Welcome to another edition of Payout Perspective. This time we take a look at UFC 190 taking place at the HSBC Arena in Rio de Janeiro.
Rousey ends Corriea in 34 seconds
Ronda Rousey showed her dominance once again by knocking out Bethe Corriea in just 34 seconds. It was not the most technical of fights, but Rousey showed power in her hands by flattening Corriea. While many are calling for Cyborg, it looks to be the trilogy with Miesha Tate this December.
Shogun-Little ‘Nog
It was billed as a rematch of one of the best fights in Pride that occurred 10 years ago. The 10 years took a lot out of each as the first round had a lot of action and slowed considerably over the next two rounds. Many fans thought that a failed guillotine attempt would have won the fight for Little ‘Nog but Rua pulled out the unanimous decision once again. Both will continue to fight but I am not sure if that is the best idea for each.
Attendance
Although announced as a sellout, UFC 190 at the HSBC Arena drew 14,723. As seems to be a constant with Brazilian cards, a gate was not announced.
Prior PPV events at HSBC Arena
UFC 142 – 10,605 (Aldo v. Mendes)
UFC 153 – 16,844 (A. Silva v. Bonnar)
UFC 163 – 13,873 (Aldo v. Korean Zombie)
Bonuses
Demian Maia, Shogun Rua, Antonio Rogierio Nogueria and Ronda Rousey. Maia and Rouse yearend Performances of the Night while Rua and Little Nog earned Fight of the Night. Each earned $50,000
Promotion of the Fight
The UFC Countdown show offered a little more than usual as Ronda Rousey talked about her father after Bethe Corriea’s comments regarding Ronda committing suicide when she beat her.
Rousey also gave an insightful interview during an Embedded feature.
There had to be some concern about the promotion of this fight since it would be in Brazil. Rousey still did Jim Rome and some other U.S. outlets but not as many as if she were here in the states. Yet, it appears to have done well.
Sponsorships
The Octagon sponsors included Budweiser, Fram, Sports Authority, Reebok, the movie, “Straight Outta Compton,” Tai-Chi Panda, Brazilian outlet Combate and TNT Energy Drink (like most Brazilian events) had the center of the Octgaon.
Tai-Chi Panda is a video game. A commercial and its web site featured Ronda Rousey. The UFC women’s bantamweight champion also wore a Monster Energy logo on her Reebok kit. Rousey also had a new MetroPCS commercial which featured her mother and the horsewomen.
“Straight Outta Compton” had the fighter prep point and the trailer was shown prior to the Rousey fight.
Odds and ends
Placing the TUF Brazil Finals on the main card was not the best idea. A lot of discontent from fans and people tuned out. People seemed mad that the Ronda fight did not start until past 10pm PT.
The TUF Brazil contestants wore generic UFC shorts except for a panel which included sponsor TNT Energy Drink. One might assume that this was a deal brokered by TNT and/or TNT paid for the spot on the shorts.
The UFC Fan Voting was shown after each fight as it is another way that the UFC can engage fans during the PPVs.
A lot of tweets from mainstream stars in support of Rousey displayed throughout the night and on Dana White’s twitter feed.
The WWE sent a thank you to Ronda Rousey after she dedicated her fight to Roddy Piper.
Congratulations to @UFC Bantamweight Champ @RondaRousey on her successful title defense. #UFC190 #RIPRoddyPiper http://t.co/56vs0MZ9Cx
— WWE Universe (@WWEUniverse) August 2, 2015
Corriea had a good gimmick with stating that she wanted to beat all of the Four Horsewomen including Ronda. But, we all know that Rousey is so much better than her other stablemates. The award for the worst tweet of the night goes to Showtime’s Stephen Espinoza for continuing a trend of leaders of an organization badmouthing another promotion’s event.
Great matchmaking, UFC. Four main event fights, two minutes total. Can’t wait to buy the next one.
— Stephen Espinoza (@StephenEspinoza) August 2, 2015
The award for best tweet of the night goes to the WWE’s Seth Rollins for responding to a tweet from Dana White who was badmouthing (or perceived to be) another promotion’s product.
Guys, cut @danawhite some slack. I mean he’s had a million matches, so his opinion is super valid and should be taken as gospel.
— Seth Rollins (@WWERollins) August 2, 2015
The tweet from Rollins is in response to White telling a twitter follower that WWE is fake. Rousey had 6 million google searches over the weekend. YouTube highlights also did well:
Revised Google search total for Rousey on Saturday is 6M, so gigantic and unprecedented for MMA but not unbelievably epic.
— Adam Swift (@AdamMSwift) August 3, 2015
As far as extrapolating PPV business, 1M of the searches were “Ronda Rousey fight” which looks a lot like pirates trolling for the fight.
— Adam Swift (@AdamMSwift) August 3, 2015
@AdamMSwift Every Ronda story we pubbed had two extra 0s vs avg. Our YT highlights (w/o finish footage!) has 5M views http://t.co/D3pZM52g5t
— Carleton Curtis (@carletoncurtis) August 3, 2015
Conclusion
UFC 190 will tell us whether Ronda Rousey can carry a PPV. Rousey has not done as much media as she would have if the fight was in the U.S. But, it still received a ton of searches over the course of the weekend. It was the number one trending topic overall in the U.S. during the PPV. Certainly, the casual fan was searching the internet for the 34 second clip of Rousey winning. This may be a problem when it comes to future Rousey PPVs as fans might just wait to see the fight on Vine…or ESPN.
Notwithstanding the future ways of purchasing (or not purchasing) a Rousey PPV, Saturday’s event will be telling as to whether UFC 184 was just one good night. Corriea was not a strong opponent for Rousey despite the trash talk. The question is whether that even matters. It didn’t seem to matter for Conor McGregor at UFC 189.
Dana White indicated that UFC 190 was trending better than UFC 189. It’s hard to say what numbers he might be looking at although one might think pre-buys for the PPV might be one. Couple that with the perceived correlation that google searches equate to PPV success and UFC 190 might be a PPV hit. I was originally thinking that this PPV would do 400K-500K PPV buys. However, it appears that it may well have exceeded this. Anything above 700K would be outstanding considering there was virtually nothing else supporting Rousey’s fight.
d says
Espinoza’s really brilliant and great at fact checking. UFC 190 had 7 main card fights and there was only 1 quick finish on the main card. This is also coming from a retard that put on arguably the worst ppv of all time in terms of action.
Seems like this ppv did well past expectations. Leon’s gettin’ nervous. Haha.
Diego says
I liked the fight card. Espinoza is a moron.
A few thoughts:
I love Big Nog but he needs to retire.
I love Little Nog but he need to retire.
I love Shogun but he needs to retire.
Struve is no world beater and he handed Big Nog his ass. Shogun and Little Nog were competitive against each other, and I hope they don’t think that makes them competitive in the division. Shogun especially has taken unbelievable punishment in his last few fights.
What’s the highest PPV number a Brazil card has ever done? I think this could be the new record. I don’t like Rousey, but she’s compelling in a Floyd Mayweather, can’t look away sort of way.
