UFC 117: Payout Perspective
August 9, 2010
Welcome to another edition of Payout Perspective! This week we’ll be taking a look at UFC 117: Silva vs. Sonnen, which was held Saturday, August 7 from the Oracle Arena in Oakland, California. The stacked event not only featured Silva vs. Sonnen, but Fitch vs. Alves, dos Santos vs. Nelson, and Hughes vs. Almeida.
Silva pulls off triangle in final minutes, defeats Sonnen
Anderson Silva was dominated by Chael Sonnen for much of their 23 minute fight on Saturday, but it was ultimately the last 2 minutes that proved most pivotal as Silva slipped on the triangle and then pulled down on an arm to secure a quick tap.
I try not to indulge in senseless hyperbole, so I’ll just call it an unbelievable comeback. Silva proved his mettle in this fight: getting beat on for four rounds and still having both the capacity and presence of mind to look for the late submission. I’m not sure he won himself a ton of new fans – if anything, probably now more people than ever believe he’s vulnerable – but he did earn back some respect after previous performances.
There’s a debate raging as to whether Sonnen should receive an instant rematch. I’ve heard good arguments on both sides. The pro-rematch crowd argues that an instant rematch needs to happen as soon as possible, because it’s just too good of a business opportunity to risk by delaying. Silva hasn’t been a tremendous draw for the UFC (he averages just 455,000 PPV buys), but a rematch with Sonnen would sell huge. If the UFC decides to book something else, it could lose the appeal and relevance of an immediate rematch. However, the counter argument to a Silva-Sonnen instant rematch is also strong: Silva won without the reffing or judging controversy that usually demands an instant rematch; plus, the UFC likely does not want to set a precedent for handing out instant rematches every time a contender loses a close fight.
My own opinion is that the UFC cannot afford to pass up an immediate Silva-Sonnen rematch for the following reasons:
- Ultimately this business is about putting on fights that people want to see – this is one of them.
- The fight would not require a substantial co-main attraction, which frees up assets for Joe Silva to use to reinforce other cards.
- The winner is surely to emerge with at least a short-term popularity spike that carries forward into other bouts.
- The UFC middleweight division could actually use an extra six months to sort itself out: let Vitor fight the winner of Marquardt vs. Palhares or Bisping vs. Akiyama.
Fitch victorious, but no guarantee of next title shot
Jon Fitch was once again victorious in the Octagon, racking up his fifth win in a row, but the fight also marked the 8th time in a row that he’s gone to a decision. Dana White had commented before the fight that the winner of Fitch vs. Alves would receive a shot at the winner of St-Pierre vs. Koscheck, but all bets were off when Alves came in over weight and even more so when Fitch failed to finish against Alves.
Fitch was good, but not so good that the UFC can’t deny him an immediate shot in favor of someone like Jake Shields. It’s hard to fathom that Joe Silva and the UFC would book St-Pierre in back-to-back title bout rematches with guys he’s already trounced unless they had no other real alternative. The winner of Shields-Kampman could provide that alternative.
dos Santos defeats Nelson, earns shot at winner of Lesnar-Velasquez
Junior dos Santos demonstrated his superb stand-up in the victory over Nelson. It’s difficult to envision another heavyweight being able to match dos Santos on his feet. The fact that he did not knock Nelson out is more a testament to Nelson’s chin and heart than it is to dos Santos’ power. Dos Santos will now face the winner of Lesnar-Velasquez some time in the New Year.
The UFC has done a great job of organizing its heavyweight division and producing never-before-seen depth from the big men. If Lesnar gets through Velasquez and dos Santos, he’ll truly be the top heavyweight in the world. Hopefully that’s something the organization can replicate in the lightweight and middleweight divisions – both of which are kind of in disarray at the moment.
UFC revamps website
MMAPayout.com covered the unveiling of the UFC’s re-designed website last week. After playing around with things for a few days it’s become clear that there are still a few kinks to be worked out functionally. It remains, however, a less cluttered environment than before – one which provides a lot more substance.
Sponsorship Watch
The UFC and Edge Shave Gel ran a contest a few months ago in which the bar code from purchased Edge containers could be used to obtain a free three-month subscription to the UFC Vault. It was good activation for Edge, but something that probably wasn’t advertised as much as it could have been. I’ve been happy to learn over the last month that the Vault subscription is more valuable than access to a select number of fights relevant to the up-coming card; subscribers also have access to recent prelim fights in the days immediately following a UFC event.
The Tequila Cazadores spirit award went to Clay Guida. The UFC is slowly starting to do more with this award, but I really think it’s missing something on the PR end by not getting the story out a little better. It’s got good cause marketing potential; and, with Clay Guida as the most recent recipient, this last one definitely could have had some legs.
I found it interesting that Tequila Cazadores – the presenting sponsor of UFC 117 – had graphics posted during each between-round replay, yet the odd post-fight replay was still brought to us by Bud Light. I wonder if this was a mistake or if Bud Light owns the post-fight replay (finishing sequence) no matter the card.
The Blue Book has been updated.
UFC’s Zelaznik on International Business
July 20, 2010
Ben Fowlkes of MMA Fighting has posted an interesting interview with the UFC’s Managing Director in the U.K., Marshall Zelaznik, that broaches a variety of subjects including the UFC’s latest absence from the U.K. market.
The U.K. market seemed like a big deal to the UFC when it first began expanding internationally, but so far in 2010 you’ve been to places like Australia and Abu Dhabi, but no U.K. shows. Do you worry that the U.K. fans will feel like they’ve been ignored as the UFC focuses on the rest of the world?
