UFC 117: Payout Perspective
August 9, 2010
Welcome to another edition of Payout Perspective! This week we’ll be taking a look at UFC 117: Silva vs. Sonnen, which was held Saturday, August 7 from the Oracle Arena in Oakland, California. The stacked event not only featured Silva vs. Sonnen, but Fitch vs. Alves, dos Santos vs. Nelson, and Hughes vs. Almeida.
Silva pulls off triangle in final minutes, defeats Sonnen
Anderson Silva was dominated by Chael Sonnen for much of their 23 minute fight on Saturday, but it was ultimately the last 2 minutes that proved most pivotal as Silva slipped on the triangle and then pulled down on an arm to secure a quick tap.
I try not to indulge in senseless hyperbole, so I’ll just call it an unbelievable comeback. Silva proved his mettle in this fight: getting beat on for four rounds and still having both the capacity and presence of mind to look for the late submission. I’m not sure he won himself a ton of new fans – if anything, probably now more people than ever believe he’s vulnerable – but he did earn back some respect after previous performances.
There’s a debate raging as to whether Sonnen should receive an instant rematch. I’ve heard good arguments on both sides. The pro-rematch crowd argues that an instant rematch needs to happen as soon as possible, because it’s just too good of a business opportunity to risk by delaying. Silva hasn’t been a tremendous draw for the UFC (he averages just 455,000 PPV buys), but a rematch with Sonnen would sell huge. If the UFC decides to book something else, it could lose the appeal and relevance of an immediate rematch. However, the counter argument to a Silva-Sonnen instant rematch is also strong: Silva won without the reffing or judging controversy that usually demands an instant rematch; plus, the UFC likely does not want to set a precedent for handing out instant rematches every time a contender loses a close fight.
My own opinion is that the UFC cannot afford to pass up an immediate Silva-Sonnen rematch for the following reasons:
- Ultimately this business is about putting on fights that people want to see – this is one of them.
- The fight would not require a substantial co-main attraction, which frees up assets for Joe Silva to use to reinforce other cards.
- The winner is surely to emerge with at least a short-term popularity spike that carries forward into other bouts.
- The UFC middleweight division could actually use an extra six months to sort itself out: let Vitor fight the winner of Marquardt vs. Palhares or Bisping vs. Akiyama.
Fitch victorious, but no guarantee of next title shot
Jon Fitch was once again victorious in the Octagon, racking up his fifth win in a row, but the fight also marked the 8th time in a row that he’s gone to a decision. Dana White had commented before the fight that the winner of Fitch vs. Alves would receive a shot at the winner of St-Pierre vs. Koscheck, but all bets were off when Alves came in over weight and even more so when Fitch failed to finish against Alves.
Fitch was good, but not so good that the UFC can’t deny him an immediate shot in favor of someone like Jake Shields. It’s hard to fathom that Joe Silva and the UFC would book St-Pierre in back-to-back title bout rematches with guys he’s already trounced unless they had no other real alternative. The winner of Shields-Kampman could provide that alternative.
dos Santos defeats Nelson, earns shot at winner of Lesnar-Velasquez
Junior dos Santos demonstrated his superb stand-up in the victory over Nelson. It’s difficult to envision another heavyweight being able to match dos Santos on his feet. The fact that he did not knock Nelson out is more a testament to Nelson’s chin and heart than it is to dos Santos’ power. Dos Santos will now face the winner of Lesnar-Velasquez some time in the New Year.
The UFC has done a great job of organizing its heavyweight division and producing never-before-seen depth from the big men. If Lesnar gets through Velasquez and dos Santos, he’ll truly be the top heavyweight in the world. Hopefully that’s something the organization can replicate in the lightweight and middleweight divisions – both of which are kind of in disarray at the moment.
UFC revamps website
MMAPayout.com covered the unveiling of the UFC’s re-designed website last week. After playing around with things for a few days it’s become clear that there are still a few kinks to be worked out functionally. It remains, however, a less cluttered environment than before – one which provides a lot more substance.
