UFC 115 PPV Prediction: 460,000
June 22, 2010
MMAPayout.com uses statistical regression analysis to match both the viewership numbers from Spike TV’s Countdown to UFC and the live gate figures reported by athletic commissions against the PPV buyrate numbers for each UFC event. The analysis produces a linear equation, which can then be used to take new Countdown or gate information and predict a PPV outcome.
The Data
We’ll be using both the Countdown to UFC and live gate figures from UFC 115 in this week’s regression analysis, but it’s worth noting that the nature of the UFC’s debut in Vancouver has made the live gate a less reliable indicator than normal (it’s generally the more volatile of the two):
Countdown to UFC 115: 453,000
Live gate: $4.2 million
The Prediction
The prediction process starts with the data set below; each symbol represents the PPV figure (vertical axis) and Countdown to UFC figure (horizontal axis) for an event in the last four years.
Then the numbers are plugged into a regression analysis formula to derive a linear line through the data set, which allows us to pick a certain Countdown figure (on the horizontal axis) and find the corresponding PPV prediction value (on the vertical axis):
When we plug in 453,000 viewers into the linear equation – represented by the red line above – we’re given a value of 371,000 PPV buys. The same process is performed with the live gate data and results in an estimate of 739,000. Then we plug the two figures into an equal weighted average (50% each, for now) to get our preliminary estimate:
- Countdown to UFC 115 prediction: 371,000
- UFC 115 live gate prediction: 739,000
- Equal weighted average prediction: 555,000
The Argument for 555,000:
- TUF 11: the Ultimate Fighter has always proven to be an effective marketing tool for PPV events and there’s no reason to believe this season (that experienced a slight up-tick in ratings compared to previous non-Kimbo seasons) was any less effective.
- Chuck Liddell: he’s the most popular fighter in UFC history and will always draw some interest. Coming off a full season of TUF promotion, the UFC likely managed to evoke a degree of nostalgia in its fans.
- PPV momentum: the UFC typically sells in cycles, and its currently running a streak of four shows in a row that have sold 500k or more. The many fans that tuned in for UFC 114 might have been persuaded to give Chuck Liddell one more chance.
- Media exposure: the UFC is at an all-time high where media exposure is concerned. ESPN is now dedicating one hour per week to the sport and the UFC is likely still benefiting from all the press it’s been getting from the release of its video game (even if the sales figures have failed to meet analyst expectations).
The Argument Against 555,000:
- Normally, a gate of $4.2 million would indicate serious North American interest in a fight card, but this is a special case where the live gate is more a reflection of, or testament to, the strength of the Vancouver (Canadian) market than anything else. The gate being so high probably skewed the weighted average prediction higher than what it should be.
- Chuck Liddell: part of Chuck’s appeal was his ability to back up his menacing look with downright scary punching power, but without the ability to knock people out, the entire package has become less appealing to the fans.
- PPV momentum: the upswing in UFC PPV buys has to stop or slow at some point, and UFC 115 is the most likely event for such a slow down to occur. Just look at the events from UFC 111 clear to UFC 118 – it’s easy to identify the weak link in the chain.
- The NBA Finals: the casual market was likely still tied up in an NBA Finals that turned into a barn burner of a series that went seven games.
- UFC 115 a non-title fight: it’s a fact that non-title fights far under-perform title fights (the average being 370k to ~600k).
Conclusion: 555,000 likely a little too high
The event will probably generate a buy rate above the 400,000 mark, because the UFC likely benefited from some of its momentum and some great media exposure in May. However, the argument against 555,000 is pretty strong and it would seem a long shot that this fight does that well (note: although Dave Meltzer is reporting trending estimates at 520k).
If we adjust the weighted average to reflect a more accurate allotment (something like 75-25 in favor of the Countdown show, which is typically what we do when one of the variables is skewed), we arrive at a final prediction of 460,000 buys.
UFC 113: 520,000 Buys (Early Reports)
May 24, 2010
Dave Meltzer of the Wrestling Observer reported last week that he’s getting early reports of 520,000 buys for UFC 113, but that he’s also seeing numbers which could point towards a number even higher.
Early reports on UFC 113 on 5/8 in Montreal have the show doing 520,000 buys, slightly above the 450,000 that the first Lyoto Machida vs. Mauricio “Shogun” Rua fight did. We should note that there were cable reports as high as 687,000 for the show, and trending patterns were only slightly behind GSP vs. Dan Hardy and the highest besides that show since August, which would also indicate something closer to the latter than the former. There are a lot of other measures that also indicate the higher number, but as far as the number of buys from people who would have the numbers and that can be confirmed, the lower number is the best number we’ve got.
