The Wrestling Observer (subscription recommended) has indicated that the initial PPV buy rate for UFC 166 is lower than expected. While no numbers were provided, the inference was that it was lower than the Bradley-Marquez Top Rank PPV the week prior which expects to have a PPV buy rate between 350,000 and 450,000.
If the inference is true, a buy rate lower than 450,000 PPV buys has to be a disappointment. While the main event was not supported by a strong supporting card, the Heavyweight division usually receives more than 450,000 PPV buys.
As we indicated in Payout Perspective, the last three cards had Cain and JDS on it and the lowest it received was 380,000. If the initial reports are true, it must be a concern since Cain and JDS are the two biggest draws in the Heavyweight division.
| Event | Date | Buy Rate |
| UFC 160 | May 25, 2013 | 380,000 |
| UFC 155 | December 29, 2012 | 550,000 |
| UFC 146 | May 26, 2012 | 560,000 |
One of the issues that the Observer points out is the loss of its stable promotional drivers.
Via The Wrestling Observer:
Losing FX as a promotional platform for the Prime Time was big, and obviously the synergism of the Spike/UFC relationship when UFC was the prime property the station got behind and heavily promoted those type of shows was huge in hindsight. But they still did well this year with Ronda Rousey vs. Liz Carmouche promoted off Fuel, with far less penetration than FS 1, did remarkably well for GSP vs. Nick Diaz, and strong numbers for Jones vs. Chael Sonnen and Anderson Silva vs. Weidman, topping 500,000 as recently as July.
The Primetime series on FS1 for JDS-Cain had a series high of a 125,000 viewer average. The one issue with the Observer explanation is that Fox is heavily promoting the UFC in its programming yet it has not converted into PPV buys.
Payout Perspective:
It’s interesting to note that the last time the UFC went to the Toyota Center in Houston at UFC 136 it only grabbed 225K PPV buys despite a strong card featuring two title bouts and the return of Chael Sonnen. UFC 136 had strong attendance and gate as the UFC also held a UFC Expo that weekend. Still, the PPV buys disappointed. Once again, two years later, while the attendance and gate were strong, the PPV buys may come up short yet again.
Definitely, the alternatives to purchasing the PPV were there on Saturday. HBO Boxing which included a rerun of Bradley-Marquez and was followed by the debut of the Ward-Gatti documentary, College Football and MLB Playoff Baseball all occurred Saturday night. The UFC Prelims on Saturday were the lowest rated on FS1 which was a likely indicator of the viewership of the PPV.
Jason,
What’s the deal with UFC 165? Interesting how they preliminary reports on 166 but nothing yet on 165.
Hahahaha….and the downtrend continues…..what’s next Dana to be rogans co announcer so he can hard sell the whole show? It’s not working hahaha…..since these are unofficial numbers…any news on jones Gustafson ppv unofficial buys?
…UFC brand image took a hit because of the low pay exposé…mainstream fans who might tune in because it’s suppose to be the next big sport won’t tune in because it’s a Cheapee paying promotion….
So is it safe to assume that 165 is way way way lower than 166? Lol….it’s a good thing Gatorade did not put out cash on sponsorship for jones haha….
Rumors I’ve heard for Jones – Gustafsson are around 400,000 buys (probably about what Bradley – Marquez did).
“…UFC brand image took a hit because of the low pay exposé…mainstream fans who might tune in because it’s suppose to be the next big sport won’t tune in because it’s a Cheapee paying promotion….”
That’s just silly. Casual fans are either not aware of the fighter pay controversy, or they’re not invested enough in the product to care. It’s just fodder for people rooting for the sport to fail. Carry on though, it’s amusing.
The $300 million dividend that Dana and Fertitsas took needs to be paid back at some point in time.
This weak buyrate isnt good at all
Machiel Van,
Yes the “won’t tune in because it’s a Cheapee paying promotion” comment was definitely over the top 😉 The UFC would be counting their lucky stars if they had that much casual fan interest.
Marcus,
Don’t know where you got that info but it looks like 165 could out-gun 166 in buyrates. That seems surprising but plausible. I would’ve thought the HWs would have drawn more interest than a LHW title against Gustaf.
