Dave Meltzer of the Wrestling Observer divulges that Strikeforce: Nashville may determine the fate of MMA – or at the very least Strikeforce – on CBS Primetime.
The history of MMA on CBS has been two successes on the backs of Kimbo Slice and Gina Carano; a lukewarm
success on a show built around Emelianenko; and a failure on a show built around Nick Diaz and Shields in 2008.
“If we can get a good performance from this, then we’re really on our way,” said Kahl in the interview.
Kahl said CBS has agreed to do the show, which will be cross-promoted with an episode of NCIS: Los Angeles, one of
the network’s most popular shows, airing on Tuesdays at 9 p.m., with an MMA theme and featuring several Strikeforce
fighters, scheduled to air a week before the show.
Right now, CBS’ commitment to MMA is just for this show, but a strong performance on a series of events could lead to
CBS officially agreeing to quarterly shows. Kahl, a supporter of MMA on CBS, noted in the interview that MMA is still
considered controversial programming in some circles. In addition, the ratings, while strong with young males which
does allow CBS to draw advertisers they usually don’t get on Saturdays, are significantly lower than usual programming
in those time slots that cause less controversy and are guaranteed to end on time.
Payout Perspective:
Meltzer essentially captures the plight of the major networks have with MMA: whatever audience they gain as the result of MMA television is offset or surpassed by the audience they lose. Thus, at what point do they sacrifice their existing audience for something new and shiny? This is especially true where Strikeforce is concerned, because it doesn’t have the brand equity or star power necessary to pull in an 18-34 year-old crowd capable of really making it worth a network’s while.
NCIS: LA is not only one of the most popular shows on television, but its demographic skews older and more conservative. Thus the cross-promotion might be seen as a way to generate awareness and interest in Strikeforce from some of the audience that CBS fears it may lose in that primetime slot on Saturday. Whether that’s the result they get remains to be seen.
Nonetheless, the importance of this show cannot be understated: if the ratings tank, it could very well mean the end of Strikeforce on CBS. The flip side, of course, is that Strikeforce has the opportunity to solidify a strategically important distribution channel for itself moving forward; the kind that would provide it with enough exposure to further build the equity of its brand and its stars.
The one thing about counter promotion is it also pisses off the network you’re counter promoting. This is an oft-overlooked factor, but the people at CBS are not going to be happy about the UFC doing this. The general response to counter-promotion and dick moves in television is to up the ante, not to give up and go home.
It’s possible the UFC’s move will have the opposite of its intended effect: it could harden CBS’s resolve to promote MMA, and might even encourage CBS to put a summer show up against a weak UFC PPV show.
Let’s say Strikeforce would have done a (?) 2.3 or something without competition, and then they end up doing a 1.9 against Kimbo Slice. CBS does not operate in a vacuum. They’ll know why it happened. Have you ever seen a network cancel a show because it ended up against an American Idol special or something? The people at CBS will know what’s up. I think the fact that CBS is running a show without Fedor speaks to their commitment to MMA.
Not surprised about this, makes sense to me. With that said, I think it will do solid ratings, I think Henderson is familiar enough to casual fans through TUF and UFC 100 that he’ll draw and they will promote the heck out of this card I imagine during the NCAA tournament.
“It’s possible the UFC’s move will have the opposite of its intended effect: it could harden CBS’s resolve to promote MMA, and might even encourage CBS to put a summer show up against a weak UFC PPV show.”
I doubt the UFC is too concerned with CBS being angry at them, they’ve made it clear they don’t respect the way CBS treats mma and they are going to war with them as much as they are against SF.
Smaller overall ratings with high 18-49 and high 18-34 ratings > larger overall ratings with low 18-49 and 18-34 ratings.
Case in point: “60 Mintues”, the perenially top 20 rated show in overall viewers,averaging 14 million, but with poor-mediocre ratings in the 18-49 and 18-34 age demos, commands $90,000 per 30 second advertising spot. “The Simpsons” a show with only half as many viewers, aveaging 7 million , but much higher ratings among the 18-49 and 18-34 age groups, commands $200,000 per 30 second spot, over twice what “60 Minutes” gets.
