Chris Nelson over at Bloodyelbow has a good summary piece detailing some of the business ramifications of Dream 11.
Last night, DREAM returned to primetime on the Tokyo Broadcasting System for the first time since May. Following the show, event producer Keiichi Sasahara remarked that he was “expecting a good TV rating,” and today it looks like he was right.
Via Tony Loiseleur:
“Sasahara reporting that last night’s rating for Dream 11 on TBS was 12.7%, clocking in at no.2-most watched show during the primetime slot.”
While the number is a dip from DREAM.9’s 16.2% — which had the benefit of a Daisuke Naito WBC flyweight title defense as a lead-in — it’s also the highest mark the promotion has achieved on its own in primetime. For comparison, check the list of all the DREAM/TBS ratings at Nightmare of Battle.
Payout Perspective:
You can debate all you want as to whether or not the “strong number two” theory applies to MMA, but there exists another reason to hope that Dream can put some of its troubles behind it and continue to score decent ratings: talent development.
The relevance of a title contender or star fighter probably only lasts 4-5 years, and that means the sport is going to need to replace those fighters with a new crop quite frequently. Yet it’s tough to replace the headliners of the sport when the up-and-comers have nowhere to fight or can’t afford to train full time.
Thus, MMA cannot survive without a consistent and successful talent development system – one that not only allows fighters to grow their skills, but also pays them for their services.
The immediate value of an organization like Dream is that it provides exactly that: the requisite salary and media exposure to sustain an athletes income, in addition to some stiff competition in certain divisions. They’re a home to some great future talent, but also some that have lost their way and need to regain their confidence before regaining relevance.
The long-term value of an organization like Dream is that it may eventually work its way towards that “strong number two” position – perhaps in conjunction with Strikeforce. Then, in theory, the competition between the number one and strong number two leads to an expansion of the pie for the entire industry. (Everybody wins.)
History, however, would suggest that the “strong number two” argument doesn’t necessarily hold up in the sports league realm, because the product suffers from the split in talent between the two leagues.
While I agree, I also happen to believe that’s only the case within a mature sporting environment.
MMA is far from a mature industry, and the average consumer currently lacks the awareness to recognize when the product isn’t at its best. That presents an opportunity for Dream and other organizations to seize that number two position, and help build the sport even further.
Good write up. It is also noteworthy to point out that Minowaman vs Hong Man Choi got a rating high of 17.2%. Though MMA has definitely decreased in popularity in MMA due to the demise of PRIDE, freak show fights seem to have always been the fights that garnered the high ratings in Japan, since they have a strong history of mega fights meant for the casual viewer.
Sengoku is going the opposite route and is trying to legitimize Sengoku a little bit more. They Ishii vs Yoshida matchup should be huge for them, but as we all know, you have to keep putting on fights that the casual fans want to see, and that is a tough feat to do to keep garnering high ratings on Japanese national TV. I expect the same to happen in the United States withing the next 2-3 years.
Good for them that their show was a success. But as a MMA fan i have little respect for the product i have seen from Japan the last 10 years. In theory a # 2 or respectable MMA promotion creates talent for #1. But that wasnt the case with Pride. There was never a desire to find the best in the world. The last prospects they brough in were 5 years before their demise with Sergei and Alex. They reused the same fighters over and over and the only fighters brought in were just feeders, side shows, freaks, etc to keep the aging known fighters meaningful. Thast why The same gusy were at the top for 6+ years. When ever someone got into the Pride Bubble fighters were exposed. Sudokuju vs Nog and Arona. We seen the same as the Pride fighters left the bubble. Very little success. Where were the Dos Santos? Hazelettes? Anthony Johnsons? Jon Jones? etc.
So the theory only works when someone responsible is in control who is promoting a sport and not jsut trying to keep the Pro Wrestling loving Japanese fans happy. I have not seen that with Dream and Sengoku. There is still tons of fights, high profile fights, that look very fishy(works?). Side show fights that do nothing to further MMA. At this point Japanese MMA scene is still not interested in MMA. They show for side shows in force. But even with all the momentum Pride build in Japan. As soon as their cards were lacking the side shows. The cards become failures. Many of the events in the last couple years have did poorly. Now the numbers are back up due to a fight that was a circus fight. All this does is getting people watching who will never appriciate the true sport of MMA. Thinking they will be drawn in and learned to love it didnt work as the Japanese MMA scene has been in the can as of now. So all of Pride big ratings didnt create MMA fans. It just drew viewers from NJPW or other pro wrestling promotions.
The current state of Dream makes their success good for past their prime fighters and whatever fighters get in to make a few bucks. But i wouldnt expect them to comb the globe looking to give top prospects a home to hone their skills. This has never been the case and could be just part of the culture to cling onto the same fighters as K-1 has done the same thing. Fought its legend on a loop for the last 16 years.
Just my opinion.