Jason Cruz says
@Diego – I believe UFC 153 with Anderson Silva filling in late to fight Stephen Bonnar drew 410K PPV buys.
d says
http://variety.com/2015/film/news/ronda-rousey-biopic-autobiography-my-fight-your-fight-1201553460/
Paramount making a movie about Rousey.
saldathief says
The UFC is shameless and fucking pathetic. They announce a sell out for 190 and they also announced a sellout for 153. Both gates are different !! Meanwhile the building holds 14981 with fixed seats and another 4 to 5 k on the floor so both are far from sellouts! Nice try fuck boys!
tops E says
Dw is desperate….hahahaha…open zuffas books….the real ppv buys….all hype
Fight Fan says
Still waiting for 189 buys to be released…
d says
Fag Fan, Meltzer gave another estimated update- 950k buys.
How’s your Buffalo Wild Wings doing?
tops E says
Dw is now saying 190 is bigger than 189 hahahaha….desperate….and projecting rousey vs cyborg at 2.5 ppv hahahahaha….open the books judge, i remember richard schafer daring dw he would spend for the auditing that ufc 100…to prove ufc was hyping it….dw not only refused but quieted down the dare(not himself) …and confirmed the ppv thru the jumping bet so he cant be liable if his lying
d says
I remember Richard Schaeffer daring everyone to open their books- Arum, White, etc. Yet he never once opened his books- notably on his bullshit lies about Mayweather- Guerrero. Haha. He’s as full of shit as Arum is. I’d love to see those books opened, just like I would love to see any boxing ppv’s books opened. The conclusion would be that these sociopaths lie about all of their numbers, and unfortunately no one fact checks them anymore, unlike Meltzer does with the UFC.
Is Schaeffer enjoying his vacation off the face of the Earth?
tops E says
Dw is appeasing reebok….fighters unhappy,duran fired,mcgregor did not want to wear the kit,dw twitter tirade reebok issue……now he’s saying two back to back 1m ppv and 2.5on cyborg fight…reebok should ask for stats from ppv providers….hahahaha
tops E says
http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2015/8/3/9092041/wanderlei-silva-other-fighters-push-for-muhammad-ali-act-/ in-mma. Gooood news for fighters bad news for dw
The Greatest says
“d on August 3rd, 2015 7:21 AM
Espinoza’s really brilliant and great at fact checking. UFC 190 had 7 main card fights and there was only 1 quick finish on the main card. This is also coming from a retard that put on arguably the worst ppv of all time in terms of action.
Seems like this ppv did well past expectations. Leon’s gettin’ nervous. Haha.”
Yea the same retard who put together the most hyped fight in combat sports history.
The same retard who put together the highest selling ppv of all time.
The same retard who put together the highest grossing ppv of all time.
Yea some retard right
d says
Hahaha. Yeah, like he had anything to do with selling that fight. Before Mayweather even signed a contract with Showtime and Espinoza was even a thought in his brain, everyone was talking about Mayweather-Pacquaio shattering every record in ppv. He’s a pr guy who is a fraud that doesn’t know shit about anything that is now trolling on twitter like Dana White. Yeah, he is a retard.
saldathief says
D Dana and the rest of the girls know the truth is coming soon! bahahahahah Stay tuned to be shocked by the facade the UFC is and all the lies they have been not only telling the fans but the fighters and managers. STAY TUNED! D to be working back at 7 eleven
d says
Sal, how did the date go? Did you also bring your boyfriend Dirty Bob Arum?
d says
Wow. According to Dave Meltzer and Jeremy Botter, UFC 190 did huge numbers. Meltzer is claiming he doesn’t have the cable buys yet, but the satellite buys are off the charts and they are expecting a massive number.
Jeremy Botter who writes for Bleacher Report is claiming the ppv did over 1m buys and said specifically this was not coming from the UFC.
If Aldo-McGregor goes down in December, this will be the biggest year for ppv revenue in the history of the company.
LEON WHERE YOU AT BIATCH?????????
d says
Looks like our bet may be over in August Leon, faster than even I predicted. If Jeremy Botter is correct(who claimed it was a fact that 190 did over 1m buys), then our bet is over and you are officially the Schmo! Of course we have to wait for Meltzer to release the number, but it is looking like this is a done deal and you have to eat crow for being the royal idiot that you were.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!
d says
That goes for you too Fagbusiness.
LeonThePro says
We’ll see Delusional; I’ll honor the bet.
But if the UFC ever gets audited in court for bogus #s – or is found paying Meltzer to stack these numbers in their favor, like they (admittedly) pay for media coverage with USA today… I will haunt you with a vengeance.
d says
Dana White doesn’t get along very well with Meltzer because he calls him out on his bullshit. If it were White’s numbers, they would be much larger.
This is a huge year for the UFC ppv wise.
LeonThePro says
Yes but the UFC has also hired Dave Meltzer to present “estimated” PPV #s in New York court systems, to help them establish a case for themselves.
Love or hate, past or present, Dave is/was on UFC payroll. Doesn’t change our bet, but don’t pull that bullshit with me.
d says
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!! Dude you are seriously pathetic. Stop making excuses. In no, way, shape or form is Meltzer on White’s payroll and his numbers are not coming from the UFC. How do we know this? Probably because his numbers are always lower than the numbers that White and co. leak. White told Iole that UFC 100 did something well over 2m buys, then Meltzer’s number was final at 1.6m. Look at all the shit they throw out there. Also, google Meltzer’s prediction for Aldo-McGregor a while back- his estimation was 750k tops. If he was on the payroll, don’t you think he’d be repeating what White was saying which is that they were going to do well over 1m. Plus, even if he was exaggerating in some way, which he clearly isn’t, this year is easily going to go over 5m, and looking like it is going to hit 7m easily with Aldo-McGregor.
Also, I don’t remember ever hearing about Meltzer testifying in NY. He testified for Eddie Alvarez in his case against Bellator which is completely different.
Just admit you were wrong and disappear when the final numbers come in.
Matt Malloy says
Please. Come on people. Meltzer isn’t on the UFC payroll. That’s absurd. This website (and it’s replies to posts) already have enough garbage on them with the ‘boxing v UFC’ stuff. Let’s not pollute it anymore with bs like that.
And as a gentle reminder to everyone. There are never any official numbers released for ppv buys. Let me repeat that. There are NO OFFICIAL released numbers put out. It does not happen. To many people on this board continue to view these reports as gospel, and that is just wrong.
Dave Meltzer (and everyone else), simply put out estimates of what they think is an approximate buy total. With Meltzer, he is doing a lot of tea leave reading. Viewing indirect measurements coupled with a small scattering of some other reports. Then extrapolating that into a total number. His process is not very accurate. Remember, he is a reporter. His goal is to get readers. Making up PPV number buys is one of his niches to get attention for himself. Take it with a grain of salt.
d says
Matt, you are very wrong about that. His final numbers are not broad estimations. His WWE numbers that he had been reporting for years turned out to be very accurate when WWE released their numbers publicly. Based on that alone, he should be given a ton of credibility when it comes to ppv numbers. If you want to say as of right now in relation to UFC 189 and 190, they are still rough estimates, then you are probably right, but whenever he brings it down to his final numbers, they are probably accurate within a margin of error around 10k.