I think that if anyone has that impression, when you look objectively at how we haven’t been here in over a year, you can understand how someone might feel that way. But no one is ignoring the U.K. It’s just an effect of trying to be everywhere at one time. And just the way schedules work out, we probably would have been back in the U.K. earlier, but the TV dates we commit to and how we start working out our calendars, with the lack of availability of venues in the U.K., it just worked out this way.
We would have liked to have been in the U.K. before the summer, but it just didn’t work out with the schedules and the availability. But the offices here in the U.K., there are ten of us who live and breathe the U.K. and we’re always focused on it, so if people hear that they should know that no one is thinking of them as second-class citizens.
Payout Perspective:
It remains to be seen exactly what UFC 120 is going to look like, but it appears as though the UFC will rely on a bevy of British fighters to anchor yet another UK card without a title fight. The UK has not hosted a title bout since January 2008 when BJ Penn defeated Joe Stevenson at UFC 80.
The UFC cannot afford to bring a title fight to the UK every time it visits, but it must be careful not to treat the market as an after-thought. The company has devoted a lot of time and money into developing the UK and it must continue to serve the fan base with appealing fights with beyond the likes of British fighters like Bisping and Hardy or UFC legends like Matt Hughes and Randy Couture.
I tend to sympathize with Zelaznik and the UFC in regards to scheduling and timing, because if a few fights go the other way, they’re probably bringing two title fights to the UK in 2010. Just think about what could have happened had Bisping won at UFC 100, Hardy won at UFC 111, or the UFC had not suffered a host of injuries near the end of 2009 that put pressure on the company to re-establish some momentum in North America in 2010.
Yet, I also tend to think this entire situation exemplifies why rapid expansion is so difficult: the UFC has a limited number of resources and can’t possibly give each market the attention it deserves. The fans in the UK want a title fight, but so do the fans in Canada, Germany, Australia, and every other place the UFC visits.
I understand the allure of big markets like China and India, but the UFC can only move so quickly. It would be foolhardy to expect otherwise.
No More Interim Belts
July 7, 2010
John Morgan of MMAJunkie writes that Lyoto Machida would like to fight Rashad Evans for an interim light heavyweight title in lieu of the knee injury that has sidelined champion Mauricio Rua until March.
“Honestly, we’d like to fight ‘Shogun,’” Machida’s manager, Ed Soares, today told MMAjunkie.com Radio. “Now it’s 1-1. It’s even. Let’s do this rubber match. Let’s figure this out. Granted, he won by decision and Lyoto won decisively, but anyone can get caught in this sport. He went in for the kill, and unfortunately, he got caught.
“Since ‘Shogun’ is out – they’re saying until March – personally, when there’s an injured champion, I would love to see maybe a Rashad-Lyoto match for the interim title. I think that would be something that would be cool, and the winner of that would get to fight ‘Shogun’ when he’s all healed up in the spring of next year.”
The move certainly wouldn’t be without precedent. The UFC recently instituted a similar program when the future of heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar was uncertain. While Rua’s injured knee is reportedly healing quickly, the Brazilian’s history of issues with the joint does leave a small cause for concern.
Payout Perspective:
The use of an interim belt should be reserved for the utmost rare of circumstances in which the indefinite or prolonged injury of a champion threatens to put a division on hold for 12+ months. It’s an emergency tool and a compromise; one meant to keep the division going, but respect the previous achievements of the existing champion. An interim belt should not be used every time a champion gets hurt and misses one fight.
Mauricio Rua will return in March. He’s the champion. There’s no need for an interim belt.
In most cases, with the exception of their proper use, interim belts only serve to create confusion amongst the fan base and devalue the standing of the actual championship. The belt is put up for grabs so many different times and between so many different contenders that it loses its meaning and significance. Look no further than the recent turmoil within the heavyweight division (edited):
- UFC 81: Tim Sylvia fights Antonio Nogueira for the interim belt during Randy’s dispute
- UFC 91: Randy Couture returns to defend his belt against Brock Lesnar.
- UFC 92: Antonio Nogeuira and Frank Mir fight for the interim belt.
- UFC 100: Brock Lesnar defeats Frank Mir in a unification match.
- UFC 111: Shane Carwin defeats Frank Mir for the interim belt.
- UFC 116: Brock Lesnar defeats Shane Carwin in a unification bout.
Was all that really necessary?
The use of the interim title during the Couture contract dispute was warranted, but in the case of Lesnar’s absence, he was sick by late October and recovering by the middle of December. There wasn’t really a need for an interim title match in March (a fight that would have sold just fine as a contenders bout instead of a interim title bout).
The UFC doesn’t need any more of these interim title bouts. All they do is create confusion and devalue the championship as a whole.
Strikeforce Fedor vs Werdum: Payout Perspective
June 30, 2010
Welcome to another edition of Payout Perspective! This week we’ll be taking a look at Fedor’s Strikeforce debut on Showtime, titled “Fedor vs Werdum”, which took place in the HP Pavilion in San Jose, CA. The event featured 4 fights (1 title fight): Fedor Emelianenko vs. Fabricio Werdum, Cung Le vs. Scott Smith, Cris Cyborg (champ) vs Jan Finney at 145 lbs, and Josh Thomson vs. Pat Healy.
Fedor loses for first time in nearly a decade
I will provide a quote from Kelsey’s previous post “Fedor Loss Not the End of the World”:
He lost. He’s not the invincible machine that everyone thought. He’s human.
Is that not the beauty of this sport? Mixed martial arts has a way of mimicking the trials and tribulations of life in a manner that few sporting events can. The moment that Fedor decided to become more aggressive is the moment that he became perilously vulnerable. How often is that not the case in real life?