Sponsorship Watch
The UFC and Edge Shave Gel ran a contest a few months ago in which the bar code from purchased Edge containers could be used to obtain a free three-month subscription to the UFC Vault. It was good activation for Edge, but something that probably wasn’t advertised as much as it could have been. I’ve been happy to learn over the last month that the Vault subscription is more valuable than access to a select number of fights relevant to the up-coming card; subscribers also have access to recent prelim fights in the days immediately following a UFC event.
The Tequila Cazadores spirit award went to Clay Guida. The UFC is slowly starting to do more with this award, but I really think it’s missing something on the PR end by not getting the story out a little better. It’s got good cause marketing potential; and, with Clay Guida as the most recent recipient, this last one definitely could have had some legs.
I found it interesting that Tequila Cazadores – the presenting sponsor of UFC 117 – had graphics posted during each between-round replay, yet the odd post-fight replay was still brought to us by Bud Light. I wonder if this was a mistake or if Bud Light owns the post-fight replay (finishing sequence) no matter the card.
The Blue Book has been updated.
The PPV Gap: Title vs. Non-Title
July 15, 2010
MMAPayout.com has updated its latest numbers on PPV trends, and there remains a significant gap of just over 200,000 buys between PPVs with title events and those without.
I’m not sure this comes as a surprise to anyone; it’s pretty intuitive and it’s something we’ve commented on numerous times before. However, you may be interested to know that the gap has closed slightly. Again these are rough estimates that we’ve tabulated through the help of Dave Meltzer and various cable company sources.
UFC 57-UFC 100
Title events: 596,000
Non-title events: 347,000
Difference: 249,000
UFC 57-UFC 115
Title events: 603,000
Non-title events: 395,000
Difference: 208,000
Payout Perspective:
I’ve got a few thoughts regarding the above numbers:
1.) I think these numbers stress the importance of asset management for the UFC and Joe Silva. There’s always going to be a temptation to load up fight cards, but it’s always prudent to be conservative. I also tend to think this provides an opportunity for Joe to do what he did with UFC 116: make some great match-ups, showcase some of the younger, less-heralded fighters in the company, and wow the audience.
2.) I suspect the gap decreased, because of the series of events that unfolded last summer. The UFC had a tremendous first two quarters and built a great deal of momentum which it then used with some of the leaner cards in the Fall to draw a better result than it maybe should have. In January and February we saw a return to a more realistic series of results in the consecutive absence of title belts on the line.
3.) I expect this gap to widen once again. If you include the expected buyrate from UFC 116 (1.0-1.2 million) the title event average goes up immediately. Then consider the next few months: UFC 117 has a title fight (Silva vs. Sonnen) and a great main card; UFC 118 has a title fight (Edgar vs. Penn) plus Couture vs. Toney and is the UFC’s debut in one of the nation’s biggest media hubs; UFC 119 does not have a title, but should still fare decently with Mir-Nog II; and, then UFC 121 will feature Brock defending his title again.
4.) In my estimation, we’re probably headed for a gap of 300,000 buys in the next year: a 700k average for title fights and 400k for non-title bouts.
UFC 115 PPV Prediction: 460,000
June 22, 2010
MMAPayout.com uses statistical regression analysis to match both the viewership numbers from Spike TV’s Countdown to UFC and the live gate figures reported by athletic commissions against the PPV buyrate numbers for each UFC event. The analysis produces a linear equation, which can then be used to take new Countdown or gate information and predict a PPV outcome.
The Data
We’ll be using both the Countdown to UFC and live gate figures from UFC 115 in this week’s regression analysis, but it’s worth noting that the nature of the UFC’s debut in Vancouver has made the live gate a less reliable indicator than normal (it’s generally the more volatile of the two):
Countdown to UFC 115: 453,000
Live gate: $4.2 million
The Prediction
The prediction process starts with the data set below; each symbol represents the PPV figure (vertical axis) and Countdown to UFC figure (horizontal axis) for an event in the last four years.
