UFC 108: Payout Perspective

Welcome to another edition of Payout Perspective!

This week we take a look at UFC 108 which was held at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday, January 2nd. The first major card of the new calendar year featured a bout between light heavyweight contenders Rashad Evans and Thiago Silva as well as the appearances of Paul Daley, Junior Dos Santos,  and Joe Lauzon.

UFC 108 by the Numbers:

Attendance

Tickets sold: 8,004
Gate: $1,969,670

Tickets Comped:  4,373
Value of Comped: $1,005,000.00

Total attendance: 12,377

Disclosed Fighter Payouts

Main Event:

Rashad Evans: $375,000 ($175,000 win bonus) def. Thiago Silva: $55,000

Main Card:

Paul Daley: $34,200* ($18,000 win bonus) def. Dustin Hazelett: $19,800*
Sam Stout: $24,000 ($12,000 win bonus) def. Joe Lauzon: $12,000
Jim Miller: $30,000 ($15,000 win bonus) def. Duane “Bang” Ludwig: $12,000
Junior Dos Santos: $60,000 ($30,000 win bonus) def. Gilbert Yvel: $30,000

Under Card:

Martin Kampmann: $46,000 ($23,000 win bonus) def. Jacob Volkmann: $6,000
Cole Miller: $24,000 ($12,000 win bonus) def. Dan Lauzon: $15,000
Mark Munoz: $32,000 (16,000 win bonus) def. Ryan Jensen: $6,000
Jake Ellenberger: $20,000 ($10,000 win bonus) def. Mike Pyle: $17,000
Rafaello Oliveira: $20,000 ($10,000 win bonus) def. John Gunderson: $5,000

Total Disclosed Payouts: $843,000

Disclosed Fighter Bonuses

Fight of the Night: Joe Lauzon vs. Sam Stout ($50,000 each)
KO of the Night: Paul Daley ($50,000)
Submission of the Night: Cole Miller ($50,000)

MMAPayout.com Buyrate Prediction

A weighted average statistical regression analysis of two different variables – viewership in Countdown to UFC and live gate revenue across 30-40 events – was used to derive a linear equation that allows us to input UFC 108’s respective Countdown viewership (559,000) and live gate revenue ($2 million) in order to determine an expected buyrate figure for the event:

• Countdown Prediction: 488,000
• Live Gate: 400,000
• Weighted average: 444,000 buys

The range is a pretty good estimate of where the PPV is expected to land – even Dana White has commented that he expects the show to do 400-500k. You may remember the range was pretty large last time, but that was seemingly the result of the company’s lowest North American gate in nearly two years skewing the real interest for the show.

As always, this is just an estimate. The weighted average prediction could fluctuate up or down depending on any number of the following factors:

+ The feel-good holiday buzz where consumers spend less conservatively than at other points in the year.
+ Rashad Evans certainly gained more awareness as the result of his stint on TUF, but it would have had even more of an effect on the PPV had he fought Rampage.
– The “cursed” nature of the card may have led some to avoid the purchase altogether – considering what it was meant to be versus what it actually became.
– The event didn’t feature a title fight.
– Disclosed fight bonuses have been a proxy for the UFC’s expectations of what an event will do, and it might be telling that these bonuses are lower than normal ($50,000 compared to $65,000 or $70,000 in previous events like 107 and 106 respectively).

Business Story Lines

– Rampage-Rashad likely for May:

Dana White will tell you that he’s unbiased – and he probably is – but when Silva had Rashad hurt in the dying minutes of the third round on Saturday, there was surely a part of White that felt as though he was watching money evaporate before his very eyes. Then the Greg Jackson product dug deep and returned to his wrestling roots to stave off the onslaught and preserve the victory.

Rashad’s victory is very important for the UFC because it now sets up the Rampage-Rashad that many fans thought they were getting in December. Moreover, the winner of that bout has a credible claim to a title shot against the winner of Machida-Shogun II, which will also take place in May.

The UFC has planned two events in May: Machida-Shogun II in Montreal on May 1st and the Memorial Day Weekend card (that will coincide with the UFC Expo) in Las Vegas. You could make a strong case for Rampage-Rashad as a solid co-main event on either of these cards. The May 1st card would give fans a look at a contender bout followed by a title bout in the same weight class. However, Rampage-Rashad would draw a lot of attention for Memorial Day / UFC Expo card.

– Daley earns a shot at stiffer competition:

Daley’s power is very impressive, as is his ability to absorb one. He’s probably got the heaviest hands at 170 lbs, but the UFC will look to test his ground game before they even think of giving him a shot at GSP. Daley hasn’t looked good against great wrestlers in the past – Nick Thompson comes to mind – and thus he’ll be tested to improve his take down defense.

Regardless of whom he faces, Fitch or Koscheck, a legitimate contender will be created. My own guess is that it will be Koscheck because he’s a more marketable personality than Fitch and is the last fighter to win a round over GSP.

– Bayonetta the mystery sponsor of UFC 108:

Anyone wondering about the mystery sponsor for UFC 108 (pictured on the poster below Evans vs. Silva) wasn’t alone – the logo is more or less illegible. Moreover, it didn’t help that throughout the broadcast the vague references made by Goldberg weren’t enough to really tell what the thing was (the UFC is provided with this material, so it’s not really their problem).

A quick google search reveals that it’s a video game.

– UFC signs Takanori Gomi:

The UFC has signed the Fireball Kid, and he will now look to regain his former top two lightweight form in North America. ESPN Live’s Jon Anik broke the news yesterday that Kenny Florian is a likely first opponent. It’s a fight that makes a lot of sense for the UFC, because if Florian wins he’s got two solid victories in the wake of his 4th round defeat to Penn last year and it would justify a title shot that could possibly take place in Boston next summer. If Gomi wins, he’s come into the UFC and essentially knocked off the 2nd best lightweight in the division, and he would be close to a shot as well.

– UFC 108 Exceeds Expectations

UFC 108 provided another example of how important a role expectations play in the perception of quality. A card of this entertainment value would have been considered a good card regardless of event hype, but the fact that it had been called “the cursed card” by many led to some pretty low expectations. The action way over-delivered in this one, and it was probably the best set of fights since UFC 102 last August.