Forget the hyperbole you’re hearing. This is not the end of the world. Fedor lost, but losses happen – to everyone – in life and in sport. It’s the ability of someone to bounce back that really matters, and Fedor will have his opportunity.
That is why I’m inclined to think the situation is still very workable for Strikeforce. There was obviously interest in Fedor fighting Overeem, but there’s now probably even greater interest in Fedor fighting Werdum in an immediate rematch. Why? The fans will want to see whether Fedor’s loss was an aberration or a true representation of his fighting ability.
The key for Strikeforce here is to turn this situation into a positive. Before Fedor vs Werdum took place, everyone assumed that Werdum was nothing but a speed-bump to a potential mega-fight between Fedor and Alistair Overeem. Since Fedor lost, those plans have gone out the window, Werdum vs Overeem is the match-up that makes sense.
Well, not so fast. Everyone is talking about how shocking it was to see Fedor lose his first fight in a decade, specially in the manner that it did. The buzz around this weekends event is high and people want to see the rematch to see if it was a “fluke”. Instead of having just one fight to look forward to, it’s Strikeforce’s job now to market this rematch between Fedor and Werdum as “the most anticipated rematch in the history of MMA”. Putting on this fight on PPV or on CBS and having the winner face the Strikeforce Champ (in a perfect world scenario) is obviously the way to go here.
Fedor’s Fall Return?
I will again provide a quote from Kelsey:
The question is not, will Fedor be back or will the fans be interested, but what will Strikeforce do to leverage Fedor’s next, and potentially last, fight to improve the organization? The company cannot afford to have this fight accomplish nothing; to have this fight become another one-off that leads to zero gain in terms of awareness, interest, and product consumption. If Strikeforce is going to leverage Fedor in any way, the preparation has to start now.
The first step is to address the Strikeforce roster. The company has been working to sign some really great talent, but none of them have really been given the opportunity to fight on the big stage. If Fedor is gone after this next fight (worst case scenario), then who fills the void? The organization can’t ride UFC and Pride retreads into the limelight.
An obvious solution is to devote more time to showcasing homegrown or emerging talent. The forthcoming middleweight tournament is a perfect avenue to do so, but what beyond that is my question. There needs to be some sort of matchmaking structure and hierarchy that pushes these young guys up the ladder and into more prominent roles within each division.
Strikeforce has the roster to create stars, the problem is their inability to do so through Showtime and CBS so far. By default, Fabricio Werdum will now and forever be known as the first guy to really defeat Fedor. Strikeforce has to make a strong push using this angle for the rematch. Fedor’s sell will be quite easy, and should capture everyone’s attention. Will the greatest HW of all time be able to regain his old form or are his prime years behind him? That angle should be good enough to have a successful show whether they have it on CBS or on PPV, that is as long is they also add some buzz creators on there like a Gina or Walker.
Another great boost for a fall event is the release of EA Sports MMA. The release of the game should give an added boost to the brand and it’s fighters. Creating buzz between both events and synergy for a big fall event. The UFC has done this twice now with the release of UFC Undisputed 2009 last year and around the Rashad Evans vs Rampage Jackson fight this year, both considered very successful shows.
What to make of the Strikeforce HW division
If Strikeforce plays their cards right, they can take Overeem (Strikeforce Champ), Werdum (who now has victories against Overeem and Fedor), and Fedor (waiting to avenge his loss and be crown the best HW in MMA again) and build these fighters up to have huge fights amongst each other. What about the rest of the HW division you ask? Well, take a look at this. Antonio Silva lost a heart breaker to Werdum, so one more solid victory can definitely put him on the driver seat for a title match.
Recently signed HW Sergei Kharitonov has victories over both Overeem and Werdum (you couldn’t write a better storyline for an instant contender), and others like Arlovski and Brett Rogers have some recognition but need to be built back up. While the top of the division unfolds, HW prospects like Daniel Cormier, Shane Del Rosario and Lavar Johnson should use this time to further develop into future contenders. The wild card in the division are the likes of Bobby Lashley and Herschel Walker, who will give whatever event they participate in a boost of interest to the casual fan and mainstream.
Questions that still linger
Quoting Kelsey again:
The other problem is PR. I’ve harped on it before, and I’ll do it again: there’s no consistent information flow between the organization and the fan base. The information gaps might be excusable if Strikeforce were only running four shows a year, but it’s running at least one show per month. Where is the content? This absolutely HAS to change. Strikeforce needs to be communicating with its fans, telling stories and driving interest in its product.
The Challengers Series is just sitting there for all intents and purposes. With the exception of last week, the series has yet to really gain any sort of traction with the fans, the media, or even Strikeforce itself. The organization should be using these monthly events as a way to develop a consistent relationship with the fans.
I think a lot of the dissatisfaction towards Strikeforce has been their lack of consistency and communication to both the media and fans. There needs to be some sort of medium other than fight night for fans to care about the fighters and promotion. UFC does a great job at doing this through Spike TV programming (TUF, Unleashed, Prime Time specials, etc) and social media, utilizing it for updates and one-on-one interaction with fans using websites such as Twitter and Facebook. Giving the fans and media a sense of acknowledgment and importance really goes a long way to creating a dedicated fan-base, which will ultimately drive up the brand and success.
***
Sponsorship watch
It was a really interesting night on the sponsorship side, specifically compared to their Strikeforce Los Angeles show.
EA Sports MMA and GoDaddy.com continued to be major sponsors to Strikeforce along with now veterans Full Tilt Poker and Rockstar Energy Drinks. The new kids on the block were Clinch Gear and GameFly (who purchased commercial slots in the Nashville CBS show earlier this year) on the mat.