Payout Perspective:
The website issues that have plagued MMAPayout.com in the last few weeks prevented me from devoting any time towards putting together a PPV prediction for UFC 113, but the gate and countdown data pointed to 491k (I believe my personal guess was 550k in the comments section of a related post). It was always a pretty good bet that the bout would do over 500k, even if Machida nor Rua were genuine stars, considering that it was a rematch of a highly controversial fight, featured a co-main war of words, and also had Kimbo Slice.
Here’s where things get interesting. I’ve been harping on how PPV buyrates go in cycles and that we were coming up on a big cycle in March. If UFC 114 performs as we all expect it will, the string of events from UFC 111-114 will be the first four-event string in UFC history to sell more than 500k at each event. It won’t be the most lucrative series in UFC history (that still belongs to UFC 97-UFC 101), but it’s still a feather in the UFC’s cap, especially in light of all the people that said the UFC had peaked.
I don’t expect the UFC will make it five in a row with UFC 115, but the UFC is rolling out the movie theaters for the event which suggests they’re looking to give 115 a little extra support (fight week promotion could push that event over the top). However, if the UFC can push 115 above the 500k mark, it should be good to establish a record string of events with 116, 117, and 118 this summer (Lesnar-Carwin, Silva-Sonnen, Edgar-Penn/Couture-Toney).
In fact, the way things are shaping up right now, the UFC could end up beating its mark for PPV buys from last year – something that’s pretty impressive considering they had a very bad start to the year.
TUF 11, Episode 7: 1.3HH
May 14, 2010
MMAPayout.com has learned that the seventh episode of TUF 11 earned a 1.3 HH rating on the strength of 1.8 million viewers; the broadcast also drew a 1.9 in the M18-34 and 1.7 in the M18-49 demographics.
Payout Perspective:
The ratings have leveled off at the 1.3 marking over the last 3-4 weeks and enough episodes have passed to suggest that 1.3 is likely where this show will end up in aggregate. However, I wouldn’t be surprised to see an up-tick in interest on account of the Tito-Franklin angle in the next couple weeks.
The 1.3 average is materially higher than what the show did pre-Kimbo (TUF 10), which suggests that some of the new viewers he brought to last year’s season have stuck around for this one as well. His recent departure raised some eyebrows considering how big of a draw he was for the organization, but I’m reluctant to call the departure a bad move. In fact, I think it was probably the right time for him to be cut: the UFC gave him a shot, got what it wanted out of the deal, and was able to move on without hurting its credibility to any significant degree.
UFC 113: Payout Perspective
May 10, 2010
Welcome to another edition of Payout Perspective! This week we’ll be looking at UFC 113: Machida vs. Shogun II held in Montreal, Quebec on Saturday, May 8th, 2010. The event featured the heavily anticipated rematch between Lyoto Machida and Mauricio Shogun Rua, but also included a co-main event between Josh Koscheck and Paul Daley in which the winner received a title shot and chance to coach against Georges St-Pierre on TUF 12.
Shogun stuns Machida early, settles debate and opens LHW division
Shogun’s impressive KO of Machida was exactly what he needed to turn the page on the prior controversial decision and cement himself as the top light heavyweight in the world. It was a fight that may very well put him on the path to significant following (provided, of course, that he can follow up with one or two more convincing victories).
It would seem pretty logical that if Evans vs. Rampage draws well at the end of the month, Shogun will face the winner in his first title defense in September or October. Those are really the only two guys in the picture; Anderson Silva has drawn the ire of UFC brass and fights in early August; Forrest Griffin is hurt and still a win away from re-entering the title picture; Jon Jones isn’t ready yet and fights in August; and Randy Couture is almost set to face James Toney in late August.
The only other guy that might get a shot is Rogerio Nogueira, and that would largely be contingent on a monster performance against Jason Brilz at UFC 114 (followed by a disaster in the main event that same night).
Koscheck exposes Daley in more ways than one
Josh Koscheck exposed Paul Daley’s absent takedown defense in the one-sided wrestling affair most thought this fight would become once Koscheck realized he didn’t want to stand and trade. After the fight, a frustrated Daley attempted to exact revenge upon Koscheck for the three-round smothering with a cheap shot (and got booted from the UFC for his effort).
It wasn’t the first time that Daley’s been handled by a wicked ground game – both Jake Shields and Nick Thompson did much the same thing. If he could just add some takedown defense (or the ability to get back to his feet more quickly), he’d be a very dangerous opponent.
Koscheck will now take the head coaching position opposite Georges St-Pierre on the next season of TUF – a role in which he’ll almost certainly play the villain and try to get under St-Pierre’s skin. However, I’m not confident that Koscheck has the personality or the trash-talking skills to interest the casual fan (especially considering he lost the first fight and St-Pierre has been dominating everyone since).