Then the numbers are plugged into a regression analysis formula to derive a linear line through the data set, which allows us to pick a certain Countdown figure (on the horizontal axis) and find the corresponding PPV prediction value (on the vertical axis):
When we plug in 453,000 viewers into the linear equation – represented by the red line above – we’re given a value of 371,000 PPV buys. The same process is performed with the live gate data and results in an estimate of 739,000. Then we plug the two figures into an equal weighted average (50% each, for now) to get our preliminary estimate:
- Countdown to UFC 115 prediction: 371,000
- UFC 115 live gate prediction: 739,000
- Equal weighted average prediction: 555,000
The Argument for 555,000:
- TUF 11: the Ultimate Fighter has always proven to be an effective marketing tool for PPV events and there’s no reason to believe this season (that experienced a slight up-tick in ratings compared to previous non-Kimbo seasons) was any less effective.
- Chuck Liddell: he’s the most popular fighter in UFC history and will always draw some interest. Coming off a full season of TUF promotion, the UFC likely managed to evoke a degree of nostalgia in its fans.
- PPV momentum: the UFC typically sells in cycles, and its currently running a streak of four shows in a row that have sold 500k or more. The many fans that tuned in for UFC 114 might have been persuaded to give Chuck Liddell one more chance.
- Media exposure: the UFC is at an all-time high where media exposure is concerned. ESPN is now dedicating one hour per week to the sport and the UFC is likely still benefiting from all the press it’s been getting from the release of its video game (even if the sales figures have failed to meet analyst expectations).
The Argument Against 555,000:
- Normally, a gate of $4.2 million would indicate serious North American interest in a fight card, but this is a special case where the live gate is more a reflection of, or testament to, the strength of the Vancouver (Canadian) market than anything else. The gate being so high probably skewed the weighted average prediction higher than what it should be.
- Chuck Liddell: part of Chuck’s appeal was his ability to back up his menacing look with downright scary punching power, but without the ability to knock people out, the entire package has become less appealing to the fans.
- PPV momentum: the upswing in UFC PPV buys has to stop or slow at some point, and UFC 115 is the most likely event for such a slow down to occur. Just look at the events from UFC 111 clear to UFC 118 – it’s easy to identify the weak link in the chain.
- The NBA Finals: the casual market was likely still tied up in an NBA Finals that turned into a barn burner of a series that went seven games.
- UFC 115 a non-title fight: it’s a fact that non-title fights far under-perform title fights (the average being 370k to ~600k).
Conclusion: 555,000 likely a little too high
The event will probably generate a buy rate above the 400,000 mark, because the UFC likely benefited from some of its momentum and some great media exposure in May. However, the argument against 555,000 is pretty strong and it would seem a long shot that this fight does that well (note: although Dave Meltzer is reporting trending estimates at 520k).
If we adjust the weighted average to reflect a more accurate allotment (something like 75-25 in favor of the Countdown show, which is typically what we do when one of the variables is skewed), we arrive at a final prediction of 460,000 buys.
UFC 114 Buyrate Prediction: 700,000
June 2, 2010
MMAPayout.com uses statistical regression analysis to match both the viewership numbers from Spike TV’s Countdown to UFC and the live gate figures reported by athletic commissions against the PPV buyrate numbers for each UFC event. The analysis produces a linear equation, which can then be used to take new Countdown or gate information and predict a PPV outcome.
The Data
We’ll only be using UFC 114′s live gate figure in our regression analysis, because the Countdown show was cut down to just 30 minutes on account of the 90 minutes used over three consecutive weeks to air UFC Primetime: Rashad vs. Rampage.
Dana White reported that gate figure to be approximately $3.895 million.
The Prediction: 700,000
The prediction process starts with the data set below; each symbol represents the PPV figure (vertical axis) and live gate figure (horizontal axis) for an event in the last five years.
Then the numbers are plugged into a regression analysis formula to derive a linear line through the data set, which allows us to pick a certain live gate value (on the horizontal axis) and find the corresponding PPV prediction value (on the vertical axis):
When we plug in $3.985 million into the linear equation – represented by the red line above – and we’re given a value of 690,000 PPV buys.
The Argument for 700,000:
The live gate for this event was quite strong: it’s the second highest gate total this year and the third highest gate total in the last 12 months for the UFC. Impressive – especially considering it was a non-title bout. Usually that’s a pretty strong indicator for interest in a fight.
UFC 114 also benefited from a host of promotion and fight week hype:
- The event is the beneficiary of two months worth of solid UFC events (111, 112, WEC 48, and 113) that all sold well and managed to keep the UFC relevant in the minds of both the casual and hardcore MMA fans.