If you recall from Kelsey’s post, Tapout was supposed to sponsor Fedor for the event but the deal was nixed last minute due to pressure being placed by the UFC to ban them from the Octogon if they went ahead with the sponsor. Needless to say, Fedor and M-1 were not to pleased with the situation, but Clinch Gear picked up where Tapout left off and sponsored Fedor for the event. Due to this last minute ordeal, Clinch Gear’s role in the event increased significantly. A source at the event told met that Clinch Gear did a great job selling their gear because it seemed like every other fan was sporting a Fedor shirt that night.
As I pointed back in the Strikeforce Los Angeles write-up, BestBuy appeared to be a local sponsor on the mat tied to the EA Sports MMA logo. BestBuy was indeed gone from this event. On the other hand, GameFly had big role as a sponsor, where it’s logo could be seen on the mat and on the cage. It appears that more sponsors are starting to jump on Strikeforce, which can only be a positive for their future events and possibly their return to CBS.
Another big winner in the event was Cage Hero, which heavily sponsored Cung Le and his corner as you can see in the picture above (Channing Tatum). It also had heavy advertisement on MMAJunkie heading into the fight. Cage Hero also sponsors Strikeforce MW prospect Luke Rockhold, who is expected to make his return in August in the upcoming Houston event.
As I mentioned before, BlowOutCards.com was another winner in the show. They sponsored Jan Finney in her 145 lbs fight against Strikeforce champion Cris Cyborg, who incredibly made it to the second round after taking an incredible amount of punishment in the first. Great display of heart and courage by her, though many felt the fight should have been stopped in the first round.
Celebrity watch
It has been an interesting trend to monitor, but more and more celebrities are starting to attend Strikeforce events. When I attended Strikeforce in Los Angeles, I was shocked at how many celebrities were in attendance, but I assumed it had more to do with the event itself being in Los Angeles. Needless to say I wasn’t expecting that in San Jose, and I was completely wrong. Actors Channing Tatum, Micky Rourke, Forest Whitaker and many other professional athletes were reported to be in attendance. This is something interesting to keep an eye out on for future events.
Actor Forest Whitaker was so caught up in the moment of Werdum beating Fedor, that he was spotted celebrating with Werdum’s entourage backstage (picture above).
Ratings, Gate, and Attendance
The reported attendance for the event was 12,698 total (11, 757 paid, 941 in luxury boxes) with a gate of $1,066,739.00. If our numbers are correct, this would be their second gate ever over 1 million dollars, which is always a good sign. That attendance number is the sixth biggest attendance and second biggest gate in Strikeforce history.
The ratings are still being sorted at the moment, but MMAJunkie is reporting that the ratings are up 56% from the last Showtime televised event and garnered the third-highest rated Strikeforce event on Showtime.
Early estimates for this past weekend’s historic “Strikeforce and M-1 Global: Fedor vs. Werdum” co-promoted event put the average Showtime viewership at approximately 550,000 viewers when including DVR and on-demand figures.
…
As is typical for mixed martial arts broadcasts, the viewership increased throughout the broadcast, and the ratings peaked during the main event between Fedor Emelianenko and Fabricio Werdum with a 2.1 household rating and more than 700,000 viewers when factoring in DVR and on-demand data.
Contrary to those numbers, SpikeTV has a press release which states that the Strikeforce show garnered a 1.38HH rating with an average viewership of 412K while drawing a 1.39 in M18-34 and 1.2 in M18-49.
Since the SpikeTV release, Dave Meltzer has reported updated ratings for the event, which he states as doing a 1.5 HH rating with a viewership of 492k. The main event peaked at a 2.1 HH and garnered 700K viewers. The show itself did a 1.48 in Males 18-34 and 1.08 in Males 35-49.
Fighter Payouts
Fabricio Werdum: $100,000
def. Fedor Emelianenko: $400,000
Cung Le: $100,000
def. Scott Smith: $55,000
Cristiane “Cyborg” Santos: $35,000 (includes $15,000 win bonus and $5,000 champion bonus)
def. Jan Finney: $6,000
Josh Thomson: $60,000
def. Pat Healy: $8,000
Chris Cope: $3,000 ($1,000 win bonus)
def. Ron Keslar: $1,500
Bret Bergmark: $3,000 ($1,500 win bonus)
def. Vagner Rocha: $2,500
Yancey Medeiros: $8,000 ($4,000 win bonus)
def. Gareth Joseph: $2,000
Bobby Stack: $2,800 ($1,500 win bonus)
def. Derrick Burnsed: $2,000
Total: $789,000.
HT: MMAJunkie
Event Notes:
- Josh Gross: Fabricio Werdum signed a three-fight extension with Strikeforce prior to the Fedor fight, so he’s not going anywhere for a while.
- ESPN: Fabricio Werdum makes ESPN‘s Ford Cross-Sport Power Rankings, ranked #3 in poll. Reason given by ESPN: “He beat a guy who hasn’t lost since 2000. Enough said.”"
UFC on Versus 2: Salt Lake to San Diego
June 16, 2010
Jeremy Botter of Heavy.com first reported that UFC on Versus 2 was being moved from Salt Lake City to San Diego on Monday. This news has since been confirmed by the UFC as the organization cited poor ticket sales as the main reason for the move.
Las Vegas, NV (USA) – The UFC® announced today that the Sunday, August 1st UFC® LIVE event scheduled at EnergySolutions Arena in Salt Lake City, Utah, is moving to San Diego, Calif., and will now take place live from the San Diego Sports Arena.
