UFC 106: Lesnar & Tito, Big PPV Potential

Yesterday, it was leaked, and then confirmed by various sources, that Shane Carwin is indeed Brock Lesnar’s next opponent. The bout will headline UFC 106 on November 21st from Las Vegas, Nevada; the same night that Tito Ortiz is reportedly set to take on Mark Coleman.

Carwin was supposed to face Cain Velasquez at UFC 104 in Los Angeles, but it appears as though the UFC is looking to avoid having either man eliminated from the heavyweight title picture. Velasquez, however, will still fight on the UFC 104 card against former IFL Heavyweight Champ Ben Rothwell.

Payout Perspective:

This has the potential to be a very serious PPV card. Lesnar or Ortiz headlining on their own have the potential to do huge numbers, let alone if both are on the same card. It may seem as though some are now trumpeting every UFC card to do 1 million+ buys, but here is why I think this card has a legitimate chance to actually make that mark:

• Brock Lesnar is the sport’s biggest draw: he’s been in a headlining position (main or co-main event) four times; none have ever done less than 600,000, and each has been successfully stronger than the last (UFC 81: 600k, UFC 87: 625k, UFC 91: 900k, UFC 100: 1700k).
• Heavyweight championships sell: no division in combat sports is a potent of a draw as the big men are.
• Lesnar’s UFC 100 Performances: he mauled Frank Mir, flipped off the fans, insulted Bud Light, and gave us a little TMI – people everywhere – hardcore, casual, curious, or otherwise – are more interested now than ever before.
• Ortiz is an MMA legend, one of the greatest draws of all time: he’s headlined two record breaking events on PPV and another on Spike (UFC 61: 775k, UFC 66: 1050k, Ortiz Shamrock III: HH 3.1 peaking at 4.3 ).
• UFC’s super-marketing machine: The UFC has a great deal of incentive to pump up the vaunted UFC hype machine for this event in order to set the tone and build momentum for a very busy year’s end (TUF 10 Finale, UFC 107: Rampage vs. Rashad, and UFC 108 which is an event that could likely feature the return of GSP on January 2nd).