I don’t think anyone thought this would sell well. After the second fight it was clear Santos style was going to get eat up buy Cain. I wanted Junior to win but ones he had no chance. Then for some reason PPVs in Texas seem to suck. Wasn’t Franklin vs Vitor in Texas also? It didn’t do well either. This e tire card was marketed towards Hispanics. Hispanics who dont follow the sport yet and who I believe get it for free in Mexico. Santos never has been a easy sell. Nicest guy on earth but isn’t a draw. I think everyone hoped the magic of rubber matches pulled people in. But with the fluke in the first fight and the o e sided beating in the second. A 3rd so soon was a hard sell. But it’s important to note these numbers are not that far off from the 500k that should have been expected. So the sky isnt falling. That small percent decline can easily be contributed to the conundrum that is Texas events.
Hahaha….yeah huge pay days elevate athletes to celebrity star status…that’s the reason they announce the pay in the first place….the announcement of 250million Mayweather pay went global easily……now you have p4p jones 165
and 2 best heavyweights fighting with no mention or hype on how much are they getting before the fight lowers the value of the belts they are holding…..especially the heavyweight belt….sounds like the minor league….
Lewis http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/general/others/boxing-lennox-lewis-prepared-to-make-comeback-in-fight-with-wladimir-klitschko–but-only-for-100m-8870755.html
Lewis says he was offered $50million to end his retirement while he attended Klitschko’s uninspiring unanimous decision victory over Alexander Povetkin in Moscow at the weekend, but would need double that to spring into action.
50 million offer now that sounds like heavyweight money….worth media mileage and people to talk about…..
Bring back BROCK! Seriously though, I think this is something we’re going to be seeing continue into the new year and beyond. They have so many shows now it’s hard to see any as being really special. PPVs aren’t cheap and people are much less likely to pay for a show that only has one meaningful fight. Part of why I stopped watching as much was the over-saturation of the product and the drop off of new talent being featured. I can only watch the likes of Bisping, Mir, Griffin, Sonnen, and the other old guard fight in meaningless upper midcard and sometimes main event fights.
@Leon,
The official numbers for 165 have not come out but indications have it around 380K-400K buys which is a low for a Jones headlining PPV I believe.
Lots of reaching going on here. Blaming a low buyrate on the card being in Texas? LOL seriously? Texas is the same time zone as usual. All you have to do is look at the MLB and College Football ratings which were both very high in 18-49 and determine they just picked a bad night to do this card.
Excuses The UFC has a ton, its always something! How bout the card was just bad and they have no one to blame but themselves. UFC is to0 expensive people dont have the money. Mexico Brazil and th UK get it for free but we here in the USA have to pay 50 bucks go eff yourself!. Their hype job is geared for a 14 year old retard. Ive said this before they have no real big names, god forbid someone gets too big and might try to get real money from them. They will learn and either fold, get bought out, or change.
Saladthief makes a good point, which is that it’s expensive to watch the UFC. I generally get 2, maybe 3 boxing PPVs per year (Manny and Mayweather) and other that that I can watch the top guys in the sport on Showtime and HBO.
Following the UFC is tougher. It’s more than 1 PPV per month, and I just can’t watch them all. It’s better now that there are higher quality cards on Fox, but realistically, 16 PPVs per year can’t all do 500k buys. There just aren’t enough stars to drive that kind of revenue month in and month out.
It will be interesting to see how they finish the year. If they can keep doing 5M+ PPVs per year, they will be the envy of all PPV promoters not named Mayweather. That’s $150M in revenue (half of the gross) plus the ~$100M they are getting from Fox, and the gate and merchandising.
It does seem like there’s enough money to pay the fighters a little more, but I’ve never seen a Zuffa P&L.
I don’t get it. Wouldn’t Occam’s Razor imply that all PPV numbers are down because more and more people are choosing to stream a lower quality image for free as opposed to paying for the higher quality PPV feed? It’s my guess that by this time next year, a four hundred K buy rate is going to seem like a lot.