“Our television ratings in Salt Lake City have always been strong, and when we finally found the opportunity to bring a UFC event there with a great card, I was very surprised and disappointed in ticket sales. As a result, for the first time in UFC history, I decided to pull the plug and move this August 1st event to the San Diego Sports Arena,” said UFC President Dana White.
Payout Perspective:
I understand that the ticket sales were disappointing, but what did the UFC expect? It scheduled a mixed martial arts event on a Sunday evening in arguably the most religious city in the United States. This isn’t about the UFC’s popularity waning or even a dramatically reduced growth rate. It’s about a misjudgment the company made in scheduling the event.
In fairness to the UFC, it’s normally pretty sharp on this, but it does slip up from time to time. For example, it gaffed last year when it chose to schedule UFC 102 in Portland on the same weekend as the massively popular Hood to Coast Relay Marathon and LPGA’s Safeway Classic. These events significantly cut into the top end of the UFC’s market and that’s part of the reason it had to cut ticket prices (the other was that it just over-priced in a down economy).
These things happen – mistakes happen – but this is not a signal of MMA’s demise. Rather, this is yet again another illustration of the panic exhibited by members of the MMA community. The sky is not falling; in fact, the UFC is currently on track to beat last year’s PPV and gate totals (although it remains to be seen whether it can do so on the averages).
Moreover, I think many people are missing the big picture perspective, here: the first event in Australia or Germany or Abu Dhabi might not sell like an event in Las Vegas, but successive events will begin to yield stronger PPV and gate results, increased interest in the sport, greater participation amongst youth, and a better future for MMA as a whole.
But what can the UFC take from this? I think its got to be more cautious in terms of where and when it schedules events. The external operating environment doesn’t just consist of television ratings or demographic sizes; there are other considerations to be made (like competition from various forms of entertainment, for example).
UFC 115: Payout Perspective
June 14, 2010
Welcome to another edition of Payout Perspective! This week we’ll be taking a look at the UFC’s debut in Vancouver, British Columbia with UFC 115: Liddell vs. Franklin. The sold out event at General Motors Place featured a light heavyweight bout between two UFC legends – Liddell and Franklin – in addition to a co-main event tilt at heavyweight between Mirko CroCop and Pat Barry.
Liddell knocked out for fourth time in six fights
Chuck Liddell may have entered Saturday’s fight in the best physical shape of his career, but his reflexes and chin were very much those of a 40 year-old former champion with too many fights under his belt. He’s now been KO’d in four of his last six fights – nearly all of them in devastating fashion.
It’s hard to believe that this isn’t the end for Liddell – regardless of the prior promises that may have been made by Dana White in April 2009 – the writing is very much on the wall here. Even if you don’t buy the argument that Liddell fighting is a detriment to his health or his legacy, I’m not sure anyone can deny that interest in Chuck Liddell fighting is at an all-time low. MMA fans aren’t stupid; however nostalgic they might be, it’s hard to believe there’s a huge demand to see Liddell in the cage again.
Franklin breaks arm, UFC’s Fall schedule uncertain
It was rumored that the winner of Liddell vs. Franklin would take on Forrest Griffin (pending Griffin’s own health) in the Fall, but that’s unlikely to happen now that Rich Franklin is out with a broken forearm (an injury suffered while blocking a Liddell kick). The injury isn’t severe, but it should sideline Franklin for at least 6-8 weeks.
That recovery period will likely push Franklin’s next fight towards November or December, which effectively eliminates another non-champion main event option for the UFC’s Fall campaign (looking increasingly devoid of title fights from September through mid-November). The LW belt is up for grabs August 28th, the WW belt in mid-December, the MW belt in early-August, the LHW belt is out indefinitely, and HW is July 3rd (with a typically long turn around time).
Unless the HW or MW belts can turn around quickly, the UFC is likely to experience a period without title fights reminiscent of last Fall. My hope was that the UFC was going to be able to manufacture a few more interesting non-title headliners like Rashad vs. Rampage (although not on that level) to bridge the gap, but its options are decreasing by the day: Liddell’s loss more or less removes any possibility of a third bout with Ortiz and Franklin’s arm injury will delay his return.
I like the idea of a Rampage vs. Forrest rematch; Rampage is coming off a very popular fight (even if he lost) and the rematch provides a promotional angle to push the fight beyond 500k in PPV buys. Then there are guys like Lyoto Machida, Vitor Belfort, Frank Mir, and even Mirko Cro Cop that might be available. Further, I’d also propose pushing the Couture vs. Toney fight back one month and letting it headline an event (however, I think there’s also a very strong counter-argument there: you don’t want a former boxing champ headlining a UFC show in his debut).
Finally, there’s also the possibility that Anderson Silva crushes Chael Sonnen at UFC 117 and then vacates the MW title in search of greater challenges at 205lbs. However, even if this did open the MW title, I question what good it might do considering that the fans have been told for the last 3 years that no one at 185 is even close to Anderson. So, what interest does a 185 title fight without Silva hold?
UFC 115 sells out, but many questions linger
UFC 115 sold over $4.2 million at the gate on approximately 17,000 fans, which is very strong (especially for a non-title fight). However, it’s been widely speculated that the 30 minute sell-out this Spring was manufactured by scalpers that bought huge quantities of tickets anticipating strong demand for the UFC’s debut in Vancouver. Thus, while the demand for MMA in Vancouver is strong, the gate probably isn’t a sound reflection of the interest for this fight in particular.
There’s been further speculation that UFC 115 may have been a one and done for the UFC in Vancouver, because the cost of promoter’s insurance was exorbitant. It’s believed that the absence of any provincial regulation in British Columbia (or federal for that matter) meant that individual municipalities were liable in the event of serious injury or wrong-doing. Thus, the City of Vancouver rightly passed this burden onto the UFC – probably not a lot it could do.