- TUF 11 started at the end of March and has utilized Chuck Liddell and Tito Ortiz to push further interest in the UFC brand.
- Video game maker THQ released the much anticipated second edition of UFC Undisputed four days prior to the fight (May 25th) and nearly every gaming site in the world had a review of one of last year’s biggest hits.
- UFC Primetime: Rashad vs. Rampage debuted to the largest audience out of any of the three series and averaged 1.05 million viewers (compared to 789,000 and 706,000 for GSP vs. Hardy).
- ESPN did its part to promote the fight with a month’s worth of MMA Live broadcasts on ESPN2, in addition to several interviews on syndicated shows like the BS Report (even Sportscenter covered the event).
- The UFC also went on a full PR offensive during fight week: Dana White shuttled around the country as per usual and the UFC announced the formation of their UFC Canada office in Toronto.
I think we all had our own observations and experiences that we can compare against other fights to justify the number. Suffice it to say that, for me, I’ve never had more non-MMA fans ask me about Rashad vs. Rampage; nor have I seen more people packed in my local Eugene watering hole than I did on May 29th. That doesn’t mean the bout is going to sell 1 million, but I do think it’s got a chance to top 700k and even push the 800k barrier.
Additionally, I should mention that MMAPayout.com friend Greg Sakks of Tapology.com has been tweaking a rather consistent and accurate internet buzz prediction model of his own that is calling for just over 700,000 PPV buys. Make sure to check that out as well.
The Argument Against 700,000:
The flip side to the 700k argument is this was a non-title fight and historically those have fared far worse on PPV than title fights (I haven’t updated my numbers in a while but it’s likely somewhere around 350k vs. 600k from non-title to title).
I also look at the competitive landscape and wonder how many casual fans might have just been content to check ESPN at 11PM in order to watch the Lakers or Blackhawks that night. The interest may have been substantial, but perhaps not enough to motivate casuals to choose the UFC over other sports alternatives.
Typically, one of the reasons the UFC is so successful in the summer months is because of that lack of sports competition (the MLB is the only major league that plays solidly through June, July, and August). Thus, once we move beyond Memorial Day Weekend – usually rife with all sorts of entertainment options – it’s a much less cluttered promotional environment.
UFC 114: Payout Perspective
May 31, 2010
Welcome to another edition of Payout Perspective! This week we’ll be taking a look at UFC 114: Rampage vs. Evans, which was held at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, Nevada on May 29th, 2010. The event featured a light heavyweight contender bout between Rampage Jackson and Rashad Evans and coincided with the second ever UFC Expo.
Rashad prevails and earns title shot
It’s very difficult for grudge fights to ever live up to their hype. Rampage vs. Evans didn’t exactly deliver the KO fireworks that some fans might have expected, but the bout was thoroughly entertaining and had most on the edge of their seats. The bout was an exhibition of first-class MMA between two fighters with wildly different styles and game plans. It was just about anyone’s best guess as to whom would come out on top — would Rashad get the takedown and dictate the fight with his speed or would Rampage catch him with a hook?
The fight was well-hyped and received a great deal of interest from the media and casual fans. I suspect this will be enough for the UFC to make Rua vs. Evans in September or October of this year.
Rampage defeated, but more popular than ever
Rampage may have come out on the losing end of the fight on Saturday, but he definitely won the popularity contest. This is very interesting to me, because Rampage had a difficult time catching on with the UFC crowd as champion – he wasn’t as popular as he maybe should have or could have been. Now, however, it would appear as though his popularity is at an all-time high and that’s important for the UFC moving forward.
If Brock Lesnar is set to fight in July, Silva and Edgar in August, and GSP in December, only the light heavyweight title is guaranteed to be available from September through to December. I think you could make a case for the winner of the Lesnar-Carwin fight to turn around and defend in November, but that still means the UFC is going to need one or two solid non-title main events to headline cards in this period. The popularity of Rampage makes him an obvious choice (should he be healthy and willing) and I tend to think that a Rampage vs. Forrest rematch makes a lot of sense here because it’s relevant and it’ll draw well.