Diego says
I believe Meltzer uses inside sources to anchor his estimates. So they are probably better than estimates made using secondary predictors (google searches, prelim ratings, etc). I’m willing to bet they are the most accurate estimates publicly available based on the few times we’ve seen actual numbers published.
Matt Malloy says
‘d’
How can you say his final numbers are …
“probably accurate within a margin of error around 10k.”
…when there is no actual official document ever released?
BrainSmasher says
You are wrong. The UFC has released numbers a rare few times and they lined up with Daves predictions. If you think this industry just blindly follows this guy for no reason. The. You have issues. People are not as dumb as you think. Dave has gained people’s trust over many years. He has sources that makes his estimates more credible than anyone else who has no sources.
Invade you didn’t know. The UFC opened their books during their battle with Couture. It was easy to know PPV sales when we knew the checks wrote to Couture and we know Coutures contract and how his PPV cut was structured.
d says
Matt, I’m basing it off of the accuracy of his WWE numbers which when published were that accurate.
Matt Malloy says
Let me get this straight:
i came on here and very politely made the comment that there are no ‘official’ released documents with PPV buys, and now i even have someone on this board jumping on…and telling me i have ‘issues’? By a person named ‘Brain Smasher’? Jesus christ, what’s wrong with some of you? Better yet, maybe you (Brain Smasher) should get off the computer and go get some fresh air. Like go take a walk, seeing how you are letting a message board topic get you this upset.
I’m going to make this simple for some of you. Post it. Put up a link to any officially released document that will show that the UFC did “xxx # of ppv buys”.
As a reminder.
– Just because Meltzer was ‘close’ with some prior WWE estimates he did, that doesn’t mean there was an official release by a business. It could mean that Meltzer just had a contact in the WWE.
– Just because Meltzer had a contact in the WWE, it doesn’t mean he has one in the UFC. He could just be trying to get readers in a new market, MMA.
– Regarding Randy Couture’s court battle with the UFC. I’ll be blunt. No, it’s not ‘easy’ to know actual details of the 2007 court dispute they had. Randy Couture claimed one thing initially in early October about two fights earlier in the year (Gonzaga and Sylvia) The UFC then claimed something else a few weeks later, when they produced a couple checks showing his pay structure. During that press release, the UFC also mentioned what they ppv buys were during the Sylvia fight (540,000) and then said what the projected total was for Gonzaga (787,000). From there, people did the math.
Here’s the deal. The above was a eight month long fiasco, involving a ONE time matter where the UFC did disclose information. From this ONE time event, can we actually say Dave Meltzer is now getting actual documents that show a final number on each and every PPV? No. We can’t.
Best i can tell (and remember back then), Meltzer never made any formal predictions about where UFC 68 would turn up in PPV buys. If he ever did accurately state the number, that matched what the UFC said seven months later, for all we know someone tipped him off months later, about a ONE time event. Looking back to that time period, under dozens of links showing Meltzer’s name, there is no prediction matching 540,000 buys. In fact, the only prediction i found looking around was this…
“Randy Couture could earn upwards of $2 million for the match “if everything goes well on pay-per-view;”
Oops. And according the UFC months later, Randy’s pay was $1.186 million.Oops. Dave was off by a whopping $1 million dollars on his prediction. That’s not exactly being accurate.
It’s easy to call yourself an expert predictor of anything, when no one actually double checks how your predictions turn up later. All those NFL Vegas 1-800 telemarketers thrive off of this. Remember the winners, forget the losers. That’s how the game works. And it’s especially easy to call yourself an expert, when no one ever actually can check up the results. Imagine how successful those Vegas 1-800 telemarketers could be, if no one ever found out what the results were from Sunday, and they weren’t disclosed. Those Vegas guys….. would be like Dave Meltzer.
Matt Malloy says
…one more thing.
I never said Dave wasn’t a credible reporter, wasn’t close on his predictions or lied about anything. My ONLY point made before was that there are NOT any ever any official numbers released for ppv buys. Like a formal document a business has to file with a state commission, showing an actual number. Like how we have with gate receipts. Seeing how there is no report, Dave then has to either 1), get an inside source to give him a total that won’t be formally known until months down the road, or 2) do some tea-leave reading estimating.
Option #1 leaves Dave wide open to manipulating promotion barking, using Dave as a tool to hype an event or play it down, depending on the climate. Option #2, simply is never going to be accurate.
And as far as Dave Meltzer being more credible than anyone else, that’s a non point. Its like saying one is the tallest guy in a room full of midgets. There simply aren’t that many people out there who predict UFC buys on full time reporting basis. “if’ Dave is the most accurate predictor out there, it’s only because he’s mostly the only UFC reporter doing predicting of ppv.
d says
Matt,
You what you are saying about Meltzer/WWE is not accurate.
The WWE DOES in fact release ppv numbers publicly. They are the only company I know of to do so. So this wasn’t just someone like a spokesperson randomly saying they did a number- they give a full release of the numbers. They started doing this when they went public.
“– Just because Meltzer had a contact in the WWE, it doesn’t mean he has one in the UFC. He could just be trying to get readers in a new market, MMA.”
Meltzer doesn’t get his numbers from WWE insiders, he gets them from ppv contacts.
Your analysis is way off based on these points alone.
d says
One more thing to point out on Meltzer’s prediction about Couture’s pay. That was a prediction, not an after the fight, hard figure. He was obviously assuming a bigger ppv buy number plus he may have also been factoring in the signing bonus money as well. Not the same thing as his ppv after the fact, numbers.
d says
Also, Couture earned around 1.85m for that fight, not 1.1 and that isn’t including the signing bonus. His base pay was 250k plus the ppv bonuses of around 1.1m and then 500k in other undisclosed bonuses after the fight according to Randy. If you factor in the signing bonus, then he is right at around 2m. So it sounds like Dave was dead on.
Matt Malloy says
‘d’
I’m not sure why you are arguing with me?
1. My point on the WWE is that it’s not the UFC. Different organizations. That’s great that the WWE does release stuff, but we aren’t discussing the WWE. The topic was the UFC. Right? So be that is may, there’s no point in you correcting on accuracy about the WWE does. I don’t really care. It’s irrelevant.
2. I never specified where Meltzer gets his sources from, so no need to correct me on something I didn’t say. If you look above, I mentioned he does it via estimates and possible ‘inside source’. Whether it’s from the UFC or PPV commercial contacts, a source is a source. There’s no need to ‘correct me’
3. And for the 4th time, my ORIGINAL point, I said there are no official PPV documents that are mandated to be released to any state regulatory bodies, like how gate receipts are done. If I am wrong on this, (and maybe I am?), any of you can post those links right now and show me.