However, I’m inclined to think that the worst case scenario is the UFC isn’t back in Vancouver for another year or two until regulation is brought about provincially (or perhaps federally). It’s too strong a market for the UFC to ignore and it seems unlikely the UFC is going to give up on such a market now that they’ve got a dedicated office in the country.
Prospect watch
It was an interesting night on the prospect front: nearly everyone looked impressive, but some exhibited more maturity than others which ultimately determined their success on the night.
Rory MacDonald was very impressive in the loss and showed tremendous poise for a 20 year-old. If he doesn’t take the fight to the ground in the third, he probably wins. I’m inclined to put him in the same category as a Jon Jones (perhaps minus the commercial appeal, but he does have the Canadian market) and someone to really keep an eye on.
Pat Barry also looked good before succumbing to his own hubris and failing to finish CroCop when he had the chance (perhaps a rematch is in order and the result is likely to be different). I really like the way he’s able to speak to the camera and work the crowd. If he can get his head on and develop some ground skills, he could be a force.
Evan Dunham and Claude Patrick also looked great in their victories. Dunham in particular took a very big step by defeating Tyson Griffin, and you’ve almost got to consider him a contender now. I’m not sure Dunham is the potentially dominating fighter than MacDonald is (or the exciting one that Barry is), but he’s a well-rounded contender and someone that should figure prominently in main cards from here on out.
Sponsorship watch
It was a really interesting night on the sponsorship side.
The Bud Light commercial during the UFC Prelim broadcast was another solid step in the relationship between the two organizations. If you missed it, the commercial featured two friends at a UFC viewing party that race each other to the store to pick up some Bud Light and in the process they bring a bunch of characters back with them to watch the fights.
Finally! Bud Light is now starting to integrate elements of the UFC culture into its advertising, and that’s something that’s going to help it better affect awareness in that target MMA demographic and push its sales goals within that demo. If Bud Light’s goal is to make its beer the beer of choice for UFC fans, then taking the approach of the “official beer of the UFC viewing party” is a wise one. In many ways, this is similar to the company’s tailgate approach to football.
However, I still think Bud Light could do better in terms of borrowing the UFC’s equity to reach that M18-34 audience. It all depends on what its ultimate objectives for the sponsorship are and how much its willing to invest to try and drill down to the value that’s there. Remember, it’s not just the association now that counts, but the future association between Bud Light and UFC as MMA continues to grow.
Some other points of interest:
- Anyone notice the Affliction banner ads on the Octagon posts? This is new and almost an encroachment on Tapout’s territory; clearly it doesn’t have an exclusivity hold on the clothing category, but the octagon has always been an exclusive domain for the company.
- LG’s new Ally phone was the presenting sponsor of the Prelims, which is a great pick up for the UFC and Spike. If there’s one category that hasn’t really jumped into MMA, but needs to, it’s consumer electronics: the fights look so much better in HD and there are so many different electronics that improve the fight experience (phones, TVs, DVRs, audio equipment). Let’s hope this is the beginning of more.
Note: I’ve made updates to the Blue Book since UFC 114 (mostly Bellator stuff), but I’ll have these UFC 115 adds made in the next day.
UFC in Afghanistan Risky, Difficult to Implement
April 27, 2010
John Morgan of MMAJunkie reports on the latest news regarding the UFC in Afghanistan. Dana White has expressed his desire to hold an event for the troops in the war-torn nation, but can the UFC pull it off?
“We actually want to go right into Afghanistan and put on an event in the middle of all the [expletive],” White said. “It’s going to happen. … Anything can happen if you want it to happen bad enough.”
Afghanistan, of course, has been a constant war zone since the U.S. military first launched Operation Enduring Freedom in 2001.
White said he can’t pinpoint exactly when the promotion would visit the country. Truthfully, it’s not completely up to him to decide.
“We’re working on it right now, and it’s so crazy,” White said. “It’s going to be so freaky that they can’t tell us exactly when and where it’s going to be. The military is going to let us know when we can do it.
“It’s going to be crazy, man. We’re going to go right into the middle of this thing and put on an event.”
Payout Perspective:
Dana White’s desire to host a UFC event in Afghanistan is admirable, but is it realistic? I’m not convinced that it will happen any time soon.
Here are a few of the potential roadblocks that I have identified, whether they be legitimate or potential issues, that might prohibit the UFC from holding a fight in Afghanistan under its current security conditions:
1. Holding an event in Afghanistan would likely increase the threat level in the country, which means extensive planning would need to be done in order to conceal the date and location of the fights and reinforce the location’s security. The enormity of that task becomes more evident when you consider the sheer number of people involved in running an event and the age of communication we live in.
1A. Increased threat levels also imply increased danger to the very military personnel the UFC is trying to support.
2. Thus, how do you convince the fighters to participate?
3. How does the UFC coordinate the set-up of the venue and filming of the event? Surely, live broadcasting is out of the question given their need to “get in and get out.”
4. If an attack were to occur, it would likely delay the event by at least a few days (if not weeks or indefinitely). What would that do to the fighters in terms of their weight cuts or mental states? Would the UFC and its fighters be willing to stick around, if hostilities flared up and all hell started to break loose?
5. If an attack were to occur during an event and casualties were to occur, how would the UFC deal with it? Moreover, if it were to lose some of its own personnel (fighters or executives), what are the implications? How would the UFC deal with the families, with moving forward, etc.?