Just to finish that thought: if Chuck Liddell is successful in his comeback in two weeks, he’d be another capable headliner the UFC could fit into that September-December gap (possibly against a healthy Tito).
ESPN2 extends agreement with MMA Live through August
The news of an extension is certainly welcome, but I think this was pretty easy to predict: the UFC has a monster summer coming up – Lesnar at 116, Couture vs. Toney at 118 – and ESPN definitely wants a piece of that to really gauge how far this “MMA thing” can go.
Note: MMA Live on ESPN2 averaged something around 130,000 viewers in May, which is higher than what the network normally draws in that time slot.
UFC 114 gate and PPV success
Dana White announced at the post-fight press conference that the event did $3.895 million at the gate on the strength of 15,081 fans, which is the strongest Las Vegas gate the company has had since UFC 100 (and the second strongest gate, period, since UFC 100). Moreover, the event benefited from an incredible level of hype that likely pushed the PPV broadcast into the 700-800k mark, which would make it the best-selling non-title event ever.
Just to recap, here’s some of what the UFC used to promote the fight:
- UFC Primetime
- MMA Live on ESPN2
- The launch of UFC Undisputed 2010 on May 25th (note the crucial timing – fight week)
- The UFC Expo (which you might attribute to the sell out and rather strong gate).
Prospect watch
It was an interesting night for our prospect watch segment:
Todd Duffee, the former NCAA Division 1 middle linebacker and owner of the UFC’s fastest knockout (7s), was dominating his fight against Mike Russow before getting buckled with a right hand and then smashing his head on the canvas. I don’t think this changes anything in terms of Duffee’s career trajectory – he still figures to be a top heavyweight in 2-3 years from now – but it probably will delay his development as a contender. He’s got to work on his gas tank, but I’m also inclined to believe he needs time to become more comfortable with the cameras and the spotlight.
John Hathaway, on the other hand, looked outstanding against Diego Sanchez. His striking was crisp, footwork was good, and he showed great poise against a veteran like Sanchez. For all the noise about Bisping, Hardy, and Daley, this Hathaway kid could prove to be the best of the bunch (along with, perhaps, Ross Pearson).
Cyrill Diabate is not a prospect, but deserves mention for a great performance as well. He was the guy, if you remember, that Dan Henderson brought in to mimic Anderson Silva before their fight at UFC 82. Joe Rogan commented on his improved ground game and if that holds true, he could be a legitimate contender at 205.
Sponsorship watch
It was a pretty interesting night on the fighter sponsorship side as Reebok, Bud Light, and Boost Mobile jumped into the fray. Dong Hyun Kim’s shorts and banner featured a Reebok Zigtech ad, which might surprise some people considering Reebok hasn’t announced any entrance into MMA within North America. However, Kim is extremely popular in Korea and has become a great asset for the UFC in the country – the Reebok sponsorship, as with the rest of his sponsors, were geared towards the Korean viewership of UFC 114. Bud Light sponsored both Efrain Escudero and Rashad Evans, which continues the company’s growing activation around the UFC sponsorship (although I’m still not convinced it’s where it needs to be). Rampage Jackson, was sponsored by Boost Mobile, which caught my eye because the UFC has really been devoid of cell phone sponsors since Amp Mobile filed for bankruptcy.
There were also a couple of things I noted from a property perspective:
- UFC 114 presented by UFC Undisputed 2010, but the spike card was sponsored by another video game — Split/Second.
- BSN sponsored an interesting segment at the end of the night — the BSN Finish First “Finish of the Night” — but overall the company is doing little to draw an association between their brand and the UFC (at least on television, perhaps they’re doing more at retail POS locations). I find myself wondering what exactly BSN is hoping to accomplish with its sponsorship of the UFC.
Note: the MMAPayout.com Sponsorship Blue Book has been updated.
UFC 114 provides solid night of fights, reason to come back for new fans
Overall, the event has to be deemed a success: the gate was excellent, the PPV sales will very likely be stellar, and show delivered with plenty of memorable moments to motivate repeat business in the future.
I’ve talked about the role momentum plays in PPV sales before and I think this might be a case where that comes into play again: UFC 115, in two weeks, isn’t a super strong card, but it’s got Chuck Liddell and will benefit from a reinvigorated UFC crowd. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the show do 500k.