Source: http://adage.com/article?article_id=139923#su
So a show with 1/2 the overall viewers is twice as lucrative, all due to the 18-49 and 18-34 ratings. Strikeforce finished last in overall viewers but first in 18-49 and 18-34. That’s what matters to CBS, not how many kids and old people are watching. Of course Strikeforce costs more to CBS than “48 Hours Mystery”, but Strikeforce has the potential for great ratings growth in the future as MMA’s popularity continues to rise. “48 House Mystery?” Not so much.
Ed,
The point of the article is kind of what you’re arguing, yes the overall ratings might not be great, but it’s hitting the key demos that CBS wants, however it seems that CBS may be using this event to see if MMA ratings really are growing… as they point out the Fedor/Rogers card wasn’t a ratings blockbuster but it did well, if this card completely flops (which IMO it won’t, I think with the NCAA Tournament as an advertising platform it will do well) or stagnates in ratings CBS might not be interested in ponying up the moneys to promote the shows.
To be honest i think SF on network primetime is not going to last and was never intended to. Everything on network appeals to most people. Thats why just about everything gets huge ratings and all networks fight each year to be the best and creat the next big show like 24, Idol, CSI, etc. SF had no chance in hell of bring in those ratings. They simply dont appeal to enough of the target demo let along all demos. Yes its great to hit the target demo and do well. But shows dont survive in prime time appealing to one demo. Even in the Simpsons example above. Thye hi the target demo but they also have 7 million viewers. Add to that a long history that has stayed strong over the years and followed them through many different time slots. SF isnt proven like that and dont have 7 million viewers. The UFC, even with that mass appeal would have to work hard to make primetime work for the long haul. Lucky for the UFC they have crossed over into more demos than SF and also have a larget target demo too.
The good news for Strike Force is as long as they dont lose some kind of ownership to CBS or Showtime. They will be in good shape if they dont get picked up by CBS. With the Primetime exposure and the target demo they reach it should be VERY easy to get a profitable cable tv deal like UFC has with Spike. Unlike their CBS deal which they probabely lose money on.
Hi Brian,
I don’t believe they lose money on the CBS deal, unlike the EXC. For example, I heard they got 700K for the Showtime event, they must be getting 3 times that minimum from CBS. CBS sold out its commercial timeslots the last time the event was on which is good money for them and a hard thing to do in this economy. I would like to see the type of deal that they have, but I’m sure its not a money loser.
I would agree that CBS is likely not losing money on MMA, but it probably comes down to how much money they are making. These are big productions with a lot of moving parts, so CBS has to weigh how much money they are making and if bringing in the key demo is having an impact across the rest of the schedule.
I was refering to StrikeForce losing money not CBS. Of course CBS is making money. But like the XC deal everyone made money but XC. XC sold their sole to Showtime just to get on tv. Showtime was owned by CBS and XC was forced to put on a higher priced cards for the contract they signed with Showtime. SO they went from losing a little bit of money to losing a lot.
I have not heard what SF tv deal is with CBS. But given the problems CBS had with Elite. I dont think they would have jumped back into MMA with a great TV contract. They got Elite for almost nothing. I can see them paying a little more but not what Strike Force deserves. Basically is CBS didnt get back into MMA cheap, paying SF next to nothing, i dont think they would have tried MMA again at least a non UFC promotion.
CBS isnt going to say “gee, we got counter programmed that’s why our ratings sucked” They are gonna say: “This shit aint worth it”. If youre a senior in High School do you play against middle school kids in a game where they have the advantage? No, even if they step up you cede your ground and move on to better things. CBS isnt gonna bother with this with or without taking counter programming into account.
I am hearing there is a good chance that StrikeForce and CBS may very well move from 4/17 to 4/24 an cripple the WEC’s fist pay per view potentially. If this in fact is what happens I truly believe it is America’s top Television network deciding that Zuffa better not keep screwing with them. This is quite interesting in my opinion.
There’s a lot of assumptions being made about the deal Strikeforce has with CBS. I don’t think any of these are based on fact. I’m not saying they are getting a huge sum, just from what I heard about Coker, Strikeforce will be getting more than they could have ever imagined.
