UFC 109: Payout Perspective

Welcome to another edition of Payout Perspective! This week we’ll be taking a look at UFC 109: Relentless, which was held on Saturday, February 6th (Superbowl Weekend) from the Mandalay Events Center in Las Vegas, Nevada. The event featured a heavyweight clash between Hall of Famers Randy Couture and Mark Coleman, in addition to a middleweight contender bout between Nate Marquardt and Chael Sonnen.

UFC 109 by the Numbers

Attendance & Gate

In the post-fight press conference, Dana White announced the attendance for the event as 10,687 which generated $2.27 million in gate revenue.

Disclosed Payouts

Randy Couture $250,000 def. Mark Coleman $60,000
Chael Sonnen $64,000 ($32,000 show/win) def. Nate Marquardt $45,000
Paulo Thiago $30,000 ($15,000 show/win) def. Mike Swick $43,000
Demian Maia $62,000 ($31,000 show/win) def. Dan Miller $15,000
Matt Serra $150,000 ($75,000 show/win) def. Frank Trigg $30,000
Mac Danzig $40,000 ($20,000 show/win) def. Justin Buchholz $8,000
Melvin Guillard: $28,000 ($14,000 show/win) def. Ronys Torres $4,000
Rob Emerson: $24,000 ($12,000 show/win) def. Phillipe Nover $10,000
Phil Davis: $10,000 ($5,000 show/win) def. Brian Stann $17,000
Chris Tuchscherer: $20,000 ($10,000 show/win) def. Tim Hague $7000
Joey Beltran: $12,000 ($6,000 show/win) def. Rolles Gracie $15,000

Total Disclosed Payouts: $944,000

Disclosed Bonuses

Fight of the Night: Chael Sonnen vs. Nate Marquardt ($60,000)
Knockout of the Night: Matt Serra ($60,000)
Submission of the Night: Paulo Thiago ($60,000)

Total Disclosed Bonuses: $240,000

PPV Buyrate Prediction

UFC 109 was thought by many to be a candidate for the UFC’s lowest PPV total of the year, but a great deal of the indicators we’re seeing suggest that it will likely garner a higher buyrate than UFC 108’s 300,000.

Interestingly, Spike scheduled the debut of Countdown to UFC 109 following last weekend’s UFC 107 replay that countered Strikeforce: Miami on Showtime. The Countdown capitalized on UFC 107’s massive lead-in to draw 881,000 viewers, which is the 2nd highest reported viewership for a Countdown show (4th highest when you include last year’s UFC 94 Primetime shows). Moreover, the reported gate revenue for the event was $2.27 million, which is generally correlated with a buyrate above the baseline of 300,000.

The regression predicts the following:

• Countdown to UFC 109 (881,000 viewers): 869,000
• UFC 109 gate receipts ($2.27 million): 438,000

The UFC 107 replay lead-in really boosted the Countdown to 109 viewership, which wouldn’t have been nearly as high without it. The Countdown replay shown later in the week experienced a steep drop off with 323,000 viewers. If you take 323k figure the prediction is 200k, which is probably too low. So, the Countdown numbers really make it tough to sound out a prediction.

Randy Couture’s popularity continues to increase with every fight, but the UFC’s attempt to sell this as legend’s bout largely failed. The organization doesn’t have the momentum it had when Couture fought Nogueira in August, either (a fight that did 435,000 buys). Thus, while that exposure from the UFC 107 lead-in to the Countdown program should help, the ceiling for this fight is likely to be the gate predicted buyrate of 438,000. The low end is probably the UFC’s base of 300,000.

Greg Saks of Tapology uses internet buzz statistics to predict the popularity of a PPV, and estimates 315,000. Seems perfectly reasonable.

Business Story Lines:

Couture victorious, enters contenders picture at light heavyweight:

Randy Couture didn’t prove much in beating a clearly over-the-hill Mark Coleman, but the win is his second in a row at 205lbs. and likely enough for the UFC to give him a serious contender at the weight class. You can never discount Couture, and if he were to win his next fight it would likely provide the UFC with all the incentive it would need to give him a big money title shot against whomever happens to be the champion at the time.

Couture-Coleman underwhelms the casual crowd:

Dana White suggested at the post-fight presser that Mark Coleman’s match against Randy Couture was likely his last in the UFC, and given what we all witnessed, the UFC really has no choice. Coleman looked awful. Even despite the post-fight chirping with Tito Ortiz, there’s really no way the UFC could sell its organization as featuring the best fighters in the world when Coleman is so clearly not.

I brought several of my MBA cohort to the bar – as I often do to get their thoughts/ideas and expose them to the sport – and they made it clear that watching two 40 somethings in the main event was a farce. I can’t help but think that impression was largely representative of most casual fans that don’t have the perspective of history to understand how much these two men have done for the sport.

Yes, the UFC likely profited from this event in the short-term, but you have to wonder if the main event didn’t turn off more people than it recruited. MMA is trying to sell itself as a sport which requires tremendous athleticism, skill, and discipline, but the casual fan would not have received that message by watching Mark Coleman moving stiff and upright, with his hands down, taking jab after jab without offering anything in return.

The injury situation didn’t help the UFC – hopefully we’re through the last of that cursed period – but perhaps the answer is to simply cut an event when it looks like there won’t be enough talent available to provide a card commensurate with the level that fans have come to expect and casual fans have come to hear about.