UFC 113: 520,000 Buys (Early Reports)
May 24, 2010
Dave Meltzer of the Wrestling Observer reported last week that he’s getting early reports of 520,000 buys for UFC 113, but that he’s also seeing numbers which could point towards a number even higher.
Early reports on UFC 113 on 5/8 in Montreal have the show doing 520,000 buys, slightly above the 450,000 that the first Lyoto Machida vs. Mauricio “Shogun” Rua fight did. We should note that there were cable reports as high as 687,000 for the show, and trending patterns were only slightly behind GSP vs. Dan Hardy and the highest besides that show since August, which would also indicate something closer to the latter than the former. There are a lot of other measures that also indicate the higher number, but as far as the number of buys from people who would have the numbers and that can be confirmed, the lower number is the best number we’ve got.
Payout Perspective:
The website issues that have plagued MMAPayout.com in the last few weeks prevented me from devoting any time towards putting together a PPV prediction for UFC 113, but the gate and countdown data pointed to 491k (I believe my personal guess was 550k in the comments section of a related post). It was always a pretty good bet that the bout would do over 500k, even if Machida nor Rua were genuine stars, considering that it was a rematch of a highly controversial fight, featured a co-main war of words, and also had Kimbo Slice.
Here’s where things get interesting. I’ve been harping on how PPV buyrates go in cycles and that we were coming up on a big cycle in March. If UFC 114 performs as we all expect it will, the string of events from UFC 111-114 will be the first four-event string in UFC history to sell more than 500k at each event. It won’t be the most lucrative series in UFC history (that still belongs to UFC 97-UFC 101), but it’s still a feather in the UFC’s cap, especially in light of all the people that said the UFC had peaked.
I don’t expect the UFC will make it five in a row with UFC 115, but the UFC is rolling out the movie theaters for the event which suggests they’re looking to give 115 a little extra support (fight week promotion could push that event over the top). However, if the UFC can push 115 above the 500k mark, it should be good to establish a record string of events with 116, 117, and 118 this summer (Lesnar-Carwin, Silva-Sonnen, Edgar-Penn/Couture-Toney).
In fact, the way things are shaping up right now, the UFC could end up beating its mark for PPV buys from last year – something that’s pretty impressive considering they had a very bad start to the year.
UFC 113: Gate and Attendance
May 11, 2010
Dana White announced at the UFC 113 post-fight press conference that the event drew 17,647 to Montreal’s Bell Centre and generated approximately $3.27 million at the gate.
While UFC 113 marked the first time the UFC was unable to sell-out in Montreal, the event still has to be considered a success. The show generated the largest crowd and second largest gate for an event this year. Moreover, if you’re looking to compare, the first bout between Machida-Shogun drew just under 15,000 people for a gate of just over $1.9 million.
UFC 113: Payout Perspective
May 10, 2010
Welcome to another edition of Payout Perspective! This week we’ll be looking at UFC 113: Machida vs. Shogun II held in Montreal, Quebec on Saturday, May 8th, 2010. The event featured the heavily anticipated rematch between Lyoto Machida and Mauricio Shogun Rua, but also included a co-main event between Josh Koscheck and Paul Daley in which the winner received a title shot and chance to coach against Georges St-Pierre on TUF 12.
Shogun stuns Machida early, settles debate and opens LHW division
Shogun’s impressive KO of Machida was exactly what he needed to turn the page on the prior controversial decision and cement himself as the top light heavyweight in the world. It was a fight that may very well put him on the path to significant following (provided, of course, that he can follow up with one or two more convincing victories).
It would seem pretty logical that if Evans vs. Rampage draws well at the end of the month, Shogun will face the winner in his first title defense in September or October. Those are really the only two guys in the picture; Anderson Silva has drawn the ire of UFC brass and fights in early August; Forrest Griffin is hurt and still a win away from re-entering the title picture; Jon Jones isn’t ready yet and fights in August; and Randy Couture is almost set to face James Toney in late August.
The only other guy that might get a shot is Rogerio Nogueira, and that would largely be contingent on a monster performance against Jason Brilz at UFC 114 (followed by a disaster in the main event that same night).
