MMAPayout.com uses statistical regression analysis to match both the viewership numbers from Spike TV’s Countdown to UFC and the live gate figures reported by athletic commissions against the PPV buyrate numbers for each UFC event. The analysis produces a linear equation, which can then be used to take new Countdown or gate information and predict a PPV outcome.
The Data
We’ll only be using UFC 114’s live gate figure in our regression analysis, because the Countdown show was cut down to just 30 minutes on account of the 90 minutes used over three consecutive weeks to air UFC Primetime: Rashad vs. Rampage.
Dana White reported that gate figure to be approximately $3.895 million.
The Prediction: 700,000
The prediction process starts with the data set below; each symbol represents the PPV figure (vertical axis) and live gate figure (horizontal axis) for an event in the last five years.
Then the numbers are plugged into a regression analysis formula to derive a linear line through the data set, which allows us to pick a certain live gate value (on the horizontal axis) and find the corresponding PPV prediction value (on the vertical axis):
When we plug in $3.985 million into the linear equation – represented by the red line above – and we’re given a value of 690,000 PPV buys.
The Argument for 700,000:
The live gate for this event was quite strong: it’s the second highest gate total this year and the third highest gate total in the last 12 months for the UFC. Impressive – especially considering it was a non-title bout. Usually that’s a pretty strong indicator for interest in a fight.
UFC 114 also benefited from a host of promotion and fight week hype:
- The event is the beneficiary of two months worth of solid UFC events (111, 112, WEC 48, and 113) that all sold well and managed to keep the UFC relevant in the minds of both the casual and hardcore MMA fans.
- TUF 11 started at the end of March and has utilized Chuck Liddell and Tito Ortiz to push further interest in the UFC brand.
- Video game maker THQ released the much anticipated second edition of UFC Undisputed four days prior to the fight (May 25th) and nearly every gaming site in the world had a review of one of last year’s biggest hits.
- UFC Primetime: Rashad vs. Rampage debuted to the largest audience out of any of the three series and averaged 1.05 million viewers (compared to 789,000 and 706,000 for GSP vs. Hardy).
- ESPN did its part to promote the fight with a month’s worth of MMA Live broadcasts on ESPN2, in addition to several interviews on syndicated shows like the BS Report (even Sportscenter covered the event).
- The UFC also went on a full PR offensive during fight week: Dana White shuttled around the country as per usual and the UFC announced the formation of their UFC Canada office in Toronto.
Kelsey,
Any data on the significance of holding a fight card on a holiday weekend? Often people are traveling to see family or have other obligations. In my case I missed 114 because I was at a wedding. I’m wondering how that factor would play into your regression analysis – would the predicted buy rate increase or decrease based on a holiday weekend scheduling?
How many factors do you normally include in the analysis? Does season (time of year) factor? Considering that blockbuster season for Hollywood is the summer, I can see your point of how that’s a factor for MMA as well.
Diego,
Good questions.
The regression analysis inherently accounts for holiday weekends and seasons based upon the historical nature of the data set – previous holiday weekend cards will positively or negatively impact the regression equation.
However, there is no outright modifier that I apply to tweak the result of the equation any further. It’s something that I have considered doing in the past, but I’m waiting until we can build up a sufficient data set (70-80 numbers) before trying to add something that tweaks based on holidays, summer vs. winter, US vs. European (we’re probably closest on this onw), etc.
Re: blockbusters. That’s an interesting point – one that I hadn’t considered – but I think the difference between movies and sports, in terms of competition to MMA, is that sports are a “perishable” product. Game 6 of the Lakers vs. Celtics is only ever played once, where as Iron Man 2 will be available in theatres and on DVD forever once its released.
KP
Just read Meltzer reporting early numbers at 925K buys
I am hearing metzler is on the payroll take and reports false ufc ppv numbers. I have a pretty good sourse that tells me ufc 100 did 875,437. There real numbers are in the toilet…
I call BS on that SteelyDan. There is noone ut there going public with PPVs numbers. THe people who know the numbers are not talking, Dave himself only has info and sources to get an idea of the numbers. For someone to know if Daves numbers are right or wrong they would have to know the numbers themselves. So unless your source knows the numbers, wants to tell those numbers, and present to proof of why he is credible then people will buy it. Until then its BS.