Mitrione kicks Slice out of the UFC
Kimbo Slice was signed by the UFC to breathe new life into the TUF series and accomplished just that, helping TUF 10 to earn a series high average household rating of 2.2. But then he inexplicably managed to defeat Houston Alexander during the Finale and prolong his stay in the organization. That gave the UFC an excuse to use him on a PPV and cash in a little further.
Now the ride has come to an end. Mitrione picked Slice a part with devastating leg kicks that took away his base and ability to defend the takedown. It wasn’t long before he succumbed to a barrage of punches on the ground.
It’ll be interesting to see whether Slice moves to Strikeforce and fights the likes of a Herschel Walker in some sort of gimmick fight; although I suppose his appearance on TUF wasn’t much more than a ratings grab to begin with.
MMA Live Debuts on ESPN2
In April, it was announced that ESPN had agreed to air MMA Live on ESPN2 on a trial basis for the month of May to gauge public interest in a permanent move to the television channel. In addition to weekly episodes, Jon Anik and crew were also on scene at UFC 113 to provide a host of UFC 113 coverage including pre and post event broadcast coverage.
The UFC provided ESPN with footage of the Machida-Rua stoppage to use on MMA Live and Sportscentre. It’s not often that happens and there are generally two schools of thought here: one is that ESPN’s importance cannot be underestimated and the UFC needs to make some short term sacrifices to incentivize the network to retain MMA Live on ESPN2; the other is that once you give away your main event product, it’s hard to take it back.
I tend to believe the UFC needs ESPN if it wants to jump the chasm and reach that next segment of casual sports consumers – having UFC footage on Sportscentre Top 10 or ESPN2 is a likely precursor to further coverage (if not live events).
The real question in my mind is whether you believe that giving away the main event ending is going to hurt PPV sales; in other words, will people forgo buying the PPV if they can just see the ending on ESPN 30 minutes after the event? It depends. While events largely sell on the basis of their headliners, the value proposition of a UFC event very much includes the other fights on the card – especially for hardcore fans. The trick for the UFC will be to cultivate that sort of all-encompassing interest in a larger group of people (the ESPN demo) to justify these sacrifices.
Sponsorship Watch
UFC 113 saw the introduction of Allegiant Air as a broadcast sponsor (the airline brought us the fight clock for every fight). I’ve long thought that an airline would be a good partner for the UFC, but the industry has been in such rough shape over the last few years that very little sponsorship and advertising was being done.
Allegiant’s reach isn’t huge, but it is growing and currently offers 40 destinations to and from Las Vegas alone. The partnership has a lot of potential for both companies and seems like a good fit. In Allegiant, the UFC adds another sponsor with growth potential to its list of endorsing companies. In the UFC, Allegiant should gain from the exposure to that young 18-34 demographic. It’ll be interesting to see what sort of added activation they put into place, but I’d imagine they’ll be teaming up to create travel packages for UFC fans via Allegiant Air.
MMAPayout.com speculated a few months ago that MusclePharm was beefing up its sponsorships and increasing brand awareness amongst UFC and WEC fans in advance of an IPO. The company began trading on April 27th and several fighters on Saturday’s card used their banners to advertise the stock ticker MSLP. If any of you are interested, take a peak at their SEC filings – some interesting things going on there.
Lastly, the Blue Book has been updated.
MMAterial Facts (05/07/10): UFC 113 PPV Goes Mobile, Shine Fights On
May 7, 2010
- Shine Fights Dismisses Threat of Don King Legal Action Against Ricardo Mayorga
- UFC to Offer UFC 113 PPV to FLO TV Mobile Devices
- M-1 Global, Strikeforce come to terms; Emelianenko vs. Werdum set for June 26
- Zuffa Files Suit for ‘The Ultimate Fighter’ Domain Name TV census ad
- “TUF Canada” targeted for 2011; UFC seeks TV deals in China, India, South Korea
Shine Fights Dismisses Threat of Don King Legal Action Against Ricardo Mayorga
Despite demands from Don King Productions to “cease and desist” promoting Ricardo Mayorga, Shine Fights Promotions CEO Devin Price is assuring fight fans that the May 15th MMA event “WORLDS COLLIDE: MAYORGA VS. THOMAS” will go forward “without a doubt.” Price also added, “Shine Fights has a valid and exclusive promotional contract with Ricardo Mayorga for mixed martial arts. We are pleased to offer both MMA fans and boxing fans a great night of MMA action on Saturday, May 15th.”
“When we announced this fight I said that we think Mayorga’s fans are just that, his fans, and that they will follow him to MMA,” said Price. “Our target is to convert many boxing fans into fans of both sports.” (PRESS RELEASE)
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Don King Productions issues Cease and Desist
Don King Productions has a valid promotional contract granting the right of exclusive representation of Ricardo Mayorga and has advised Shine Fight Promotions accordingly.