It’s probably doable, but the UFC unquestionably has a lot of work to do. Thus, while its goal is admirable, I’m not sure that the UFC wouldn’t be better served focusing its energy else where – especially on the philanthropic side – to make a bigger impact.
Strikeforce Nashville: Payout Perspective
April 18, 2010
Welcome to another edition of Payout Perspective! This week we take a look at Strikeforce’s second show on CBS simply entitled Nashville, which was held at the Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee. The event featured three title fights: Gegard Mousasi vs. Mo Lawal at 205lbs, Gilbert Melendez vs. Shinya Aoki at 155lbs, and Jake Shields vs. Dan Henderson at 185lbs.
Shields victorious, likely UFC bound
Jake Shields dominated every part of his five round unanimous decision victory over former Pride champion and UFC contender Dan Henderson – aside from the early over-hand right to the side of the head that sent him reeling. He may have lacked the power in his hands to finish the fight in the mount position (which he had numerous times), but he was absolutely impressive on the ground – passing guard, moving in and out of mount, maintaining mount, getting off strikes, and attempting submissions.
You’d think after a fight like that, Strikeforce would be absolutely stoked – its probably not and for many reasons. Ignoring the post-fight brawl for a moment, the Shields victory has now put Strikeforce in a very tough position. Next to Fedor, Dan Henderson, was the promotion’s most prized possession from a marketing standpoint; the organization had hoped to capitalize on tenure with the UFC to generate more interest in its own brand. Shields has derailed any hope of that happening in the near future.
Moreover, because Shields contract is going to expire in the next few months – before he gets a chance to complete the final fight on the deal – he’s the equivalent of a star hockey player going into free agency on the heels of a brilliant contract year. The UFC is going to throw the bank at this kid and his unwillingness to talk about his impending free agency, combined with his open displeasure for the way he was promoted in this last fight, leads me to believe he’ll dart to the UFC the first chance he gets.
If you’re prone to MMA math, Shields is now arguably both the #2 welterweight and middleweight in the world. Thus, he’s of great value to the UFC in terms of giving them a potential challenger to both Georges St-Pierre and Anderson Silva. Why wouldn’t the UFC throw the bank at him, especially if it means it comes at the expense of Strikeforce, Showtime, and CBS (all of whom Dana White has openly acknowledged to be at war with).
Miller vs. Cesar Gracie Camp brawl mars fight night, CBS partnership in serious jeopardy
Miller entered the cage on his own presumably to hype a potential rematch between he and Shields – perhaps as a way to incentivize Shields to sign another contract – but that plan backfired pretty quickly when a brawl broke out between Miller and Shields’ corner crew (including Nick Diaz). I’m not sure anyone could have predicted a brawl was going to break out, but I have to question why on earth there were so many people in the cage after the fight.
It’s not like this is the first time Diaz and co. have been involved in a post-fight scuffle, either (see: EliteXC: Return of the King). It makes me wonder whether anyone was really paying attention and learning from the mistakes made by previous promotions…
Now, it would seem as though the Strikeforce-CBS partnership is in serious jeopardy. The dilemma for major television networks regarding MMA is that, while they’d like to pick up the sport to draw a younger audience, they also do not want to sacrifice their existing audience. Tonights brawl will have done nothing to help that cause, especially considering it happened at the very end of the broadcast and right as viewers were tuning in to watch the nightly news. CBS is likely to get a fair number of complaints over the next week and that’s understandable given what happened.
Will the brawl impact MMA in the long term? It depends on your view of the sport’s position in the overall sports landscape. There are those that are constantly fearful of MMA’s impending fall from grace and they’re probably pretty worried right now – on all fronts. I’m a little more reserved: I tend to think it’ll certainly impact MMA’s pursuits on television (especially where CBS is concerned), but I don’t believe it’ll have an impact on any of MMA’s remaining regulatory pursuits (mainly because New York and Ontario are eventualities at this point).
The UFC owns enough brand equity at this point that it’ll be able to overcome any sort of impaired bargaining power with the networks, which is important because MMA goes as the UFC goes (like it or not). Unfortunately, Strikeforce will probably take the brunt of the fallout for this one, and perhaps rightfully so.
Melendez deals Aoki, Japanese MMA a blow
Gilbert Melendez successfully defended his lightweight title using his wrestling and the cage to batter Shinya Aoki over five rounds. The fight probably didn’t deliver the fantastic result that Strikeforce was hoping for – a great submission or knockout – but it was far from a boring affair.
BJ Penn’s loss last week left an opening for Aoki to assume the number one lightweight status, but the Melendez victory means he’ll likely fall. It also points to a possible flaw in the ranking system whereby most fail to take into account the difference in fighting between the ring and cage (in addition to the numerous rule discrepancies between the US and Japan). Nonetheless, if Shinya Aoki was fighting on behalf of all Japan in this fight, his loss is a blow to the legitimacy of the organizations over there.
Lawal uses wrestling to bring Mousasi back down to earth
Gegard Mousasi, 24, was widely considered to be the best fight prospect not in the UFC, but the Mousasi we all saw in the cage on Saturday was far from what anyone expected. Lawal was able to take down Mousasi with ease and avoid much of his vaunted submission game en route to a decision victory.
The win has some people wondering what all the fuss is about. Mousasi’s performance tonight was certainly not indicative of a top ten light heavyweight, but he didn’t look as sharp on his feet or on the ground as he normally does. While Lawal did get the victory and win the belt, he also looked to be far from a top 10 light heavyweight. Both are great young prospects, but both also have miles to come in their progression.
