When the Affliction clothing line announced its Affliction: Banned pay-per-view event, there was a great deal of skepticism. To be blunt, there is no way that the show will be able to make a profit.
Fedor Emelianenko, Tim Sylvia, Josh Barnett and Andrei Arlovski have big money contracts, and the ceiling for non-UFC MMA pay-per-views has been around 50,000 buys. That includes the Las Vegas Pride pay-per-views which had comparably star-studded cards, world-class production and a much stronger brand name. As a live event the Affliction show will take place at the Honda Center in Anaheim, which drew a $1.98 million gate for the last UFC show featuring Chuck Liddell.
The best case scenario for Affliction would be to beat every non-UFC MMA event in PPV history and to match the gate for UFC’s most recent live show at the same building. However, that best case scenario would make the company’s cut of PPV and the gate less than $3 million. That’s not enough to cover the $4 million to $6 million in rumored fighter salaries, let alone the countless other expenses that go with advertising and running a major event.
Promotions like Bodog Fight and the WFA ran major shows with the intention of challenging UFC, only to get cold feet when their first efforts ended up deep in the red. Without major backers, Affliction could have met the same fate, which led to great skepticism about the venture in knowledgeable circles.
That skepticism dissipated to a significant degree when Donald Trump announced last week he would become an equity partner in the Affliction MMA promotion. Trump brings some major positives to the table, and is a potential game changer. He has a brand that can attract attention to the promotion outside the hardcore MMA fanbase. He has business ties that could potentially line up a crucial television deal.
Most importantly, Trump’s resources allow the promotion to be patient. Affliction: Banned doesn’t need to be a financial success now. It can be used as a starting point for the future. Affliction can aim for the same path that UFC or pro wrestling company WCW followed: a billion dollar empire absorbs millions in early losses, seeking to create a foundation for future profits.
The two key targets for Affliction will now be Tito Ortiz and Randy Couture. Affliction has a host of talented and marketable fighters, but few are known by a large percentage of American MMA fans. What Affliction needs is a big star or two from the UFC that can bring in a larger audience and expose them to the Fedor Emelianenkos and Josh Barnetts of the world. Ortiz and Couture are the two fighters that can fit that bill.
With Trump in the fold and an impressive roster of fighters, Affliction has the building blocks for eventual success. The key question will be whether the promotion can stomach the early losses and keep the faith that bigger things are coming in the horizon.
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