Shine Fight Promotions’ conduct constitutes tortious interference with Don King Productions’ agreement with Ricardo Mayorga, and Don King Productions has requested they immediately cease and desist promoting Ricardo Mayorga at one of their events to avoid the need for legal action in this matter. (Max Boxing)
UFC to Offer UFC 113 PPV to FLO TV Mobile Devices
Purchase UFC Machida vs. Shogun 2 for $44.99. Watch the action live May 8 on your FLO TV Personal Television or FLO TV Auto Entertainment System. Tune in starting at 6:30pm pst. Don’t miss light heavyweight champion Lyoto ‘The Dragon’ Machida and challenger Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua settle the score. (FLO TV)
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Twitter Updates from UFC and FLO TV:
@UFC : Have you guys seen FLO TV? Live programming on a TV the size of an iPhone. Watch UFC 113 on the go Saturday night! http://www.flo.tv/
@FLOTV : The UFC promo channel airs this week on FLO TV. MMA fans can check out previews for upcoming UFC 113 : Machida vs. Shogun 2. #ufc
M-1 Global, Strikeforce come to terms; Emelianenko vs. Werdum set for June 26
After months of anticipation, the world’s No. 1 heavyweight and pound-for-pound Mixed Martial Arts (MMA) fighter, Fedor “The Last Emperor” Emelianenko (31-1), will make his eagerly awaited return to the cage to face two-time Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu world champion and top-ranked superstar Fabricio “Vai Cavalo” Werdum (13-4) in a STRIKEFORCE and M-1 GLOBAL co-promoted event at HP Pavilion in San Jose, Calif. on Saturday, June 26, live on SHOWTIME® at 10 p.m. ET/PT (delayed on the West Coast).
The Fedor-Werdum match will headline an event which will feature up to five televised fights on SHOWTIME and several non-televised undercard bouts that will be announced in the coming weeks.
A special pre-sale ticket purchase opportunity for the event will take place for “STRIKEFORCE Insider” e-newsletter subscribers (http://strikeforce.com/insider.html) from 10 a.m. PT Monday, May 10, until 10 p.m. PT on Thursday, May 13. Insiders will receive an e-newsletter with the pre-sale code.
Tickets go on sale to the general public at 10 a.m. PT on Friday, May 14, at the HP Pavilion box office, all Ticketmaster locations (800) 745-3000, Ticketmaster online (www.ticketmaster.com) as well as www.strikeforce.com. For more information, please also visit www.M-1GLOBAL.com.
For M-1 GLOBAL’s Fedor, it is a means of gaining revenge three and a half years after the 32-year-old Werdum defeated Fedor’s brother Aleksander Emelianenko, via submission (arm triangle choke) in the first round (3:24) of a bout in Rotterdam, Holland, on Nov. 12, 2006. (PRESS RELEASE)
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MMAPayout Rumored 6/26 Strikeforce – Fedor vs Werdum Event:
Fedor Emelienenko (31-1) vs Fabricio Werdum (13-4)
Cung Le (6-1) vs Scott Smith (17-6)
Cristiane “Cyborg” Santos (9-1) vs TBA
Luke Rockhold (7-1) vs TBA
Zuffa Files Suit for ‘The Ultimate Fighter’ Domain Name TV census ad
Dana White has made it no secret over the past several months that the UFC intends to use “The Ultimate Fighter” series and online distribution to fuel the growth of the UFC’s brand around the globe.
“We’re trying to get these television deals in all these countries, major TV deals exposing the fans to it, then you bring a live event to those places,” White said at a recent news conference. “Then the virus spreads and people start training at it, trying to make a living at it, eventually becoming professional athletes. That’s what we’re going to do over the next 10 years.”
The recent acquisition of UltimateFighter.com and the legal efforts to obtain TheUltimateFighter.com appear to be part of the UFC’s plan for international growth.
Anton Resnick, the domain name’s registrant, expressed complete surprise that a suit had been filed when contacted by Sherdog.com.
“I’m not at all aware of the suit,” said Resnick. (Sherdog) … (MMAPayout Perspective)
“TUF Canada” targeted for 2011; UFC seeks TV deals in China, India, South Korea
In fact, White said an international version of “The Ultimate Fighter” may focus on Canadian athletes as soon as 2011, and UFC co-owner Lorenzo Fertitta will soon set out across the globe with the intention of netting TV deals in China, India and South Korea.