4. Regarding Randy.
I’m not sure why are you are quoting anything Randy said. He got caught lying, when the Fertitta’s disclosed checks he actually cashed. And for the record, the courts ultimately decided in favor of Zuffa anyways. Randy never had a case. He made an ass out of himself, with his actions. (I like Randy, it pains me to say it, but that’s reality)
Regarding your pay example above. You are conflating things. In Randy’s fight with Tim Sylvia, he earned the following. A per fight base pay of $250,000 and a PPV bonus of $936,000. He earned $1.86 million. As I stated. This is fact. To quote MMA weekly,
“Not including his $500,000 signing bonus, the UFC indicated that Couture’s pay for the Sylvia fight totaled $1.186 million and $1.072 million for the Gonzaga fight, some of which is indicative of the pay-per-view estimates and a $35,000 “Fight of the Night” bonus for the latter bout.”
The other $500k you are referring to often gets confused. Randy was originally given a $500,000 signing bonus to rejoin the UFC, paid in two installments of $250k. He was also paid a ’employment contract’ of $250k, as well as a $56k commentary contract. Neither of those had to do with actual ‘per fight’ pay. Randy often confused people with this, by calling the signing bonus an ‘off the book’ payment.
This is all old news. Randy first presented his account in early October of 2007. Zuffa (Fertitta’s) then did a conference a few weeks later and corrected most of all Randy’s distortions and half truths.
Matt Malloy says
I have a typo up there. I left out a “1” while rushing to type Randy’s payout with Sylvia. It should read like this
——————
In Randy’s fight with Tim Sylvia, he earned the following. A per fight base pay of $250,000 and a PPV bonus of $936,000. He earned $1.186 million. As I stated. This is fact. To quote MMA weekly,
Diego says
Matt,
You bring up some good points, but I believe that Meltzer’s sources are with the PPV suppliers themselves and not the WWE or the UFC . I could be wrong about that, but that’s the sense I get. That doesn’t mean his numbers are 100% accurate, but likely makes them hard to manipulate by the promotions and more accurate than tea-leaf reading.
Matt Malloy says
Diego
In regards to the WWE, you all can hash that one out. I don’t follow the pro wrasslin stuff, so don’t have a clue to what goes on with it. Especially in regards to ppv buys. You are saying Meltzer gets his ppv info from the suppliers for the WWE. A few posts up, someone else said the WWE gives the info out via company reports (they are public). Again, i have no clue on that.
The UFC is a private company though. They are under no obligation to reveal anything. Even for governmental or state filings to athletic commission. The only time they seem to release info, is if it serves some company PR purpose to promote the company. When times are good, they tend to sing loudly.
As far Meltzer having sources in the PPV industry. Why not. I’m sure he does. Now that said…..keep two things in mind.
1. The PPV providers do not release this information publicly. So anything Meltzer gets, is mostly likely something being passed around behind the scenes in a somewhat illegal fashion. I’m fairly certain Dru A. Sedwick, president of Armstrong Cable Services would not be happy with a key employee dumping out financial information to a reporter. Same could be said for other companies. Which brings up the second point….
2. Do people realize how many cable providers there are, that offer PPV? You have three big ones in Satellite. And with cable, there must close to 80 to 90 PPV service providers in just the US alone. Do you or anyone on this board want to try and convince me Meltzer has sources INSIDE every one of those 90 companies? Come on. Please. Don’t insult my intelligence. Meltzer isn’t getting tips from all 100 of those companies, and then adding them up. Especially when the information comes in unevenly, even over months.
At most, he might have 3 to 5 sources who sometimes tip him off to a broad number, and then from there, just does some tea-leave reading, extrapolating and guesstimating, plus working off of what Dana White barks about….to come up with a ballpark number. A ballpark number which, can never be back checked by anyone. A number which in and by itself, because the standard ‘ppv buy’ rate, upon which most fans accept as real.
d says
Matt, there is some confusion, let me clarify. WWE releases their ppv buy rates in their quarterlies. This comes AFTER Meltzer makes his figure estimates and they line up with what the WWE reports shortly there after. He gets his information from his contacts within the cable companies who distribute the ppvs. Notably, advertising agencies that analyze the numbers who have some sort of audit rights I am assuming based on what I’ve read in the past. This proves he is not just some wild shot in the dark estimator, his numbers are very accurate. He knows what the event promotions do. Your points become really irrelevant after understanding what I just pointed out.
Matt Malloy says
“d”
I enjoy reading most all of what you say on here, so please don’t take this the wrong way. But nothing you said there, ‘proves’ anything, Come on, all you just did there was make some broad based comment. What does it prove? In fact, what you said doesn’t even make a lot of sense on the surface of things.
– “Advertising companies’ don’t analyze numbers from cable companies. If anyone at all is analyzing the reports of these companies, it’s going to be financial analysts who work on wall street, who work in that particular segment of the market. But these analysts are not obsessing or even really caring at all what one particular UFC does on a ppv event. Wouldn’t matter to them. They are looking at broad based trends in the company and industry. And one event, would mostly be insignificant when analyzing a cable provider.
– Regarding the WWE. The quarterly reports you refer to are a government reporting form for public companies called a ’10Q’ . Anyone can pull these reports (at least the basic report) for free right off even Yahoo. I can look right now and see that the WWE’s revenues from PPV fell 85% from the 6/30 quarter of ’15 from ’14. Primarily due to the timing of Wrestlemania, in terms of the date. PPV income for the 6/30 quarter was $3.5 million.
– If you wish to ‘prove’ something to me, simply show me anywhere on a cable provider’s 10Q where it reveals anything at all in relation to ONE UFC’s ppv performance. I’ve looked. Best i can tell, i have seen nothing.
– That all being said, that would mean Meltzer is getting his info from sources inside the cable companies themselves. As i mentioned before, there are a lot of companies out there. Do you really think he has sources inside every one of them? Of course he doesn’t. He has a few, and is then extrapolating based on limited information. Is this correct? No. He is guesstimating.
Matt Malloy says
one other thing. You said
“Your points become really irrelevant”
My point all along was that Meltzer’s ppv number he releases is an estimate. A broad based guesstimate that typically is just a range (e.g.; …UFC 189 did 850k to 900k), and typically even that guesstimate range could be off by anywhere from 10% to 40%, with perhaps the range somewhat shrinking over time. It is not an actual real number, and even Meltzer, if pressed, will tell you that.
So my main earlier “point” is spot on correct. When you will realize that? Who knows.
d says
What I said about the advertising agencies, was a report that I read a while back, even though it does make sense, because they may want to know who is buying these things, that wasn’t something I was using to verify my information- the hard numbers were that his estimations reflected.
Something you are dismissing though is that Meltzer made estimations BEFORE those quarterlies were reported that lined up with his numbers. He would have to be one hell of a Nostradamus to be that accurate that frequently. Those aren’t shot in the dark guesses, they are very low margin of error figures.
You continue to get fixated on where UFC numbers are publicly to validate Meltzer’s ppv credibility. Well, if he has the WWE numbers before they are released, I think it’s safe to say he isn’t some fraud and he has direct knowledge of ppv numbers. Are you saying he knows WWE, but is just guessing UFC? That really wouldn’t make a ton of sense.
