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The Payout Pick: Khabib or Justin?

October 23, 2020 by Jason Cruz Leave a Comment

UFC 254 takes place mid-day in the U.S. on Saturday and its a big one with Khabib Nurmogomedov taking on Justin Gaethje.

It’s evident that Khabib will do what he does, take his opponent down and ground and pound. Khabib’s control is dominant and with every opponent he has faced, he’s used his top-of-the-food-chain wrestling to break the spirit of all of his opponents.

He faces Justin Gaethje who presents an interesting matchup for him. Gaethje has the knockout power to end Khabib’s night. We saw in the Tony Ferguson fight that he has the patience to calculate attacks. This is in stark contrast to his PFL days and early UFC appearances where he would take damage to give damage.

But the big question is whether Gaethje can deal with the incessant wrestling of Khabib. As explained by my colleague, Paul Gift, Gaethje isn’t held down much and when he is taken down, he usually gets back up. That will be the true test of this fight. Can Khabib impose his will once again on another opponent?

Certainly, if Gaethje is able to withstand the ground game, he has ample firepower on his feet. While Khabib is a decent striker, Gaethje excels in this and is durable so if Khabib can’t keep him down, we are looking at a long night with the challenger having a shot at an upset.

Still, its hard to fathom someone being able to withstand the onslaught of Khabib’s takedown game. While Gaethje is a quality wrestler, we know Khabib is on another level. Look for Khabib to take this in the third round via submission.

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