Nashville improves presentation, commentating still a disappointment
The big issue I had with the first CBS card was its horrible presentation. The camera angles weren’t great and the camera switching was horrible – the ref was often in the way and if he wasn’t, the angle was off or the camera was too tight. Much of that was fixed this time around, so kudos to both Strikeforce and CBS for making the necessary adjustments.
I’ll also say that Strikeforce did a much better job in making this card feel like a Strikeforce card. The UFC wasn’t mentioned nearly as often and they actually made an attempt to promote their next events. Still, the Strikeforce brand is pretty hollow; part of the reason these events lack a theme and a feel is because Strikeforce as a brand lacks an identity.
And despite any improvements on the presentation side, the broadcast still featured shoddy commentating, especially late in the evening as the brawl took place. Gus Johnson saying “sometimes these things happen in MMA” made everyone cringe. Mauro Renallo trying to push Jake Shields out of the way during the second interview was embarrassing, as was his attempt to blame the whole thing on Mayhem Miller (absolving Melendez and Nick Diaz of their involvement).
CBS sells entire advertisement inventory
News broke last week that CBS had managed to sell its entire ad inventory for the event, which was definitely not a bad thing but also not a firm sign/indicator of an increase in interest in the fight or the brand over the first event. So, it’s important to take a look at what was bought and with what kind of frequency these commercials aired. The ad buys are split into regions and what I saw isn’t likely to be what everyone else saw.
Here’s are most of the commercial slots that CBS sold: Full Tilt Poker, Lost Planet 2, Castrol, Dish Network, Taco Bell, Under Armour, Avatar, Street Fighter IV, EA MMA, Nightmare on Elm Street, Degree deodorant, DirecTV, Monster Hunter 3, GameFly, GoDaddy.com, The Losers, Geico, Just for Men Hair Gel, Icy Hot, HD Net Fights, and The Losers.
This commercial set more or less mirrors what we saw from the first show: a heavy emphasis on video games and movies with additional male-oriented product ads thrown into the mix. However, there were no alcohol, major electronics, or other advertisements that might indicate that companies are becoming more comfortable with the idea of MMA on Primetime.
Sponsorship Watch
MMAPayout.com’s sponsorship blue book has been updated.
The event broadcast was sponsored by Full Tilt Poker, EA Sports MMA, Capcom, and the movie The Losers. The event itself was sponsored by Rockstar Energy Drink, Full Tilt, and EA MMA.
Mayorga-Thomas Press Conference Entertains
April 16, 2010
Yesterday, Shine Fights held a pre-fight press conference for its Mayorga-Thomas fight scheduled for next month on May 15th. During the session, things got pretty tense between Mayorga and Thomas. Watch for yourself:
Payout Perspective:
There was something about the dynamic of Mayorga talking so much trash, the old lady translating, and Thomas visibly seething that made the press conference highly entertaining. While I don’t condone the language or discriminatory remarks, I will admit that I am now very interested to see this fight. Shine may have something here; it’s just a matter getting this clip enough exposure to generate significant interest in the show.
My only hesitation with press conferences of this nature – or the whole trash talking to hype fights strategy – is that if it happens too often, it will eventually lose its value. I also tend to think there’s a bit of credibility pulled from the sport when something like this happens – it sort of feeds or perpetuates the stereotypes.
Enough of my thoughts, though. Who’s watching on May 15th? If I can get enough guys together, I will.
Silva's Next Opponent: Chael Sonnen
April 14, 2010
Dana White announced on ESPN’s “Jim Rome is Burning” that Anderson Silva’s next opponent will be UFC middleweight and former WEC middleweight champion Chael Sonnen.
“He’s got a real tough fight coming up. His next fight’s going to be against Chael Sonnen, and Chael Sonnen’s one of these guys who’s not going to lay back, not do what these other guys (did),” White told Rome.
He believes that Sonnen’s style will not allow for any showboating or avoidance, as Silva showed in his last fight with Demian Maia.
“When he’s been in this position when these types of fights have happened, it’s been against real good jiu-jitsu guys, guys that want to get the fight to the ground. Well, Chael Sonnen’s going to want to take this fight to the ground, but he’s going to double leg him and bring him down,” said White.
Payout Perspective:
I think I’m having a slight change of heart where Anderson Silva at 185lbs. is concerned. In this week’s UFC 112: Payout Perspective I stated that I didn’t believe there was much interest left in Anderson at middleweight, and while I still believe that’s the case today, I could see that changing in the next couple of months.
Yesterday’s announcement that Silva will defend against Sonnen over the summer likely gave fans an ugly flashback to last Saturday’s performance – it’s too soon! – but Sonnen’s comments immediately after the announcement have given me hope. This main event could sell very well on the combination of Sonnen’s hyping prowess, the UFC’s fan bases growing disdain for Anderson Silva, and the fact that UFC will likely throw a ton of money into promoting this bout.
The UFC has a very obvious play here and that’s to remind everyone just how much Silva pissed them off – he’s this uber talented enigma that just refuses to fight sometimes – and here’s their chance to see him get what he’s got coming to him. Sonnen obviously plays a role in that.
I’ve talked previously about how guys like Dan Hardy and Chael Sonnen are pioneering the trash talking PR strategy for fight hype, but there’s a distinct difference between Sonnen and Hardy: attitude and demeanor. Dan Hardy is a prankster with a quick whit – somewhat of a cheeky Brit – but he doesn’t quite have that believability about him. Sonnen, though, has this straight-faced, cut-to-the-chase, and conservative attitude that is absolutely convincing; if he tells someone they’re an idiot and he wants to whoop their ass, he means it.
That’s effective in and of itself, but even more so now that people are naturally more inclined to believe him, simply because they really want to see someone take the fight to Anderson after his performance at UFC 112.