He gives the range early on, he gives 4 sets of numbers. The last of which is a final figure and it isn’t a range, it isn’t 100% accurate with no margin of error, because even the event promoters don’t know those figures because the ppv totals can take literally over a year to calculate those figures and it would be hard to give that type of figure if they are still being totaled. Also, give me one example where he was off by 40%. I’ve never seen him change a number that drastically. Maybe 15% at most.
Your earlier point isn’t spot on. It is actually very false. If you were spot on, Dave Meltzer would be playing the lottery every night because he knows the future based on how accurate his WWE numbers were. You just simply dismiss those figures.
d says
“So, what’s the best way to track all of this information which is being published in pieces at various times throughout the entire year and covering often disparate time-frames and events? A weekly newsletter isn’t a bad start. So, that’s why I’m using Dave Meltzer’s number – particularly for 2006-2013 period. I’ve also double-checked these against SEC Filings and KPI releases and generally, they’re the same numbers. If anything the differences come down to how you apply a domestic/worldwide PPV split and how you attribute prior period buys.”
http://indeedwrestling.blogspot.com/2013/12/wwe-2006-2013-ppv-numbers-and-lengthy.html
Matt Malloy says
To answer your question, here’s why I dismiss the WWE comparison. The WWE and UFC are completely different things. One is a public company with openly disclosed filings as well as analysts who report and follow its doings. The UFC is a private company that has very little verifiable data, most of it only coming indirectly through Moody’s reports on its various offerings of Debt. The two couldn’t be any different in terms of financial disclosure. One is easy to ballpark and create ppv numbers, the other is difficult. Just because he can do one, doesn’t mean it’s automatic he can do the other.
Second point.How can you even verify that Meltzer is 5% or 50% off? Well? There is never a final ppv number to backcheck his number? Well?
That’s what you don’t get.
So if you want to prove me ‘wrong’, show me some Meltzer UFC estimates post event…..AND then show me some SEC, 10q, forms, literally ANYTHING that would later verify that he is accurate.
I’m not asking much there. Just show me.
Matt Malloy says
Regarding your link. Thank you, interesting read. But as I said right above, all that shows is that Meltzer has a system in place that allows him to quickly digest all the tons of openly verfifiable data about the WWE….and then quickly get out an estimated PPV number that can later be shown to be pretty accurate. Or at least accurate enough to use as a reference.
What he uses for the WWE (which is listed in your article), would not be available when trying the same thing on the UFC.
mmaguru says
Matt,
As a publicly traded company, the WWE is obligated to release financial information, which would include PPV buys, gate revenues etc. Zuffa is a private company, as such are not required to release PPV information and have not done so accept for one occasion of which you have mentioned regarding the lawsuit with Randy.
Personally, I would take any buy rate posted for the UFC from any source, whether Dana, Metlzer or google, with a grain of salt. Simple example is with the blue book on this site, which suggests the following: “08/25/2007 UFC 74 Couture v. Gonzaga 520,000”. From reports about the lawsuit, the following is what was known “UFC documents also project buys for the Gonzaga fight, at UFC 74, at 485,000”
That might not seem like a huge difference, but percentage wise that is a bout a 7% gap.
d says
MMAGURU, if you think a 7% margin of error (which is unsubstantiated anyway because you didn’t post a link and I don’t recall any of that being presented), is something very significant, you should investigate how accurate the words of Arum, Ellerbe, Schaeffer, Mayweather, etc. That is a pretty good range- plus more importantly, we can’t verify when the blue book number was posted.
d says
“Second point.How can you even verify that Meltzer is 5% or 50% off? Well? There is never a final ppv number to backcheck his number? Well?”
We’ve seen the WWE numbers posted in the quarterlies. That is how we know. You are claiming he is getting different sourcing for the WWE than he is the UFC which makes zero sense. He isn’t reporting those numbers AFTER they release them, he is following up shortly after the events occur and then are substantiated later on. You can keep your position, but it really isn’t logical that he would have cable contacts for one event promotion and not another that he is reporting on. He isn’t saying this is a shot in the dark, he is saying these are pretty close estimates and if we look at his numbers which were substantiated by the WWE, it is hard to say he is some Sylvia Browne.
His estimates are very close. The evidence is there.
Matt Malloy says
You keep telling me there ‘evidence is there’….
…..So when are you going to show me? Well? I’ve asked three times for it. Give me a few examples of….
1. Meltzer stating a ppv buy number
2. An official document producedater, of some type, that can verify Meltzer’s claim as being accurate.
Matt Malloy says
Mma guru
What you told me, IS the point I have been repeatedly saying.
Sorry for the typos up there, I am on my phone.
…and D, I am not ‘claiming’ anything in relation to how Dave Meltzer makes up his guesstimates. I said early on I don’t know. I can only offer opinions to how he does it (to which I did), but I am not a mind reader.
What I do know is this. YOU cannot keep claiming what you do. That because Meltzer has made accurate guesses with PUBLIC information with the WWE, that his guesses with the UFC’s private info are right.
Diego says
“Do you or anyone on this board want to try and convince me Meltzer has sources INSIDE every one of those 90 companies? Come on. Please. Don’t insult my intelligence.”
Read my post again. I openly admit that Meltzer is making an estimate. If he had a source in every PPV provider it wouldn’t be an estimate. I think – though again, I don’t know for sure – that he has a few contacts in some of the major provides and he probably extrapolates the whole market from there. I will close with the same conclusion as my previous post which retains it’s validity: “That doesn’t mean his numbers are 100% accurate, but likely makes them hard to manipulate by the promotions and more accurate than tea-leaf reading.”
Diego says
And I don’t think anyone on this site takes his numbers as fact. Just as the best estimates we can get our hands on, and estimates that likely have the same inherent errors so we can at least use them to compare performance over time.
d says
Matt,
The numbers Meltzer was estimating for the WWE events as being accurate prior to the quarterly releases has been corroborated by a number of sources- pretty much anyone who analyzes this online. I don’t have a subscription to the Observer, but based on the credible writers I’ve read analyze it, I would find it very difficult to believe this is some collusive movement to lie about this. This is a guy who also wrote a certification for a document confirming Eddie Alvarez’s potential ppv numbers and gave ppv figures for what fighters have done in the past in a notarized court document. It would pretty surprising for him to lie about things like this. He would be pretty stupid to lie about something like that in a federal court document.
Matt Malloy says
D
1. Again, why bring up the WWE? This site is called “MMAPayout”. It’s about MMA. And predominately, the UFC. This is not a pro wrasslin site. You can’t compare procedures with what is done in the WWE, with MMA, especially the UFC. Apples and oranges. The WWE is a public company that quite often discloses actual information and numbers. The UFC is a private company.
2. Please stop putting words in my mouth. I never once in this thread or any other said Meltzer is a liar. Meltzer is a writer. He has a product to sell. And he found a niche (ppv estimates) that enables to him get more readers, and money. No where there, in what I described, did I say he was lying.
3. I’ll ask you again for an easy way for you or anyone else out there to prove what you are saying is real
– Provide for me a link to where Meltzer stated a ppv buy number estimate after a show (this is easy to do, I can even do this)
– Provide an official document of sort (link, attachments, etc..) that would show Meltzer’s system as being verifiable.
