As Canelo Alvarez and Julio Cesar Chavez, Jr. get set to fight on the traditional Cinco de Mayo weekend boxing card, we wonder about boxing’s next big pay-per-view draw.
The two fighters in the main event were thought to be the future of boxing. You can argue that only one of them has lived up to the billing of being the next big star while the other has been a disappointment thus far in his career. For those that don’t follow boxing, Canelo is the fighter that is still on a career arc while JCC has the name and pedigree but perhaps not the desire needed to be a top star.
Last week, Anthony Joshua stopped Wladimir Klitschko in front of 90,000 in Wembley Stadium in a showdown between heavyweights. While Joshua is massively popular in the UK, it’s still unknown whether that fandom would translate to US audiences.
The overarching question is whether any of these fighters could translate into a PPV star for boxing.
Canelo seems to be the best active fighter to be considered a boxing star on PPV. He produced 2 million PPV buys when he fought Floyd Mayweather in September 2013 and 900,000 PPV buys against Miguel Cotto in November 2015.
But since the Cotto fight, Canelo has had lackluster PPV performances in a KO win over Amir Khan and Liam Smith. In the Khan fight, it was estimated it had between 460,000 to 600,000 PPV buys. It was later recalibrated down to 450,000 – 500,000 buys depending on who you asked. This is respectable but down considering Khan had some notoriety prior to fighting Alvarez. The Smith fight in September 2016 drew less than 300,000 PPV buys. This may be due to the unknown opponent and the prior rumors that Alvarez was going to meet GGG.
In 2016, the biggest fight of the year, Andre Ward versus Sergey Kovalev, drew just 165,000 PPV buys. GGG’s fight against Daniel Jacobs this past March did 170,000 PPV buys which was an improvement from GGG last showing on PPV. Yet, fair or unfair to compare, 170,000 buys is less than a mediocre monthly PPV. GGG is considered one of boxing’s best and can only muster 170,000 to pay for his fight, while a PPV with CM Punk drew 450,000 PPV buys.
In a November 2015 Sports Business Journal article former HBO PPV chief Mark Taffet identified seven factors that set apart PPV “megastars”:
- In-ring style – this goes to being an action fighter with the intent to KO an opponent in every fight
- Out-of-ring persona – Likable but also someone that sets themselves apart from the rest.
- Natural rivalries – this refers to fighters in the same weight class, or in a division close to their own.
- Demographics – this refers to the fighter being able to be identified with a particular group or audience.
- Media/technology – the ability to use social media to build followers and then monetize the opportunity.
- Intent – the desire to build a fan base as their career grows
- “It” factor – An undefined intangible, that Taffet states usually takes the form a storyline that is “unique and memorable.”
The likes of Vasyl Lomachenko, Errol Spence, Deontay Wilder and Keith Thurman may be on the next tier of boxing’s stars that have all of the above except the fact that they have yet to translate their in-ring success to monetary gain on PPV. None of these fighters have headlined a PPV. This is likely due to the fact that they see GGG and Canelo having trouble to gain traction in garnering PPV buys and are weary of pushing an event that might flop. Recall Terrence Crawford fought Viktor Postol on PPV and drew 50-60K PPV buys.
While Canelo’s last PPV outing was disappointing, Golden Boy will continue to promote its premier star. He has all of the seven factors above and if set with the right opponent, the fight could draw big PPV buys. GGG lacks the natural rivalry that would help him equate his talent and persona. The long-awaited showdown with GGG is in the offing and could give him a spark.
Anthony Joshua might be the next PPV boxing star. It is still unclear whether his UK marketability will equate in the U.S., but last week’s event which aired on Showtime and HBO drew great ratings. More importantly, once people tuned in, they saw a great fight in which he was knocked down but eventually came back to stop Klitschko. With 13 sponsors already in his portfolio including big brands Jaguar, Under Armour and Beats By Dre, the former Olympic Gold Medalist has the pedigree, the look and the “It” Factor to succeed.
Clearly, Joshua’s marketability can translate to U.S. dollars as it did for Manny Pacquiao. Notwithstanding the last year or so of his career, Pacquiao’s fighting style and large Filipino following allowed him to be one of the biggest boxing stars of the last 20 years. He was able to accomplish this despite not being from the United States. With his Mexican roots, Canelo is doing almost the same. Joshua may have an advantage over Pacquiao and Canelo as he speaks fluent English. Not to discount Manny or Canelo, but each has difficulty with carrying on interviews in English.
This year could be a big year for boxing starting with Saturday’s Canelo-Chavez fight. If Canelo wins, it should ready us for a showdown with GGG in September. If Chavez scores an upset, we can see a rematch later this year. In June, we will see the rematch between Ward-Kovalev and see if that spurs more buys this time around.
Despite the wealth of networks that will show boxing, pay-per-view is the gold standard for boxing as it generates the most revenue for all in this sport. For one reason or another, boxing fans have decided to hold off on buying their fights and instead wait for the next one on television. In a post Manny-Floyd era, the lack of star power to drive boxing PPVs must be a concern for promoters. But, there are several boxers that could fill the void. The question is how to build these stars.
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