A lot has been made over the past few days about Jackson vs. Griffin, the latest, and probably most high profile of controversial fight decisions in the UFC. The fight highlighted the inadequacies of the current 10-point scoring system and the need for some sort of criteria-based ranking system. Understandably, results like that of UFC 86 create a lot of confusion and may end up indirectly impacting UFC business.
Might Bettors Move On?
I think we all know someone that watches a particular sport just because they like to gamble on the outcome. Certainly, we all know someone that likes to gamble on a sport they love, just to make things more interesting. It should come as no surprise to anyone, then, that sports gambling is big money: within the United States the industry made an estimated $2.4 billion in legal wagers in 2007; also, consider that gaming commisions have estimated that anywhere from an additional $80 to $380 billion in illegal wagers are made in the United States ever year. Now, it’s anyone’s best guess as to just how much of that legal or illegal money is bet on the UFC, but that really isn’t the point – the UFC doesn’t see any of the commissions or percentages of the fees that bookies charge. However, the UFC does benefit from the added attention and viewership of people that tune into sporting events like the UFC primarily so that they can follow their bets.
The one true caveat of the sports gambling industry lies in expansive number of substitutes to any one event. Gamblers, these days, have literally hundreds, if not thousands, of different handicapping options on any of the big four, horse racing, auto racing, or combat sports. It’s not just final outcomes, either, bettors can now throw down money on whom they believe will win the first face-off or make the first three-pointer.
If the trend of controversial decisions continues part of this segment of MMA’s audience – unquantifiable as it may be – may grow fed up and move away from the sport in search of other, more consistent sources of gambling entertainment.
Legitimacy a Question
The decision from last Saturday’s main event also calls into question the legitimacy of the sport and its champions. Forrest Griffin is now the holder of the light heavyweight title, but despite his submission of Shogun Rua and decision victory over Jackson, how many people are truly convinced? With a stable of light heavyweights that includes Jackson, Liddell, Silva, Rua, Machida, and possibly even Anderson Silva, who could blame them for not believing that Griffin is deserving of his belt.
Not only does this underscore the importance of a scoring system suited to MMA, but it also highlights the need for a ranking system within the UFC and other MMA organizations. Questionable as the decision on Saturday may have been, a proper ranking system would at least lend some credence to Forrest as the current champion and legitimacy to the title shot he received in the first place.
The UFC is now in the rather precarious position of having to market Forrest Griffin as the champion of their most stacked division. Yes, he’s the first-ever TUF winner and the man that got the ball rolling for the UFC, but that doesn’t take away from the fact that this situation is similar to the problem that the UFC faced in marketing Matt Serra as Welterweight Champion. That is to say that Forrest isn’t the feared, “ballet of violence” like other champions or even like other fighters in his division. The UFC is backed into a corner in terms of their marketing options: they’re more or less obliged to push him based on his victories over two of the best in the world and that only goes so far.
Furthermore, how appealing is a Griffin vs. Machida title bout to the UFC? It’s not – at all. Yet, failing an immediate re-match with Rampage, that is the fight we should see next. Will it happen? Likely not, and that’s where we come full circle – that’s where the money and entertainment factor of the sport may jeopardize its legitimacy.
The 10-Point Scoring System
I am not suggesting that controversial decisions are exclusive to MMA or that they cannot happen regardless of the scoring system in place. Nor am I suggesting that Jackson deserved to win the fight.
However, looking at the way fights are scored in MMA, there seems to be a growing discontent within the community and I would argue the only reason this issue isn’t more profound is because a high proportion of fights in MMA are settled before the judges have an opportunity to weigh-in. Now that a controversial decision has been delivered in a title bout, it underscores the need for a revision to the scoring system.
The length and number of the rounds in an MMA match mean that one fighter has the opportunity to exude greater octagon control, better striking, better grappling, and do more damage in one round of the fight than in all of the other rounds combined. This, even more than the subjective importance of striking relative to grappling, is the problem with the 10-point system adapted to the sport of MMA.
How many times have we seen a fighter absolutely dominate an opponent for one round and then be edged in two others of relative inactivity? The Almeida vs. Cote fight from 86 could be considered as an example of a fight in this mold. Furthermore, why should a fighter down 2 rounds to 0 have to finish when the two previous rounds won by his opponent were razor-thin decisions?
I am not advocating that MMA abandon the 10-point system (Sam Caplan shares his views and makes some good suggestions over at FiveOunces), but I do believe the sport needs to move towards the use of more 10-8/10-7 rounds or it needs to implement a weighted-average scoring system that incorporates round scores with overall damage/effectiveness criterion. Regardless of the solution, any new scoring system must address the unique ability of MMA fighters to win a fight without “winning” the majority of the rounds.
A Criteria-Based Ranking System
The fans and the fighters alike need to know why a fighter is deserving of a title shot, because sometimes its just not obvious. The UFC’s latest roster building strategy has resulted in some incredibly tight divisions where any number of contenders may emerge. Establishing a set of criteria and using past precedence to move fighters up and down the ladder will create consistency in the match-ups for the UFC.
There’s also an added marketing benefit to creating fighter rankings, because it becomes easier for the average fan to follow. If the UFC starts calling a fighter the number #4 Heavyweight in the UFC, it’s going to give them something to get excited about and will become another reason for them to purchase the event.
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