Koscheck exposes Daley in more ways than one
Josh Koscheck exposed Paul Daley’s absent takedown defense in the one-sided wrestling affair most thought this fight would become once Koscheck realized he didn’t want to stand and trade. After the fight, a frustrated Daley attempted to exact revenge upon Koscheck for the three-round smothering with a cheap shot (and got booted from the UFC for his effort).
It wasn’t the first time that Daley’s been handled by a wicked ground game – both Jake Shields and Nick Thompson did much the same thing. If he could just add some takedown defense (or the ability to get back to his feet more quickly), he’d be a very dangerous opponent.
Koscheck will now take the head coaching position opposite Georges St-Pierre on the next season of TUF – a role in which he’ll almost certainly play the villain and try to get under St-Pierre’s skin. However, I’m not confident that Koscheck has the personality or the trash-talking skills to interest the casual fan (especially considering he lost the first fight and St-Pierre has been dominating everyone since).
Mitrione kicks Slice out of the UFC
Kimbo Slice was signed by the UFC to breathe new life into the TUF series and accomplished just that, helping TUF 10 to earn a series high average household rating of 2.2. But then he inexplicably managed to defeat Houston Alexander during the Finale and prolong his stay in the organization. That gave the UFC an excuse to use him on a PPV and cash in a little further.
Now the ride has come to an end. Mitrione picked Slice a part with devastating leg kicks that took away his base and ability to defend the takedown. It wasn’t long before he succumbed to a barrage of punches on the ground.
It’ll be interesting to see whether Slice moves to Strikeforce and fights the likes of a Herschel Walker in some sort of gimmick fight; although I suppose his appearance on TUF wasn’t much more than a ratings grab to begin with.
MMA Live Debuts on ESPN2
In April, it was announced that ESPN had agreed to air MMA Live on ESPN2 on a trial basis for the month of May to gauge public interest in a permanent move to the television channel. In addition to weekly episodes, Jon Anik and crew were also on scene at UFC 113 to provide a host of UFC 113 coverage including pre and post event broadcast coverage.
The UFC provided ESPN with footage of the Machida-Rua stoppage to use on MMA Live and Sportscentre. It’s not often that happens and there are generally two schools of thought here: one is that ESPN’s importance cannot be underestimated and the UFC needs to make some short term sacrifices to incentivize the network to retain MMA Live on ESPN2; the other is that once you give away your main event product, it’s hard to take it back.
I tend to believe the UFC needs ESPN if it wants to jump the chasm and reach that next segment of casual sports consumers – having UFC footage on Sportscentre Top 10 or ESPN2 is a likely precursor to further coverage (if not live events).
The real question in my mind is whether you believe that giving away the main event ending is going to hurt PPV sales; in other words, will people forgo buying the PPV if they can just see the ending on ESPN 30 minutes after the event? It depends. While events largely sell on the basis of their headliners, the value proposition of a UFC event very much includes the other fights on the card – especially for hardcore fans. The trick for the UFC will be to cultivate that sort of all-encompassing interest in a larger group of people (the ESPN demo) to justify these sacrifices.
Sponsorship Watch
UFC 113 saw the introduction of Allegiant Air as a broadcast sponsor (the airline brought us the fight clock for every fight). I’ve long thought that an airline would be a good partner for the UFC, but the industry has been in such rough shape over the last few years that very little sponsorship and advertising was being done.
Allegiant’s reach isn’t huge, but it is growing and currently offers 40 destinations to and from Las Vegas alone. The partnership has a lot of potential for both companies and seems like a good fit. In Allegiant, the UFC adds another sponsor with growth potential to its list of endorsing companies. In the UFC, Allegiant should gain from the exposure to that young 18-34 demographic. It’ll be interesting to see what sort of added activation they put into place, but I’d imagine they’ll be teaming up to create travel packages for UFC fans via Allegiant Air.
MMAPayout.com speculated a few months ago that MusclePharm was beefing up its sponsorships and increasing brand awareness amongst UFC and WEC fans in advance of an IPO. The company began trading on April 27th and several fighters on Saturday’s card used their banners to advertise the stock ticker MSLP. If any of you are interested, take a peak at their SEC filings – some interesting things going on there.