..and to Diego, perhaps no one is taking his numbers as fact, but people just blindly assume that whatever he says, is very accurate. I see it all the time on here. People just assume. And again, from what I have seen, it’s not like Meltzer is confirming HOW he came up with a number or substantiating anything as verifiable. If nothing is verifiable, then nothing can really be compared over time either.
And yes, I agree with you. That doesn’t mean his numbers are 100% accurate. But at what point do we agree that it’s not worth worrying about and posting articles over? If he’s 90% guessing right? 80% right? 70% right? At some point, it becomes an exercise in stupidity to have long debated talks back and forth, arguing over whether a PPV event does 500k, 450k or 400k. We just don’t know. It could actually be 347k a year from now, when everything is added up.
mmaguru says
Interesting discussion between Meltzer and Ariel on MMA Hour. He is stating that 190 may do better than 189 which he claims did around 800 K buys. But he did talk a little about the difficulty of estimating PPVs now. I didn’t watch the whole interview, but he said there is a +-20% with the estimates.
Matt Malloy says
Well, that right there destroys any argument by people on here that his estimates are ‘very accurate’. +/- 20% is a fairly large margin of error. It means an estimate of 900k ppv buys could be anwhere from 720k to 1,180k,
d says
Matt, you should take your own advice, you just accepted the words of an idiot who just lied to you.
What was said in the interview is as follows(referring to UFC 190):
Helwani: “Do you think it does over a million?”
Meltzer: “It’s too early to say that but I’m thinking..900k maybe…maybe it does a little less, maybe it does a little more……………….I think 900k is a nice safe estimate and like I said, that could be off by 20% in either direction.”
The reason why he is saying that could be off by 20% in either direction is because these are very early estimates. His final numbers are not 20% margin of errors.
He also went on to say the numbers he is getting are only US/Canada and do not include internet streams and obviously buys internationally. He said his numbers before were more accurate ONLY because of those non traditional buys becoming more common like the internet streams, etc. So to be clear- he was pointing out that the numbers he is estimating are LESS than the actual numbers because of this factor. Plus he said the numbers he was getting for 189 were a little over 800k. If anything, what he said reiterates my points.
What’s amusing is how adamant you are that Meltzer’s numbers are random guesses, but when a boxing paid troll comes on here and drastically exaggerates what was said in an interview, you accept it without even challenging those claims. Funny stuff.
The rest of your points I addressed earlier. If you want the answer to those questions- go pay for the subscription to the Observer. I don’t feel like digging for all that- way too time consuming. You believe what you want. What I find most amusing though is you were pretty quick to accept the Mayweather-Pacquaio numbers and that info was coming from corrupt promoters.
Matt Malloy says
D
For the fourth time, quit making up shit. I never said Meltzer is doing ‘random guesses’. Seriously, i can see why all the boxing guys think you are fucking idiot. You can’t even make it one reply back to me, without making something up I never said.
And what is more amusing is how adamant you are in attaching your lips to Metlzer’s ballsack, on what is a mostly educated guess/ballparked PPV numbers.
And what’s even more amusing, is how i have ALSO repeatedly asked you to just provide just ONE link or attachment, that could verify anything Meltzer says, that would indicated some +/- to 5% or whatever degree of accuracy you claim. Even above, you essentially just dicktucked and ran away, claiming you are to busy to go find this proof you claim is all out there. Seriously? You are on this board ALL the time. Take 1/4 of that time you spend, and just go post up some of this proof.
d says
Matt you are a moron. Pretty clear you can’t accept the reality that has set in which proves you are completely full of shit.
Your direct quote:
“Dave Meltzer (and everyone else), simply put out estimates of what they think is an approximate buy total. With Meltzer, he is doing a lot of tea leave reading. Viewing indirect measurements coupled with a small scattering of some other reports. Then extrapolating that into a total number. His process is not very accurate. Remember, he is a reporter. His goal is to get readers. Making up PPV number buys is one of his niches to get attention for himself. Take it with a grain of salt.”
You are straight up saying these are inaccurate estimations that should be taken with a grain of salt. If that doesn’t clarify your position, I don’t know what does. Your problem is you are contradicting yourself left and right when you noticeably get emotional about this topic, you tend to exaggerate your position more I guess. Probably because you realize you are a fucking homo who is blowing a boxing promoter as we speak for their figures which you take with 100% certainty.
I don’t have a membership to the Observer, where all his posts are made. I’ve looked this shit up before- not easy to find and I don’t feel like paying for a pro wrestling subscription that includes UFC ppv numbers once a month. Nice try faggot.
d says
Also, something else you were dead wrong about above:
“Randy Couture could earn upwards of $2 million for the match “if everything goes well on pay-per-view;”
-Meltzer
“Oops. And according the UFC months later, Randy’s pay was $1.186 million.Oops. Dave was off by a whopping $1 million dollars on his prediction. That’s not exactly being accurate.”
No, he wasn’t wrong, he was right. You later acknowledged that he made 1.86m and that was with the ppv numbers not yet finalized. Also, the 500k he referred to was NOT a signing bonus. You don’t receive signing bonuses after a fight. You sign them up front. With the signing bonus, that would have pushed him around 2m.
“During the news conference, Couture repeatedly said the UFC would give its higher-profile fighters “off the books” bonuses after fights. He would not say during the nationally televised live news conference how much those were for, but afterward, he said he received $500,000 for the win over Sylvia.”
-Iole
Here is what White said:
“Randy Couture said he didn’t receive a signing bonus, but not only did he receive a signing bonus, he cashed the check on Jan. 30. I’m holding it in my hand right now. The check was dated Jan. 15 and he cashed it on Jan. 30.”
http://sports.yahoo.com/mma/news?slug=ki-102507couture
UFC 68 was held on March 3rd. Kind of difficult to cash a check in January that you are given in March of the same year, right?
I’m not guesstimating when I say this- you are an idiot.
mmaguru says
@d,
Please do not misquote me. I simply said, “He is stating that 190 may do better than 189 which he claims did around 800 K buys”. UFC 189 did around 800K buys according to Meltzer. In the interview, he is talking about UFC 190 doing around 900K buys.
I’m not sure why you are so defensive on these numbers, to the point where you can’t see straight. UFC is doing good business, relax and enjoy. This is always good news for us MMA fans. Don’t let the boxing guys get you tied up in a knot.
Matt Malloy, you are 100% correct. +-20% is a big delta, so the numbers are going to be as accurate as they will ever be, but we should only take them at face value and all estimates should be qualified with this in mind.
UFC 194 will be a big event, may be the first UFC PPV in a while to eclipse the 1 million buy rate mark.
d says
I did not misquote you at all. I pointed out the fact that you are clearly exaggerating and misleading in your statements. I posted the direct quotes and comments from the interview- you lied.
“Matt Malloy, you are 100% correct. +-20% is a big delta, so the numbers are going to be as accurate as they will ever be, but we should only take them at face value and all estimates should be qualified with this in mind.”
You see- you did it again. This was his margin of error for the opening estimations for UFC 190(a week after the event), NOT 189. His margin of error(if you asked him) for his final numbers would be way less margin of error. So to be clear, you are misleading and basically lying about what Meltzer said.