“Our model is you go in with television – the right television – and then you bring the live event,” White told MMAjunkie.com (www.mmajunkie.com). “After this fight, Lorenzo is going to get on a plane, and he’s going to be gone for 14 days. He’s going to China, India and South Korea. Those are the three countries we’re focused on next. (MMAJunkie)
QUICK HITS
- Alvarez Subs Neer, Curran Decisions Huerta (Sherdog)
- Bellator 17 recap: Curran shocks Huerta, meets Imada in lightweight final (MMAJunkie)
- Strikeforce champ Cristiane “Cyborg” moved to June 26 “Fedor vs. Werdum” event (MMAJunkie)
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Spike TV’s “The Ultimate Fighter 11″ draws 1.7 million viewers for episode No. 6 (MMAJunkie)
- Dana White: UFC 113′s Paul Daley vs. Josh Koscheck winner gets title shot (MMAJunkie)
- Kevin Randleman good to go for May 15 Strikeforce fight with Roger Gracie (MMAJunkie)
- PVT Mag Analyzes Anderson Silva (Sherdog)
- Bellator Books Fujii for June 10 Event (Sherdog)
- Dana White Discusses His Relationship With Machida, Kimbo Slice’s Future (MMAFighting)
- DREAM EP Keiichi Sasahara on Shinya Aoki, the Cage and Future of DREAM (MMAFighting)
- BELLATOR ADDS ULYSSES GOMEZ TO 135 LBS TOURNEY (MMAWeekly)
- UFC 113 PREFIGHT PRESS CONFERENCE PHOTOS (MMAWeekly)
- MMA Moms, Part I: The women behind the fighters (Yahoo! Sports)
- UFC 113 Pre-Fight Press Conference Highlights (Heavy)
- Win VIP Tickets To Strikeforce With Backstage Fighter Meet And Greet (Heavy)
TV LISTINGS
- HDNet Fights Vault: Head Kick KO’s at 8 PM ET on HDNet (05/07/10)
- Fighting Words with Mike Straka (feat. John McCarthy) at 8:30 PM ET on HDNet (05/07/10)
- InsideMMA (Stephen Bonnar, Jens Pulver, Reed Harris) at 9 PM ET on HDNet(05/07/10)
- HDNet Fights: MFC Vindication at 10 PM ET on HDNet (05/07/10)
- UFC 113 : Machida vs Shogun 2 at 10 PM ET on PPV (05/08/10)
UPCOMING EVENTS
- HDNet Fights: MFC Vindication at 10 PM ET on HDNet (05/07/10)
- UFC 113 : Machida vs Shogun 2 at 10 PM ET on PPV (05/08/10)
- Bellator Fighting Championships XVIII at 7:30 PM ET on FSN(05/13/10)
- Strikeforce St. Louis: Overeem vs Rogers at 10 PM ET/PT on Showtime(05/15/10)
- Bellator Fighting Championships XIX at 7:30 PM ET on FSN(05/20/10)
- UFC 114 : Rampage vs Evans at 10 PM ET on PPV (05/29/10)
Countdown to UFC 113: 512,000 Viewers
May 3, 2010
MMAPayout.com has learned that the debut of Spike’s Countdown to UFC 113 drew an average audience of 512,000 in the late time slot (11 PM ET/PT) on Thursday night. It’s a respectable number given when it was shown (especially considering it’s still a week+ out from the fight).
We’ll wait to see the marketing push during fight week and the eventual gate interest, but given the fact the main event is a rematch borne of controversy and Kimbo Slice is on the card, it should sell pretty well. I think it’ll beat UFC 104′s ~500k and am leaning towards 550-600k.
Alienware to Sponsor Mitrione, Other Suckerpunch Fighters
April 29, 2010
Damon Martin of MMAWeekly has the latest scoop on yet another significant corporate sponsor entering the MMA fold. Dell Computers subsidiary Alienware will sponsor fighters managed by Suckerpunch Entertainment including Matt Mitrione (UFC 113), Amir Sadollah, Pat Berry, and others.
The deal with Alienware, a subsidiary of Dell Computers, will begin immediately. It will feature sponsorship of upcoming UFC 113 fighter Matt Mitrione, who will face Kimbo Slice on the main card of the show in Montreal on May 8.
In 2006, Dell Computers was recognized as the 25th largest corporation by Fortune 500. They’ve continued to grow in the computer industry every year since that time. Alienware, which was purchased by Dell in 2006, features components used in Dell Computers for high tech gaming.
The deal will coincide with Suckerpunch’s roster of fighters, which includes UFC stars like Amir Sadollah and Pat Barry as well as WEC fighter and legendary computer gamer Jens Pulver.
Brian Butler, president of Suckerpunch Entertainment, says the deal to get Alienware on board was a long process, but the expansion of major corporate sponsors into MMA is worth the work.
Payout Perspective:
It’s not Dell, but it is something. And certainly, in terms of fit between the brand and property, Alienware aligns pretty well with the sport of MMA. Each caters to the 18-34 demographic and the sport of MMA is making substantial in-roads with the gaming community (which is obviously Alienware’s core target market).
It’ll be interesting to see what Alienware does to further activate around these sponsorships; or whether they’re simply testing the waters from an awareness generation standpoint and learning more about the industry as they go.