I have never been against some fighter being paid more. The problem is the fans are so stupid about it they cant agree who should get paid more or they are illogical about their demands. I would only support fighters getting more who deserve it. Not just because they are in the UFC. The top guys could maybe stand to make a little more but that isnt worth the fight. The ones who deserve more are the middle level guys. I’m all for paying your dues and earning your way to a good contract In the UFC. Guys at the bottom haven’t earned anything and are getting a chance to prove themselves. After the first 3-5 fights it would be nice if they were paid a better salary if they are worth keeping around.
I would like to see the UFC start using the first 5 fights as a try outs. Where guys make 5 to fight and 5 to win. After 5 fights the UFC has to bring them on as 6 figure annual salary fights based on 3 fights per year. Or release them. This gives the UFC time to find the real talent. If they find talent he gets a good contract. If not they replace them with a new batch of rookies. This would cut bum fighters career in the UFC short. But it would keep the UFC from milking no talent has beens as card filler. But those guys never rise out of the bottom and only keep other young fighters from getting a chance.
After 5 fights and you “make the team” so to speak. Then You should get paid better. Currently a low level guy can stay low level his entire career and never make anything. Which he shouldn’t if he has t earned it. But it would be best if the UFC sentthose guys packing so they can move on with life. Wasting years of you life trying to make the team is pointless. Draw a hard line where everyone knows who is the real UFC fighters and who is card filler. Card filler shouldn’t make 6 figures. Consistant main card fighters should if they fight 3 times a year.
One of the issues the UFC is experiencing(though people are afraid to admit it) is that the demographic change of the top fighters and stars has not yet been matched by a demographic change in the fan base.
The UFC is still largely a sport watched in the U.S by whites. These fans naturally gravitate to white U.S. fighters. Just as Mexican fans gravitate to mex. fighters, Brazilians to Brazilians and so on and so on.
More and more the top fighters are not U.S. whites however. Leaving fewer stars that the current fan base is likely to get behind. I believe this is in part why the UFC has been struggling so much to create new stars.
Eventually the fan base is likely to be more populated by other groups of people such as Hispanics which will be more inclined to support guys like Cain.
Right now there are just not enough to result in big ppv buys.
Jesus christ,
these numbers are absolutely atrocious. How the hell could a heavyweight showdown between two fighter who are obviously skilled and match-up intriguingly and have (supposedly) great demographics supporting them score so horribly.
I guess all the Mexican fight fans are broke after the Mayweather vs Canelo fight because none of them bought Cain’s fight. And how can the score so lowly in America while the boxing heavyweight division is obviously broken and fight fans should be fiending for some great heavyweight action.
The UFC is obviously suffering enormously from the strain that the partnership with Fox sport one is delivering. Frankly,while Dana might praise the partnership with Fox his companies bottomline does not seem to agree.
Instead of more main stream acceptance and the UFC becoming stronger they are pulling some of the worst PPV numbers ever. JBJ vs Gus bombed (perhaps expectantly) but now this card around the same number. It was a card filled with glory yet nobody is watching it anymore.
The UFC have a major issue with PPV buys. I will not be suprised if UFC 168 does much worse then most people think (perhaps even under a million buys). They have little to no stars that translate to solid viewership anymore,they frankly do NOT have a televisionpartnership in North America that is benefical to the company and the flooding of the airwaves with free content is not helping out the PPV model.
You would think that the sport would evolve and takes big steps forward. Instead it seems to only take steps backswards. Something drastic needs to change because this is not good at all .
The problem is “earning it” is very subjective. it is also subject to the whim of one dana white who has a penchant for erratic and illogical moves. like cutting a guy like gerald harris after losing one fight following a three fight win streak. or releasing okami or fitch. what is predictable is hjs twice annual shtick about the roster being too full. as if it was an accident and he wasn’t gathering fighters to keep them from other promotions.
It is subjective. Since its his company it has every right to be subjective. I like how you think he is grabbing up fighters from other promotions. Then in the same breath claim he is in the business of releasing top talent for no reason.
Harris release was strange. But when you realize why he was in the UFC. His release makes perfect sense. HE ambushed Dana on, I believe, MMA junkie radio. Put him on the spot and asked for a spot in the UFC. Claimed he was some badass with a great record. Dana was nice and give him a chance to back his mouth up. He lost in his 3rd fight I believe and he was released.