Stop exaggerating.
mmaguru says
@d,
I did not lie, everything I said is factual. Whether you agree or not, really does not matter. While you are at it with your diatribe, tell us please how on the UFC website they claim ufc 189 did 1 million buys under Connors profile yet Meltzer is now claiming it did approximately 800K? The answer is you can’t. You simply type rubbish as does some of the others on this forum with an agenda in mind. Move on or stay, but please at least be productive in your posts.
d says
You absolutely did, nothing you said was factual- I just proved what you said to be a lie. You can continue to lie- but I transcribed what the man said and you exaggerated all of it. Now what you are doing is accusing me of claiming UFC 189 did 1m buys- something I never said, not even close. My point was discussing the authenticity of Dave Meltzer’s numbers who gave the 800k+ figure.
Let’s take this one step at a time- you just got done saying that the margin of error for Meltzer’s numbers according to him were 20% because of what he said in the interview and you were clearly implying those were his final numbers. The truth of that interview is Meltzer makes it very clear when he said repeatedly(not to mention his history of adjusting the numbers, along with everything else he said in the interview backing up my argument) that the reason for such a high margin of error at 20% was because it was too early to tell. His final numbers would be far less of a range. Now, you can continue to lie and either clearly state or imply that his numbers are possibly off by 20% when all is said and done, but that is not true.
You also said Meltzer has more trouble now with getting accurate numbers, of course you failed to state that was because of the alternative means of buying the ppvs, ie- streaming online, etc. By listening to what he said, he is clearly stating that he doesn’t count those and the numbers overall are higher, but he doesn’t get those figures.
So again, if you are going to analyze an interview someone gave, in the future, don’t lie and exaggerate just so it falls into your bullshit argument. I’m assuming you didn’t think anyone would fact check you on it, but I did and posted his quotes. Anyone can watch what the man said right on mmafighting.com which contradict your statements.
Matt Malloy says
D
When you start seeing multiple people on a website start giving you shit about misquoting people, perhaps it’s time for you to look in a mirror. Or maybe get outside. You are taking this Dave Meltzer stuff to seriously.
Regarding Meltzer’s own comments, that he has a margin of error of +/- 20%. The timing of it doesn’t matter. The reason being is that Meltzer’s initial estimates (that have the high margin of error)…ARE THE ESTIMATES USED BY PEOPLE LIKE YOU and others when arguing on message boards. People like you (and all the boxing retards) are typically on websites like this the week after an event, arguing how a supposed ppv number now proves or disproves something.
And for now the 8th time, it doesn’t matter is Meltzer can narrow the above number down months later to +/- 12% or +/- 9.5654%. Why? Because there is NO WAY TO VERIFY HIS LATER NUMBER IS ACCURATE. Unlike the WWE, which will later post actual numbers via 10q reports, the UFC private company status makes any later verification of Meltzer’s claims impossible.
And just because he has a system to verify WWE numbers, doesn’t mean that same system will work on the UFC, a private company. You keep falling back on this point, and don’t even get it. It’s why people think you are some MMA knucklehead retard. Instead now, instead of just boxing fans thinking it, you now have mma fans doing the same too.
One last point. Don’t even try writing something down, where you call someone out about ‘fact checking’. I’ve asked you multiple times to provide me ‘proof’ of Meltzer’s numbers, where how you claimed he is “very accurate” (that is your actual quote) Many times I have asked. You won’t back it up. In fact, you cried like some bitch that you are to busy, and don’t have the time. Practice what you preach.
Matt Malloy says
mmaguru said,
“mmaguru on August 11th, 2015 5:41 PM
@d,
I did not lie, everything I said is factual. Whether you agree or not, really does not matter. While you are at it with your diatribe, tell us please how on the UFC website they claim ufc 189 did 1 million buys under Connors profile yet Meltzer is now claiming it did approximately 800K? The answer is you can’t. You simply type rubbish as does some of the others on this forum with an agenda in mind. Move on or stay, but please at least be productive in your posts”
Well said. Bingo.
Matt Malloy says
D
When you start seeing multiple people on a website start giving you shit about misquoting people, perhaps it’s time for you to look in a mirror. Or maybe get outside. You are taking this Dave Meltzer stuff to seriously.
Regarding Meltzer’s own comments, that he has a margin of error of +/- 20%. The timing of it doesn’t matter. The reason being is that Meltzer’s initial estimates (that have the high margin of error)…ARE THE ESTIMATES USED BY PEOPLE LIKE YOU and others when arguing on message boards. People like you (and all the boxing retards) are typically on websites like this the week after an event, arguing how a supposed ppv number now proves or disproves something.
And for now the 8th time, it doesn’t matter is Meltzer can narrow the above number down months later to +/- 12% or +/- 9.5654%. Why? Because there is NO WAY TO VERIFY HIS LATER NUMBER IS ACCURATE. Unlike the WWE, which will later post actual numbers via 10q reports, the UFC private company status makes any later verification of Meltzer’s claims impossible.
And just because he has a system to verify WWE numbers, doesn’t mean that same system will work on the UFC, a private company. You keep falling back on this point, and don’t even get it. It’s why people think you are some MMA knucklehead retard. Instead now, instead of just boxing fans thinking it, you now have mma fans doing the same too.
One last point. Don’t even try writing something down, where you call someone out about ‘fact checking’. I’ve asked you multiple times to provide me ‘proof’ of Meltzer’s numbers, where how you claimed he is “very accurate” (that is your actual quote) Many times I have asked. You won’t back it up. In fact, you cried like some bitch that you are to busy, and don’t have the time. Practice what you preach
mmaguru says
@d
Keep blabbing. You won’t have the last word on this. I did not lie or misquote or analyze, as I was not referencing what he said as a quote. Metlzer said his number is off by 20%+- at this point of his estimation. Maybe he will get it down, maybe he won’t. Live with it and move on.
d says
“Well said. Bingo.”
You just proved my point. You are an idiot. What he said was NOT factual. He lied. You accepted it without challenging anything he said, without fact checking it, all the while calling me out on an allegation of not fact checking.
The timing is EVERYTHING idiot. He’s saying the most of the numbers didn’t come in yet. This isn’t a situation where the numbers were mostly just based on satellite figures or pre buys. Wow.
“And just because he has a system to verify WWE numbers, doesn’t mean that same system will work on the UFC, a private company. You keep falling back on this point, and don’t even get it. It’s why people think you are some MMA knucklehead retard. Instead now, instead of just boxing fans thinking it, you now have mma fans doing the same too.”
HAHAHA!! Yeah, he has an entirely different policy all of a sudden because its UFC and not WWE. Again, he makes predictions ahead of time. He doesn’t release the quarterlies for the WWE. Man you are a stupid fucking idiot.
Also, I noticed you ditched your pathetic effort to disparage Meltzer’s Couture pay numbers. Good job on that where I fact checked you and you were full of shit once again, and ….wait for it….MELTZER WAS RIGHT!!!!!!!