Sonnen dominant, likely the next challenger at 185lbs:

The flamboyant Sonnen likely wasn’t in the title picture, even with a win over Marquardt, until he started trash talking just about every fighter in the UFC in the lead up to his bout with Marquardt. Then he came out on Saturday and absolutely dominated Marquardt with his wrestling, which provides the UFC with the justification to throw him in against the winner of Silva-Belfort.

Most are going to view Sonnen as the middlweight version of Dan Hardy; an opponent without much of a chance, but the mic skills necessary to sell his place in a title fight. The difference between Sonnen and Hardy is that Sonnen is more outlandish, while Hardy is more playful. Sonnen is the type of guy that most people love to hate; and if he manages to trash talk Silva like he started to last week, many are going to tune in just in the hopes of seeing him get his ass kicked (minus those in my adopted state of Oregon, of course).

This could be an excellent way to further showcase the tremendous skills of a guy like Silva – provided he gets by Belfort in April. While fans like a good, evenly matched barn burner, they also like seeing a dominant champion dismantle an opponent using his tremendous skills (Silva-Griffin for example).

This fight could really do big business for the UFC if they promote it strongly enough.

UFC 109 the biggest experiential sporting event this weekend? Maybe:

Sports marketing guru Joe Favorito writes in the Huffington Post:

This weekend there will be an event with lots of buzz, a sellout crowd, fans from all over the world tuning in, passionate supporters of the athletes buying up thousands of dollars in merchandise and brands looking to engage a core base of loyalists who spend money to support and activate against their brands. And then there will also be the Super Bowl in Miami.

 

The event we are referring to is UFC 109, which will take place at the Mandalay Events Center Saturday night in Las Vegas, and has become a great alternative for those who love football, but may love Mixed Martial Arts just as much or even more.

 

While there is still more than a little contention over how “hot” professional Mixed Martial Arts is as a sport, one thing is for sure, the UFC as an experiential brand, is certainly very hot and very active for the men’s demo. That will be in full view again Saturday, both in Vegas on one of the biggest wagering weekends of the year and for all those who will but Saturday night’s Pay-per-view. The event will feature a number of rising stars on the undercard, but will cap off the night with two of the UFC’s biggest veteran draws, Randy Couture and Mark Coleman, meeting in the main bout. So what’s the buzz all about?

 

The experiential brand the UFC has created for professional fighting is what is the base of the draw. The pay per view and attendance, carefully crafted by UFC head Dana White and his team, is fueled by the free cable TV model with Spike TV and their “Ultimate Fighter” cornerstone show, as well as their World Extreme Cage Fighting cards on VERSUS. Those platforms create the UFC promotional tool for their athletes. The UFC branding is consistent, and unlike many sports, they know how to speak right to their core fan and keep him and her motivated and engaged. When the UFC show goes on the road from their Las Vegas stronghold, they are able to pull in the casual fan to come and see what the excitement is all about. That’s how the experience and the spectacle works, and how it will make Las Vegas a huge hub of activity this weekend. From UFC-branded poker events to club after parties, the fan will be interested, engaged and immersed in the UFC lifestyle all weekend long. At least until Sunday night’s Super Bowl kickoff.

Prospect Watch:

UFC 109 saw the participation of some highly touted prospects in Phil Davis, Phillipe Nover, and Rolles Gracie, but only Davis was able to secure a victory. Davis demonstrated a ton of potential in defeating Brian Stann via unanimous decision – good wrestling, power and athleticism – but his technique still needs work as he swung wildly at times. Rolles Gracie, the first Gracie to fight in the octagon since Royce, was touted because of his name, but looked terribly sloppy in his debut. There ‘s a reason this fight was the first of the night, and if Rolles is going to stay in the UFC his game will have to improve dramatically in just about every aspect: footwork, striking, take downs, etc.

Sponsorship Watch:

Musclepharm and Silver Star continued to dominate the sponsorship scene at UFC 109 with prominent sponsorships on many fighters. Musclepharm, in particular, was really visible, but the company must ensure that it’s logo (“MP”) is linked to Musclepharm and what the company does. Musclepharm’s investment in sponsorship must go beyond individual fighters, and involve other forms of activation so that they can round out the message and really identify with that target UFC audience.

MMAPayout.com had an interesting conversation with some readers over Twitter regarding the t-shirt Nate Marquardt wore to the cage. The problem with the MMA t-shirt market right now is that there exists an abundance of imitation. Tapout and Affliction no longer own the skulls and bones image, because everyone is doing it; an Affliction shirt could just as easily be a Silver Star, Throwdown, or Dethrone t-shirt these days.

What that means for t-shirt companies is that they must become more creative when designing signature walk-out t-shirts, because they have to find a way to differentiate themselves from other brands. It must be a distinct design with prominent logo displays – especially on the front of the shirt (the camera rarely follows the fighter to the cage, it leads him to the cage). Tapout has one of the most recognizable logos in the industry, but it was far from visible (especially in a dark arena and confounded by the Ed Hardy like glitsy graphic adds).

These companies are paying big money to support these fighters, but also to promote their brand and influence purchasing behavior. Yet, the consumer can’t be influenced to buy the product if he’s confused about which brand the fighter is wearing.