Lastly, the Blue Book has been updated.
Aldo vs. Faber: Payouts
April 29, 2010
The California State Athletic Commission has released the fighter payouts for Aldo vs. Faber. The WEC paid out a total of $336,500 in disclosed purses and another $280,000 in disclosed fight bonuses.
Courtesy of MMAWeekly:
MAIN EVENT FIGHTERS
-Jose Aldo $40,000 (includes $20,000 win bonus) def. Urijah Faber $28,000
-Ben Henderson $26,000 (includes $13,000 win bonus) def. Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone $14,000
MAIN CARD FIGHTERS
-Manny Gamburyan $36,000 (includes $18,000 win bonus) def. Mike Brown $21,000
-Shane Roller $28,000 (includes $14,000 win bonus) def. Anthony Njokuani $7,000
-Scott Jorgensen $21,000 (includes $10,500 win bonus) def. Antonio Banuelos $7,000
PRELIMINARY CARD FIGHTERS
-Leonard Garcia $28,000 (includes $14,000 win bonus) def. Chang Sung Jung $5,000
-Anthony Pettis $8,000 (includes $4,000 win bonus) def. Alex Karalexis $10,000
-Brad Pickett $8,000 (includes $4,000 win bonus) def. Demetrious Johnson $3,000
-Chad Mendes $8,500 (includes $4,000 win bonus) def. Anthony Morrison $4,000
-Takeya Mizugaki $16,000 (includes $8,000 win bonus) def. Rani Yahya $9,000
-Tyler Toner $5,000 (includes $2,000 win bonus) def. Brandon Visher $4,000
Disclosed Fighter Bonuses as follows:
- Fight of the Night: Leonard Garcia vs. Chan Sung Jun ($65,000 each)
- KO of the Night: Manny Gamburyan ($65,000)
- Submission of the Night: Ben Henderson ($65,000)
Payout Perspective:
Dana White assured the media and the fans prior to the event that the fighters would be compensated accordingly for participating on a PPV, but those cuts from the PPV won’t be disclosed.
PPV Market Cluttered, Difficult to Schedule Another WEC PPV
April 28, 2010
John Morgan of MMAJunkie reports that while its likely the WEC will hold another PPV at some point, there remains some uncertainty as to whether it will happen in 2010 or beyond.
As for the future of pay-per-view and the WEC, White said there was much to consider.
“We’ve got to take time and really look at it and hand-pick,” White said. “We’re doing so many pay-per-views, an boxing is going to do a few a year. You’ve got Vince (McMahon of the WWE) doing a bunch of pay-per-views a year. You have to pick and choose.
“We’ve got great partners with Versus and Comcast for the WEC. We know what we’re doing. We’ll do the right thing.”
White said there was no guarantee that the WEC would ever again host a pay-per-view event. But the executive suggested initial reports left little doubt that a second card would eventually be offered up for purchase.
“There would definitely be a number where we (wouldn’t do more pay-per-views),” White said. “But $1 million at the gate and the way it’s tracking right now, it’s not the night.”
Payout Perspective:
I find myself reading this and turning back to our brand vs. product debate from last week.
Zuffa’s task of selling a WEC PPV is unenviable not only from the position of convincing fans to pay for a previously free product, but also entering a crowded PPV marketplace and trying to compete with a less-recognized brand name. The UFC can compete with boxing and the WWE regardless of its card, because its built up that equity over the last 10 years. The WEC is at an obvious disadvantage.
I’m inclined to believe that those watching the WEC are some of the more hardcore fans in MMA. If given the opportunity to watch a boxing, wrestling or WEC event, they’re likely to choose the WEC. In other words, competition isn’t much of a concern for the WEC, if it’s simply looking to break even and sustain its current audience.
However, if the WEC’s goal is to expand its audience and grow its brand into a legitimate competitor on PPV scene, it’s going to need some combination of stellar promotion and the spotlight all to itself.
Then it’s a matter of whether the brand will be able to overcome the handicap of limited exposure due to the Spike-Versus arrangement; not to mention the confusion in the marketplace due to what looks and feels like a UFC card, really not being a UFC card.
