The PPV Gap: Title vs. Non-Title
July 15, 2010
MMAPayout.com has updated its latest numbers on PPV trends, and there remains a significant gap of just over 200,000 buys between PPVs with title events and those without.
I’m not sure this comes as a surprise to anyone; it’s pretty intuitive and it’s something we’ve commented on numerous times before. However, you may be interested to know that the gap has closed slightly. Again these are rough estimates that we’ve tabulated through the help of Dave Meltzer and various cable company sources.
UFC 57-UFC 100
Title events: 596,000
Non-title events: 347,000
UFC 57-UFC 115
Title events: 603,000
Non-title events: 395,000
I’ve got a few thoughts regarding the above numbers:
1.) I think these numbers stress the importance of asset management for the UFC and Joe Silva. There’s always going to be a temptation to load up fight cards, but it’s always prudent to be conservative. I also tend to think this provides an opportunity for Joe to do what he did with UFC 116: make some great match-ups, showcase some of the younger, less-heralded fighters in the company, and wow the audience.
2.) I suspect the gap decreased, because of the series of events that unfolded last summer. The UFC had a tremendous first two quarters and built a great deal of momentum which it then used with some of the leaner cards in the Fall to draw a better result than it maybe should have. In January and February we saw a return to a more realistic series of results in the consecutive absence of title belts on the line.
3.) I expect this gap to widen once again. If you include the expected buyrate from UFC 116 (1.0-1.2 million) the title event average goes up immediately. Then consider the next few months: UFC 117 has a title fight (Silva vs. Sonnen) and a great main card; UFC 118 has a title fight (Edgar vs. Penn) plus Couture vs. Toney and is the UFC’s debut in one of the nation’s biggest media hubs; UFC 119 does not have a title, but should still fare decently with Mir-Nog II; and, then UFC 121 will feature Brock defending his title again.
4.) In my estimation, we’re probably headed for a gap of 300,000 buys in the next year: a 700k average for title fights and 400k for non-title bouts.