You are a total moron.
d says
Mmaguru,
You blatantly exaggerated and took Meltzer’s numbers completely out of context. Go back and read what you initially wrote. Your entire implication was that he had a 20% margin of error as a total. His numbers will definitely go down AS THEY ALWAYS DO! He gives 4 sets of numbers. These were the openers. The last being the final one which has a very low margin of error, no where near 20%.
You are an idiot who was caught lying blatantly. You also said he isn’t as accurate before without noting that was specifically because he only includes N. American non streamed numbers. So, in other words, the figures he has always been releasing have not become more difficult to be accurate in. It is just new forms of buys he doesn’t account for.
Just acknowledge that you exaggerated and lied and move on.
Matt Malloy says
How is anyone lying? You put up the quote later, trying to correct mmaguru. And what you put up, made it pretty clear.
Meltzer: “It’s too early to say that but I’m thinking..900k maybe…maybe it does a little less, maybe it does a little more……………….I think 900k is a nice safe estimate and like I said, that could be off by 20% in either direction.”
Meltzer clearly said that his estimate could be off by 20% in either direction.
Matt Malloy says
D
You said
“HAHAHA!! Yeah, he has an entirely different policy all of a sudden because its UFC and not WWE. Again, he makes predictions ahead of time. He doesn’t release the quarterlies for the WWE. Man you are a stupid fucking idiot.”
Actually, he would mostly likely have a different ‘policy’ (not sure why you used that work, the correct word is procedure). Any prediction based formula…. drawn from a few contacts in the industry, tweaked with few indirect measures (google, views, prelim shows), then extrapolated out with some other tweaks, …would have to be different. The tools and formula to extrapolate would be different, as the WWE is not the UFC.
And with the WWE, Meltzer would then be able to go back and fine-tune his above system procedures and formulas, run them through some math, to see what variables would be most affecting the prediction….because he would have at his disposal, the actual real number later. These actual real numbers, from publically disclosed sources like 10q reports, would be invaluable in helping with predictions. THAT is what helps you fine tune the formulas used.
With the UFC? The second step is always going to be missing. You can never quite fine tune your predicting formula, if you almost never actually know what the real answer ended up being.
That’s how this works. Maybe they’ll teach you this at the McDonald’s you work at.
d says
“How is anyone lying? You put up the quote later, trying to correct mmaguru. And what you put up, made it pretty clear.
Meltzer: “It’s too early to say that but I’m thinking..900k maybe…maybe it does a little less, maybe it does a little more……………….I think 900k is a nice safe estimate and like I said, that could be off by 20% in either direction.”
Meltzer clearly said that his estimate could be off by 20% in either direction.”
Can you read retard?
He also went on to say this:
“Interesting discussion between Meltzer and Ariel on MMA Hour. He is stating that 190 may do better than 189 which he claims did around 800 K buys. But he did talk a little about the difficulty of estimating PPVs now. I didn’t watch the whole interview, but he said there is a +-20% with the estimates.”
This is not true. He is clearly implying that Meltzer’s numbers aren’t accurate anymore and are at a 20% margin of error overall. This is a lie. He is clearly cherry picking what he said. The only reason for the 20% margin of error was because of the fact that it was right after the fight and was too soon to lower the number because that was based on satellite and pre fight cable buys. He also made it very clear- it wasn’t difficult to estimate the N. American ppv buys at all which are the numbers he’s been releasing for years. He made it clear as day- the only reason why he was saying he wasn’t as accurate as before was because the alternatives like streaming online were not accounted by his sources. So his numbers are BELOW what the actual numbers are because of these new sources. But the conventional buys are still just as easy to hammer down.
Why do you idiots continue to dodge my point here which demolishes your argument? There is no 20% margin of error for his final numbers- you are lying about what he is saying.
Na, the policy(I love it when people correct me who are too stupid to even know the definition, nor any synonyms of the word they are correcting me on means) wouldn’t be any different, same cable contacts. He has his numbers right, just like his numbers were correct about Couture’s contract that you were dead fucking wrong about and refuse to admit you were wrong on. Keep dodging that point moron.
His final numbers for UFC ppv buys and WWE ppv buys do not come in months 2-3 months later where the quarterlies are released for the WWE. Obviously the UFC numbers aren’t released quarterly, but the WWE’s are.
I actually run a business, I make more money than you would ever dream of making at your local restaurant washing dishes.
Here are a few links you should investigate:
http://www.merriam-webster.com/thesaurus/policy
http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/policy?s=t
http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/moron?s=t
d says
“How is anyone lying? You put up the quote later, trying to correct mmaguru. And what you put up, made it pretty clear.
Meltzer: “It’s too early to say that but I’m thinking..900k maybe…maybe it does a little less, maybe it does a little more……………….I think 900k is a nice safe estimate and like I said, that could be off by 20% in either direction.”
Meltzer clearly said that his estimate could be off by 20% in either direction.”
Can you read retard?
He also went on to say this:
“Interesting discussion between Meltzer and Ariel on MMA Hour. He is stating that 190 may do better than 189 which he claims did around 800 K buys. But he did talk a little about the difficulty of estimating PPVs now. I didn’t watch the whole interview, but he said there is a +-20% with the estimates.”
This is not true. He is clearly implying that Meltzer’s numbers aren’t accurate anymore and are at a 20% margin of error overall. This is a lie. He is clearly cherry picking what he said. The only reason for the 20% margin of error was because of the fact that it was right after the fight and was too soon to lower the number because that was based on satellite and pre fight cable buys. He also made it very clear- it wasn’t difficult to estimate the N. American ppv buys at all which are the numbers he’s been releasing for years. He made it clear as day- the only reason why he was saying he wasn’t as accurate as before was because the alternatives like streaming online were not accounted by his sources. So his numbers are BELOW what the actual numbers are because of these new sources. But the conventional buys are still just as easy to hammer down.
Why do you idiots continue to dodge my point here which demolishes your argument? There is no 20% margin of error for his final numbers- you are lying about what he is saying.
Na, the policy(I love it when people correct me who are too stupid to even know the definition, nor any synonyms of the word they are correcting me on means) wouldn’t be any different, same cable contacts. He has his numbers right, just like his numbers were correct about Couture’s contract that you were dead fucking wrong about and refuse to admit you were wrong on. Keep dodging that point moron.
His final numbers for UFC ppv buys and WWE ppv buys do not come in months 2-3 months later where the quarterlies are released for the WWE. Obviously the UFC numbers aren’t released quarterly, but the WWE’s are.
I actually run a business, I make more money than you would ever dream of making at your local restaurant washing dishes.
d says
Policy
noun
Synonyms and Antonyms of POLICY
1 a way of acting or proceeding
Synonyms line, methodology, policy, PROCEDURE, program
-merriam-webster.com/thesaurus
policy
3.action or PROCEDURE conforming to or considered with reference to prudence or expediency:
moron
1. Informal. a person who is notably stupid or lacking in good judgment:
-dictionary.reference.com
A photo of Matt Malloy was given next to the latter definition.
Matt Malloy says
I can see why everyone makes fun of you on here.
d says
I can see why even Sal one ups you on here.