Keep your eye on this one.
Integrated Marketing: Building the Next UFC 100
April 5, 2010
UFC 100 remains the most successful event in UFC history. The show sold over 1.62 million buys in North America and did a live gate of $5.1 million in the middle of what many financial pundits described as the worst recession in twenty years. Impressive, indeed.
However, since the Summer of 2009, the UFC hasn’t come close to repeating the PPV or live gate results enjoyed at UFC 100. Which begs the question: what exactly will it take to create another UFC 100? The answer: the same sort of massive integrated marketing effort that was employed the first time around.
In building UFC 100, the company established a strong foundation of interest and awareness with a solid product offering in the first half of the year – a series of very strong PPV cards built upon brilliant matchmaking and headline fights. Those PPV cards were then supplemented with a variety of free programming on the cable network Spike TV, a UFC video game in May, a superb marketing campaign, and an all-out PR blitz which fostered an unprecedented amount of media coverage.
The following is a summary of the integrated marketing pieces the UFC used to drive interest and awareness in the overall UFC brand, as well as direct interest in UFC 100:
PPV Fight Cards:
- UFC 91 (15/11/08): Couture vs. Lesnar, 900,000 buys
- UFC 92 (29/12/08): Griffin vs. Evans, 1,050,000 buys
- UFC 94: (31/1/09): St-Pierre vs. Penn II, 920,000 buys
- UFC 97: (18/4/09): Silva vs. Leites, 650,000 buys
- UFC 98: (23/05/09): Evans vs. Machida, 635,000 buys
All were exceptionally strong cards that compared very favorably to the UFC’s average event buyrate of 520,000 over the previous three years. By July, the UFC was up 62% year-to-date from 2008 in its buyrate total (it would end the year having increased total PPV sales by 30%).
Free Spike TV Content:
The UFC supplemented its tremendous PPV cards with a laundry list of free programming that gave MMA fans all they could watch; new and old.
In fact, a major component of the success of these PPV cards was the free corollary content that pushed viewers to the PPV by featuring behind the scenes footage of the fighters in their daily lives, training for fights. Countdown to UFC and UFC Primetime are the two shows designed to mimic HBO’s popular 24/7 series.
The Video Game, UFC Undisputed 2009:
The UFC partnered with esteemed action video game producer, THQ, to introduce its first video game in seven years with the release of UFC Undisputed 2009 for the Xbox 360 and PS3 on May 16th. The game sold 1.5 million copies in its first month and 3.5 million copies by December 2009.
UFC Undisputed 2009 served as a major cog in the UFC’s promotional wheel because it generated interest and awareness in millions of gamers by teaching them the sport and helping to familiarize them with the stars. These gamers, most aged 18-34, were all in the UFC’s demographic wheelhouse.
Moreover, at the time of the game’s release, the UFC was in the midst of trying to promote its “biggest event ever,” and received a big boost from THQ’s own advertising of the video game; which essentially doubled as UFC promotion.
Social Media Marketing:
There are few sports leagues in the world that use social media more effectively than the UFC; Twitter, Facebook, and Youtube have all become powerful tools for promoting the brand and its fighters.
The UFC’s President, Dana White, used Twitter to announce fights, contests, and to give away tickets. Not surprisingly, his account surpassed one million followers by June of 2009. His following on Youtube is no less impressive as his video logs – 8-10 minute video clips that capture his daily routine in the days leading up to an event – often garner more than 1 million views each.
The social media efforts only added to the regular marketing methods such as commercial spots on television programs with similar demographics, print ads in magazines such as SI and SI Swimsuit, and mega billboards in high traffic metropolitan areas throughout the United States.
PR Blitz:
Perhaps the strongest competency of the UFC is its public relations department; the organization truly gets it where PR is concerned, and it played as big a role in building the UFC 100 weekend as it did in building the UFC brand that we know today.
The UFC managed to cultivate major and unprecedented coverage of its events throughout the early part of 2009, including frequent ESPN coverage (SC, PTI, and ESPN Magazine, and ESPN’s various local radio stations) and USA Today. It seemed like Dana White and many of the fighters were in the news every two or three days; even with many traditional print outlets like the NY Times, LA Times, and Wall Street Journal.
The PR team was very effective at getting word to the press, and then having the press disseminate its message; this added another layer of legitimacy to the UFC and its 100th event. Perhaps most telling was that UFC 100 had more than 30 traditional outlet reporters in press row for the fight; compared to the average of 5 or 10 for any given regular fight.
UFC 100 Weekend:
The UFC also put together a fight card worthy of its centennial show by featuring its two brightest stars: Brock Lesnar and George St-Pierre. Both had worked to headline massive PPVs in the previous six months and were generating substantial interest online (google searches, UFC web hits, etc.)