He got his spot in the UFC by unconventional ways and it was fitting he lost his spot the same way. Maybe he should have been more classy in his approach to getting in the UFC.
As for the subjectivity. I don’t think it matters if it is subjective. Setting a “line in the sand” so to speak where everyone knows where the line is to be considered “established”. I don’t mind fighters getting paid. BUt I don’t want people getting rish during the “Try Out” process. Other sport leagues allow bust rookies to milk huge amounts of money from the league then never win a game or last 3 seasons on the bench. We also don’t need to give incentive to small show fighters to cherry pick and fabricate records to get that UFC lottery ticket. Giving the UFC some fights to fight who is legit would allow more money for those who really are legit. That line can be 5 fights. 10 fights. It doesn’t really matter as long as everyone knows where it is and what they are fighting for.
Having this line of establishment for fighters. Will make it more possible for a union type later down the road when the sport is bigger. We would know exactly who is considered “part of the team”. So they can debate the “league” minimum. This would be a great first step so the UFC can protect the fighters who enjoy long careers in the UFC even if they never get a title. Without bons money. A guy like Chris Lytle would have never made much money to live confortable. Even though he has 22 fights in the UFC counting his 2 TUF exhibition fights. He never made it to the top but provided a lot for the UFC and should be rewarded for that service even though he kind of stayed middle of the pack for a very long time.
Anomandar, UFC 168 has no chance of hitting a million buys. A good number would be 750K buys, a really good number would be 850K buys. If it does less than 700K, I’m sure the red flags will start to be raised at the UFC offices as GSP hasn’t done lower than that since 2008, before the peak.
Anomandar
Hispanics fight fans tend to favor fighters who go toe to toe..fighter who “risks” more /all and leave everything in the ring.machismo culture….Cain fights more in a ” safe and sure/smart way”…..
Yeah, Listen to Tops! He eat at Taco Bell once. He knows the Hispanic culture! lmao!
Julio Cesar chaves, erick morales,Barrera,Castillo,Roberto duran(panama) cotto Porto rico,Fernando Vargas,Salvador Sanchez…canelo….these are some favorite Hispanic fighters…they’re skilled but they come to fight……
Puerto Rico I mean
MMAguru,
I think you mean UFC 167 with GSP. DW and co. keep talking about 168 (Anderson/Ronda) being equal or greater than UFC 100 which is not going to happen.
The supporting cast for 167 isn’t strong in star power so I think you will likely see this being a low PPV for GSP, somewhere in the 600-700 ish range, especially since there’s no bad blood or beef to promote it (aka Diaz).
UFC 168, right after Christmas, and for other reasons, will definitely not surpass UFC 100 as being one of the biggest PPVs ever. If that’s what you were referring to, I’d say anything over 750k would be excellent.
One thing for certain is it still won’t prove whether Ronda Rousey is a true draw (vs novelty) or not, since her share of the sales will be washed in with the Anderson/Weidman re-match.
“Dana was nice and give him a chance to back his mouth up. He lost in his 3rd fight I believe and he was released.
Maybe he should have been more classy in his approach to getting in the UFC.”
He lost his 4th fight, after winning three by stoppage. And when I think classy, the UFC is not the first thing that comes to mind.
Also, Tops is correct in his (generalized) assessment of Latin fight fans. One of the things that has hurt MMA’s popularity in Mexico is the ground work and the clinching against the cage – no matter how technical and skilled it might be. Mexicans like to see guys who are swinging hard and risking everything for the KO. It’s part of the reason that Marquez with his counter-striking style, though the most accomplished Mexican fighter plying his trade, has struggled to gain popularity in Mexico (or at least he did before he KOd Manny).
Cain having a giant super-racist “Brown Pride” tattoo on his chest kind of limits his appeal.
Maybe if the UFC didn’t heavily promote racists like Cain Velasquez they would do better.
UFC has zero tolerance policy towards white racists, as it should. But it should have a zero tolerance policy towards all racists.