Im sure Dave is good buddies with Dana White. But if he was on the take he wouldnt release PPV numbers at all, EVER. THe UFC has never wanted to share the numbers. Wy let Dave release them if you control him. I know you want to think the UFC lets him to embelish the numbers to help them. BUt thats not true. The UFC opened its books for a few events during the UFC vs Couture fiasco to prove Randy got his share of PPV buys. What those numbers also showed was the PPVs that the UFC has matched what was already reported in the MMA world(by Metger).
I am hearing metzler is on the payroll take and reports false ufc ppv numbers. I have a pretty good sourse that tells me ufc 100 did 875,437. There real numbers are in the toilet…
im so happy that there is Amy who has the real number on UFC 100….ive always wanted to know the real number.because GOlden boy challenged UFC on theyre own account that they would release the number of ufc 100 but dana didnt respond at all….made me suspicious…bob arum came out and said that it was south of 1 million and again dana did not respond…he only said he would jump from mgm if it reached 1.6 mill than said he would jump and up to now he hasnt jumped….big thanks amy …..its time to expose unethical marketing….
Meltzer has survived covering the wrestling business for years dealing with McMahon, and all of a sudden he is on UFC’s payroll? Get real, come with real proof or stop bashing a guy who has been respected for years and years.
Love that someone takes a poster saying he has a good source as “the real numbers” over Meltzer… simply fantastic, following MMA is a joke sometimes because of jokers like this
800k is a very respectable number… How many times do you think you can do over 500k without a white guy with moehawk and tattoos headling?
stop being blind….dana when he was pissed with ufc media about 2 years ago said.that the writers who were critisizing the ufc Was because they stopped paying them…heres the article…..came from DANA WHITES MOUTH:
In his latest YouTube vlog, Dana White went on a rant about Scott Ferrall. Ferrall is a sports radio host on Sirius Satellite Radio and has bounced from a ton of radio stations in the States. Calmlessly and seemlessly, White talks about how UFC paid Scott Ferrall to come to their shows and cover the events. He further claimed that Ferrall was holding him up for more money to cover the events and that UFC balked at doing so.
I find it fascinating that UFC has no problems publicly admitting that they buy and pay off the media. And, of course, you won’t find too many MMA Media writers talking about this because, hey, the UFC is the only game in town. Get on that gravy train when you can. What was it that I just wrote about fight writers being bought and paid for? Sounds to me like Japanese fight writers may not have as much to worry about as they first thought.
so there you go….they pay writers….my point is this why the hell would Dave Meltzer realease and unofficial ppv numbers if they are not official…what for? …..to make an illusion that ufc’s ppv are so huge but at the same time they are safe from any lawsuits thats why the labled it unofficial…its the same with herbal medicines which states no theraputic claims…lol….
and meltzer counts hbo boxing ppv buys and compare it with ufc. hbo list are all official…how come meltzer never comes up with showtimes un released ppv buys…im sure those marques vs vasquez …fights had some numbers in them..but he dosent …its all propaganda.
its irresponsible marketing at its finest…claims without proofs…
Except that Meltzer has proof unlike all the people making up conspiracy theories, Dave gets his numbers from people who work for the cable companies. They are as close to the final number as anyone who reports on the sport and he’s been doing this for years before anyone cared about ppv buyrates. And just in case anyone is confused when Randy fought the UFC and the UFC exposed how much money he off off his fight against Sylvia they showed that Meltzer’s estimate was in line with the actual buyrate number straight from the UFC. Stop with the conspiracy bs, it was a joke when Arum who’s lied about number himself repeatedly did it and it comes off even more ridiculous when the same accusations are made by people who were in diapers when Meltzer was covering the sport.