Even if this whole experiment fails, and we know it will over time as MMA on primetime will last as long as wrestling did on prime time many moons ago, in the end Strikeforce have already grown quicker than they would have without CBS. I don’t think Coker’s goals in life was to be a regional promotion, he is a smart man, probably even smarter at promoting than Dana. Dana and the boyz already had a promotion with some history in North America, Coker is building it from scratch.
Just the fact that we are even talking about the UFC trying to counter program another organization with a live show gives you something to think about. UFC is very afraid of Strikeforce at the moment, so congrats Coker.
CBS is airing high school football instead of the NFL. They clearly do not understand the sport.
Good point Dojo.
Guru, you seem to be desperate to cling to any pro strike force arguement.
“Just the fact that we are even talking about the UFC trying to counter program another organization with a live show gives you something to think about. UFC is very afraid of Strikeforce at the moment, so congrats Coker”
The UFC counter programed Elite XC too. Was they afraid of that circus too? Its business 101. You dont make it easy on the competition, especially if the competition is building themselves off your hard work.
This brings back the arguement that a monopoly is bad in MMA. I think its best that MMA have 1 mojor promotion. Others think its good to have comp because it forced both promotions to put out a better product. Now that the UFC has given the consumer another option and Strikeforce is going to lose out. Noone wants there to be competition now since the UFC benifits from it. It sounds like the whole anti monopoly stance is just people with anti UFC attitude wanting anyone but the UFC to be the best. More than likely former Pride bandwagon rejects.
People bitch about compeition and when they finally get ti its front page news each and every time and people dont like it.
CBS and Strikeforce are NOTt merely piggbybacking on same fanbase that the UFC has developed. As Meltzer noted, Strikeforce’s audience on CBS is significantly different than the UFC’s. It is older, and it has a different geographic skew, i.e., CBS’s best ratings were in different markets than the UFC’s best markets.. That means that they are developing a different audience than the UFC, and drawing in viewers who do not follow the UFC. Of course, there is overlap, but it is not accurate to say that Strikeforce and CBS are doing nothing but capitalizing on the UFC’s fanbase.
CBS running a show without Fedor may not speak to their commitment to MMA as Mr. Rome suggests. It most likely speaks to CBS fulfilling their obligation and not wanting to continue. If anything, they would have delayed the show when they were on better footing if they were really committed. Strikeforce cant even put together an equally compelling card from 7 months ago, how on earth can they do quarterly shows on CBS?
I should add it most likely also speaks to CBS not wanting to pay Fedor’s fee before ending ties with Strikeforce.
ED
CBS has not ran many shows on CBS so using ratings as a measure of their fanbase is not accurate. CBS is a network whos viewers are much older and their programs cater to that. When you put on a Strikeforce card its normal for some of them to check it out. BUt if it dont appeal to them they will not watch it anymore. As strike force continues their older demo will disappear and what will be left is the cross over from the UFC adn what few fans SF was able to create. But there isnt many people who are unaware of MMA will be hooked by SF. There are very few young males watching “60 minutes” who get exposed to mma.
Elite XC had killer ratings in their first show on CBS afterwards the numbers fail. So basing their fan based on the millions who left would leave an inaccurate snap shot of their demo. So to get a true ideal of who SF is bring in we need a larger sample. But i dont see any evidence that suggest the MMA demographic is expanding outside of normal aging of the target demo. Especially by Strikeforces doing.
EliteXC’s ratings for their 3 CBS shows were as follows:
“Primetime”: 4.85 million viewers
“Unfinished Business”: 2.7 million viewers
“Heat” 4.56 million viewers
The ratings declined sharply for the second show because, obviously, Kimbo and Gina did not fight. The ratings for the third show were down marginally from the first, which you rightly characterize as “killer” simply because the main event lasted all of 14 seconds! If the Kimbo-Petruzelli fight had lasted as long as the Thompson fight, the ratings would have been as good as or better than the first show.
CBS viewers did not tune out of EliteXC when they had their big attractions fighting. There is no reason to assume that they will tune out of Srikeforce, either.