the live gate figures reported by athletic commissions against the PPV buyrate numbers for each UFC event. The analysis produces a linear equation, which can then be used to take new Countdown or gate information and predict a PPV outcome.

The Data

We’ll only be using UFC 111’s live gate figure in our regression analysis, because the Countdown show was cut down to just 30 minutes on account of the 90 minutes used over three consecutive weeks to air UFC Primetime: GSP vs. Hardy.

Dana White reported that gate figure to be just over $4 million.

The Prediction: 700,000

The prediction process starts with the data set below; each symbol represents the PPV figure (vertical axis) and live gate figure (horizontal axis) for an event in the last five years.

Then the numbers are plugged into a regression analysis formula to derive a linear line through the data set, which allows us to pick a certain live gate value (on the horizontal axis) and find the corresponding PPV prediction value (on the vertical axis):

When we plug in $4 million into the linear equation – represented by the red line above – and we’re given a value of 709,000 PPV buys.

The Argument for 700,000:

The live gate for this event was very strong. Only eight UFC events have ever eclipsed $4 million in gate revenue; and, the lowest buyrate of any of those events was 530,000 (UFC 83 in Montreal) with the average being 775,000 buys. I expect the final gate figure to be in the low $4 million range, thus 700,000 seems to fit.

UFC Primetime: GSP vs. Hardy started out extremely well by drawing an average viewership of 1,000,000 in its debut episode; a rating higher than what any of the three previous GSP vs. Penn episodes had managed to draw. But the second episode dipped by nearly 50% (506,000) to the disappointment of many people who believed it was perhaps a sign of disinterest in the fight.

However, in the end, the three episode total drew 2,119,000 viewers, which is only ~250,000 shy of the 2,367,000 that GSP vs. Penn managed to generate. It’s probably unfair to say that GSP vs. Hardy will do close to the 920,000 that UFC 94 did, but the proximity of the total interest between the two tells me that 700k is reasonable.

Moreover, the UFC really put a lot of marketing muscle behind this event than say UFC 107 which did 650,000 buys. In addition to Primetime, the company spent a ton of money on advertising, cranked up its use of social media, and really went on a PR blitz during fight week (UFC on Versus, UFC Unleashed, numerous Q&A sessions, ESPN interviews, etc.).

The Argument Against 700,000:

The flip side to the 700k argument is that UFC 111 was not the beneficiary of any sort of feel-good UFC momentum: the last two or three fight cards have been duds where the PPV buyrates are concerned. This is something that can go both ways: either the UFC benefits because people are starved for a good show, or the UFC is hurt because people have tuned out and lost interest over the last three months.

Additionally, it’s worth mentioning that the UFC may have lost some business to the WWE on Sunday with Wrestlemania – perhaps the only event of the year that’s capable of upstaging the UFC.

Tapology Predicts 650,000:

Greg Saks over at Tapology uses a different system – one based on interest or buzz on the internet – to predict the buyrate figure for each UFC event. Be sure to check out his great and detailed work!