The UFC also held its First Annual UFC Expo during UFC 100 weekend to further motivate UFC fans to make the trip down to Vegas for the centennial show. The Expo was billed as a celebration of MMA; and featured a tradeshow, world-class jiu-jitsu competitions, and a chance for fans to interact with the brand and its personalities.
Conclusion
The UFC didn’t just put a couple of great fighters on the card and hope that its centennial show would do the rest; the company actively utilized every inch of its marketing mix capacity to push this fight. They used creative corollary television programming, a superb PR blitz, social networking sites that were received quite well by its young audience, and a video game, all to generate the perfect storm of buzz for the event. Integrated marketing at its best.
Building the Next UFC 100
Can the UFC once again achieve the same sort of success it enjoyed with UFC 100? Absolutely.
If you look closely, you can see the same sort of elements aligning in the UFC’s marketing mix for UFC 116 that were present during the build to UFC 100. Brock Lesnar will once again be the catalyst, which isn’t surprising because his polarizing nature is exactly the type of casual draw that a massive integrated marketing effort can feed on. But, the event will also benefit from a series of strong fight cards have been put into place:
- UFC 111: St-Pierre vs. Hardy, Carwin vs. Mir
- UFC 112: Silva vs. Maia, Penn vs. Edgar
- UFC 113: Machida vs. Rua II, Koscheck vs. Daley, and Kimbo
- UFC 114: Evans vs. Jackson, Nogueira vs. Griffin (Memorial Day Weekend and 2nd Annual UFC Expo)
- UFC 115: Liddell vs. Ortiz, Franklin vs. Couture (basically legend’s night)
The UFC will supplement these cards with a host of free content like TUF 11, Countdown to UFC, and perhaps even another UFC Primetime (Lesnar vs. Carwin, anyone?). The organization will also release the newest version of the video game on May 25th; again, strongly targeting its male 18-34 year-old demographic.
Where the media is concerned, UFC 116 looks to also benefit from more unprecedented coverage. MMA Live will move to ESPN 2 and TSN during the month of May on a trial basis – ESPN will also air two live pre-shows prior to UFC 113 and 114 – and I’m willing to bet that agreement will at least be extended through July and UFC 116, if not indefinitely. The network will undoubtedly want to cover Lesnar’s return to the octagon.
More press coverage will follow in the footsteps of ESPN and USA Today, because of the aforementioned momentum generated by numerous events and content. The organization’s rapid global expansion and fight for legalization in key regions will also benefit UFC 116. New and developing markets like Philadelphia, Vancouver, and Boston will perhaps show more interest than even what UFC 100 was able to generate – regions like New York and Ontario will also be watching closely.
Note that I haven’t even got into what the UFC will likely do or spend on the marketing side of things in the lead-up to this event.
I think you all get the point: UFC 116 has a legitimate shot to leverage a strong series of PPV events, another video game, unprecedented media coverage, and numerous fight story lines to make this event the biggest or second biggest event in UFC history.
TUF 11 Debut: 1.5HH Rating
April 2, 2010
MMAPayout.com has learned that Wednesday’s debut episode of The Ultimate Fighter 11 earned a 1.5 HH rating with an average audience of 1.9 million viewers on Spike TV. The debut was the #2 rated program in the country amongst the M18-34 (2.1) and M18-49 (1.9).
Payout Perspective:
If you recall, the debut of TUF 10 earned a 2.9HH with a 5.3 in the M18-34 and 4.3 in the M18-49. Thus the Kimbo Effect is in full effect. It remains to be seen whether the ratings will dip down to the 1.0 mark that TUF 9 experienced throughout much of the season, but it probably wouldn’t surprise anyone.
The promised format “change” for this season was more of a slight tweak, and won’t do much to add any sort of drama or consistent interest boost to the show. However, it does appear as though Zuffa has changed its promotional strategy with regard to the show: mum’s the word where TUF is concerned (that shouldn’t have rhymed). Dana, Tito, and Chuck have all be uncharacteristically quiet when it comes to talking about the show; other than to say, of course, “it’s (really) crazy!!”
I’m skeptical as to whether that approach will work, and ultimately I’m still an advocate for a total overhaul of the show. However, it seems as though Dana and Zuffa are intent to ride TUF into new markets, which might make them reluctant to make any major changes now.
Strikeforce Challengers 7 Wrap-Up
March 31, 2010
The Staff at MMAJunkie are reporting that Strikeforce Challengers 7 drew 4,963 to the Save Mart Center in Fresno, California last Friday, which was good for a live gate of $109,222.
“Strikeforce Challengers VII: Johnson vs. Mahe” was the second 2010 edition of the organization’s prospects-based events series.
The attendance figures mark a sharp increase for the previous edition of Strikeforce Challengers, held Feb. 26 in San Jose, Calif. That show drew 2,318 attendees for a live gate of $86,440.
