Welcome to a new segment here at MMAPayout.com where we’ll analyze and weigh-in on some of MMA’s largest events from a business or economic perspective – a Payout Perspective.
The first edition of Payout Perspective will focus on UFC 101 held this past Saturday, August 8th from the Wachovia Center in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The event was headlined by a World Lightweight Championship featuring BJ Penn vs. Kenny Florian and a co-main event featuring Anderson Silva vs. Forrest Griffin.
UFC 101: The Numbers
Dana White announced at the post-fight that early estimates place the gate around the $3.5 million mark and overall attendance was 17,411. It’s anyone’s best guess as to where the PPV numbers will fall, but here are some of the factors that could influence the buyrate:
+ UFC 100 residual business: 101 is likely to have piggy-backed on some of the interest that 100 generated (both from the media and the casual consumer).
+ The UFC has managed to build a tremendous amount of momentum to start the first half of the year: PPV figures are by and large beating last year’s average on the account of the interest generated by some stellar fight cards (94, 98, 100) and the UFC’s new video game.
– UFC 101 left something to be desired beyond the main and co-main events: and, aside from Griffin, no one else on the card has been able to generate huge fan interest that would indicate 1,000,000 buys is possible.
– The Silva boycott: hardcore and casual fans alike were so incensed with Silva’s back to back performances at middlweight that his draw may have been a negative factor on this card. If anyone did boycott the fight, surely they’re regretting that decision now.
– Cut down in UFC marketing: the UFC hasn’t pumped nearly as many dollars into UFC 101 as it has UFC 100 (or UFC 94 for that matter).
I’d say the baseline for this fight is something similar to UFC 98: Evans vs. Machida where another “good, but not spectacular” set of main events managed 12,000+ at the MGM Grand, $3.2 million at the gate, and 635,000 PPV buys. Depending upon how influential some of the factors truly were this fight could end up doing anywhere from 500,000 to 800,000; like anything else in life, though, the result is probably going to be somewhere in the middle.
Business Storylines:
Silva’s Stock Rises: The key ingredient of MMA stardom is fighting ability – this much we’ve covered – and so, not surprisingly, the beating that Anderson Silva laid down on Forrest Griffin bodes very well for Silva as a PPV draw. Unlike Silva’s convincing victories over Leben, Franklin (twice), Henderson, and Irvin, the one over Griffin – a fan favourite and the first Ultimate Fighter – is probably the one that will put him over most with the casual UFC fan. It may take another fight – and stellar performance – to catch up, but if Silva continues he will become a draw.
Silva May Move to 205 Permanently: According to Yahoo! Sports’ Dan Wetzel, Anderson Silva may be prepared to give up his middleweight belt and move to the light heavyweight division in search of new challenges. He’s going to need those new challenges in order to remain motivated and fight the way he did against Griffin. If styles make fights, there are a lot for him at 205lbs, and perhaps only a few left at 185lbs (Henderson and Belfort).
Silva’s move to 205lbs. would also bring renewed interest to the middleweight division, which is actually quite comeptitive with the likes of Henderson, Belfort, Okami, Marquardt, Maia, Bisping, and Cote all vying for title contention. And the UFC could certainly use a more open, competitive middleweight division to help fill out its fight cards.
The downside of Silva moving up to 205lbs is that it eliminates a potential 185lbs. super fight between Silva and Georege St-Pierre. However, a lot would still need to happen for that super fight to take place; and if you examine the potential of that single fight versus any number of very interesting match-ups for Silva at 205lbs, the decision is probably obvious.
The only real problem with the move is that – as Wetzel correctly identifies – Silva has stated numerous times that he will not fight a friend. If he can put himself into title contention at 205lbs, he might leave the UFC hanging for a Machida vs. Silva title bout. Again, this presumes that Lyoto holds onto the title long enough for Silva to prove his contention.
The New and Improved BJ Penn: Where as we might have heard about Penn’s new dedication and improved conditioning before the St-Pierre fight, we saw it in the Florian fight. His dominance at 101 gives him the opportunity to establish himself as a somewhat powerful draw (fans appreciate consistency in addition to skill, the prospect of seeing a champion defend several times consecutively is a drawing plus).
The only potential hang-up at 155lbs is that BJ may be approaching the point where he’s effectively cleaned out the division; beyond Diego Sanchez, and maybe Gray Maynard or Tyson Griffin, who is there? Unfortunately, BJ doesn’t enjoy the popularity of Georges St-Pierre that will allow him to fight just about anybody and draw; nor does he have the ability to move up in weight like Silva (he’s already proven to be physically incapable of contending at 170lbs.).
The UFC will soon be in a position of having to find some significant contenders for BJ and that could pose a problem (the likes of Aoki, Alvarez, Hansen, Cavalcante, and Gomi are all tied up).
BJPENN.com: I wondered what effect BJ’s post-fight remarks might have on his website and it looks as though the numbers are up (whether the increase is meaningful or not is difficult to assess, BJPenn.com isn’t a huge traffic draw by any means). Nonetheless, it does demonstrate some of the value that the UFC can bring to sponsors looking to associate their product or market their product with the UFC. It’s also possible the increase in traffic is merely a result of BJ Penn fighting this weekend.
Sadollah Stoppage Yet Another Example: In listening to Dana White and Marc Ratner speak over the last few months, it’s become quite clear that the judging and officiating are very much on the agenda for the organization. The Sadollah stoppage was yet another example of a referee, Dan Miragliotta, being grossly out of position the fight’s most important moment.
The issue of officiating and judging is not just important from a fighter safety perspective, but also a sport legitimacy perspective. If the UFC wishes to be taken seriously it must seek to eliminate the gross inconsistencies that are bound to leave casual fans and members of the media confused. The sport already has enough working parts to figure out, adding officiating and judging to the list will only complicate things further.
UFC 101 Lacklustre Overall: The card left a little bit to be desired outside of the tremendous performances by Silva and Penn. It’s not enough to have entertaining fights, they also need to be meaningful; and fights like Neer vs. Pellegrino, Sadollah vs. Hendricks, and Nelson vs. Riley (swing bout) were probably better suited as UFN main card fights than PPV fights.
Check back later this week for updates on the business results of UFC 101.
Leave a Reply