The figures for “Johnson vs. Mahe” represent an increase of an astounding 114 percent in attendance, as well as a 26 percent increase in gate revenue from “Strikeforce Challengers VI: Kaufman vs. Hashi.”
MMAJunkie also reported the event garned a very solid 1.0 rating with an average audience of 316,000 viewers – a 111% increase over the previous Challenger show. However, it should be noted that the event likely benefited greatly from Showtime’s free trial weekend where the premium channel was available to all digital cable and satellite subscribers.
The Staff at MMAWeekly acquired the fighter paydays from the California State Athletic Commission that totaled $73,000.
-Lavar Johnson $16,000 (includes $8,000 win bonus) def. Lolohea Mahe $3,000
-Ron “Abongo” Humphrey $7,000 (includes $3,500 win bonus) def. George Bush III $5,000
-Andre Galvao $10,000 def. Luke Stewart $5,000
-Miesha Tate: $5,000 (includes $2,000 win bonus) def. Zoila Frausto: $3,000
-Justin Wilcox: $12,000 (includes $6,000 win bonus) def. Shamar Bailey: $4,000
-Daniel Cormier: $500 def. John Devine: $2,500STRIKEFORCE CHALLENGERS 7 DISCLOSED FIGHTER PAYROLL: $73,000
Payout Perspective:
The Strikeforce Challengers 7 event held in the Save Mart Center in Fresno, California turned out to be a successful event for Strikeforce. Coming into the event, I was unusually noticing a healthy amount of traffic for the event, which is rare for a Strikeforce Challengers event. There were 4 factors that played a huge role in the success of this event:
- Lavar Johnson’s Story Line – Coming back after being wounded from a gun shot was definitely a story getting a fairly good amount of press. The Fresno crowd was definitely behind Johnson in his comeback fight after almost losing his life.
- Miesha Tate vs Zoila Frausto Storyline – There was a legitimate storyline between these two fighters even before the bout was booked. Zoila wanted to fight Miesha and said some words, which then were addressed by Miesha. This back and forth spilled over to the internet, interviews, and chat rooms. Not only the storyline, but MMA fans have taken a liking to Tate, and may be the 3rd most marketable fighter Strikeforce has after Gina Carano and Cyborg Santos.
- Solid Matchmaking – Strikeforce booked Johnson, Tate, Galvao, Stewart, Cormier , Humphrey, Wilcox, and Bailey. All are considered young prospects in MMA and were all matched up in competitive matches coming into the event. A good number of fans considered this one of the better Strikeforce Challenger events.
- Showtime Advertising Free Preview Weekend – Showtime and Strikeforce did a great job at letting MMA fans know that this weekend everyone would get the chance to watch the Strikeforce Challengers event along with the Super 6 Boxing tournament bout between Dirrell and Abraham event for free. The free Showtime weekend exposed a good amount of combat sport fans to tune in on Friday, which was almost treated as the appetizer to a great combat sports weekend. Through the free weekend promotion, Showtime’s reach jumped from around 12-18 million homes to 54 million.
Numbers in Perspective:
Now, there is no denying the fact that the 316,000 viewers had a lot to do with the free weekend preview, but lets take a closer look. The Challengers 6 event, which was headlined by Kaufman vs Hashi for the 135 lbs Women’s Strikeforce belt, and which did not benefit from a free-preview weekend garnered 150K viewers, peaking at 189K. These numbers were substantially higher than the usual numbers Challenger events get, which are estimated to be around 100K viewers. For the sake of contrast, lets take a look at other Strikeforce ratings:
- Strikeforce Challengers 7 – 316K viewers
- Strikeforce: Lawler vs Shields – 275K viewers
- Strikeforce: Le vs Smith – 341K viewers
Here are the ratings for the weekend, which pinned the UFC, HBO Boxing, and Showtime Boxing head to head:
- UFC 111 Prelim’s on Spike – 1.2 Million viewers
- Showtime Boxing (Dirrell vs Abraham) – 736K viewers
- HBO Boxing (Maidana vs Cayo) – 650K Viewers
After comparing these numbers, its obvious to see that Showtime benefited greatly due to the free-preview by getting good ratings for the Strikeforce Challengers show on Friday and the Super Six boxing bout on Saturday, beating out HBO boxing . One thing we will keep our eyes on is the Strikeforce viewership numbers, which appear to be rising ever since the November 7th Strikeforce: Fedor vs Rogers CBS event. In their latest big Showtime event, Strikeforce Miami (Diaz, Walker, Lashley) garnered 517K viewers, which just finished behind Kimbo vs Tank (522K viewers) and the MMA ratings leader event at Showtime, Gina Carano vs Cyborg Santos (576K viewers).
