Based on the MGM Friday, the crowd for Saturday’s UFC 189 should be amazing. The question as we always like to speculate is how well will it do on PPV?
Jose Aldo pulling out of the fight had to hurt some of the momentum the event promotion had gained from the initial world tour this spring where we all saw on Embedded episodes the rivalry build. The venom between the two seemed to mount and most MMA fans couldn’t wait until July.
As we all know, Aldo had to pull out and a replacement was picked. Interesting enough, Chad Mendes was picked over Frankie Edgar to face Conor McGregor for the interim Featherweight title as Aldo seemingly was shelved due to an injured rib.
The UFC had little time to build the heat for this matchup. Fortunately, McGregor is his own heat source. But, the question remains as to whether he can carry a PPV.
If you want evidence of his appeal, we need only look to this past January where UFC Fight Night on FS1 received one of its best ratings ever drawing an average of 2.7 million with a peak during McGregor’s fight against Dennis Siver of 3.1 million. This all happened the night of Championship Sunday in the NFL when everyone is supposed to be watching football and nothing else. The ratings were aided by NFL-supported marketing and utilizing Conor McGregor as the primary marketing tool.
Still, it does not translate into PPV buys. In fact, McGregor’s only PPV showing came this past September at UFC 178 where he was not the main event but the main attraction as the card featured Demetrious Johnson. UFC 178 drew only 205,000 PPV buys.
With that being said, I did not believe UFC 182 would do as well as it did and the fight featured Daniel Cormier and Jon Jones. Similar to UFC 189, until Aldo was injured, 182 was centered and promoted on just the main event. UFC 182 drew 800,000 buys. It was a surprise when you consider that Cormier was not a draw and Jones was not a strong PPV star despite being one of the most dominant fighters in the sport.
Without MacDonald-Lawler being heavily promoted until this week, it was really up to McGregor to promote this card.
Payout Perspective:
UFC 182 received a lot of buzz pre-fight and there was a big fight feel and appeal to it. Even with Mendes replacing Aldo, UFC 189 has the same big fight feel…but does it have the appeal? Certainly the beginning of this year showed that people are willing to buy UFC PPVs as the first three events this year exceeded expectations. UFC 189 will be the first PPV where the lighter weight division is at the top of the card and expects to produce PPV numbers. The UFC has marketed McGregor as a top draw and sponsors have followed suit. One has to think that they (meaning all involved) know what they are doing. Is McGregor the next great PPV star?
Jack says
Conor was always the attraction even when Aldo was on the card. The buys will still be huge.
The Greatest says
Itll do 400k and the UFC will be pissed when Conor gets submitted in the 2nd round.
Fight Fan says
Conor is not a PPV star lol, dude has to drop mayweathers name just for attention
saldathief says
anything over 250 k is a hit for the ufc these days bahahahahha
d says
HAHAHA!!! You idiots are going to be crying after the numbers come out for this one. 250k/400k is delusional. It will do much better than that.
its time1 says
Ya right easily the biggest ppv event of the yr. Between 900 to 1mil . If it doesn’t go over 1 mill.
JF says
I said around 750k and I<m sticking to my guns.
FightBusiness says
whose chad mendez? no one knows this guy. 600k buys at best and that simply because of the post aldo build up. by the way i’m still waiting on the ufc 187 numbers from meltzer. lol
joe says
Biggest event ever or its a bust.
All this marketing can’t go to waste
d says
Fagbusiness, it doesn’t matter who he’s fighting McGregor is a massive draw. He did over 3m viewers on FS1 with Denis Siver who was barely a top 10 fighter.
This may still turn out to be a massive ppv draw- we’ll wait and see.
Meltzer already released those numbers, by the way, idiot. Go look them up.
d says
Joe has no concept of the fight business at all.
turd says
i think this show will sell at least 500k
but if mcgreggor loses, his hype train is done. dana will be pissed
the ufc is running oujt of ppv draws there last 3 havent sold well at all with anderson
and jones gone, there biggest draw at this moment is rousey , i dont think weidman
can draw on his own, he really has no big name opponent left, lawler isnt a draw
and mcdonald wins, he will never sell more than 200k
the ufc really should focus on lw and fw division there are alot of big fights that
can be made between mendes, edgar, aldo, pettis and dos anjos
d why do you get so angry if people dont agree with you , i am pretty sure you
and brainsmasher are the same you both post the same and always agree with
each other.
d says
Turd, aka Sampson, very amusing that you think I am bs, when in reality I’ve argued with him a number of times on here. You should just admit you have 20 aliases.
Why do you guys get so angry when someone trolls you? If you can’t take it, don’t dish it out.
Your analysis is entirely delusional. Assuming MacDonald will never sell more than 200k buys is ridiculous. That wouldn’t even be true if we are just talking about Canadian ppv buys. Plus everything else you said is very stupid and misinformed.
turd says
i am not sampson
and what makes you think mcdonald will be a ppv draw. and how is my analysis wrong
there past three ppvs have bombed, outside of rousey, they do not have anyone
on the roster at this moment that can draw. im not denying mcdumbass can draw
but if he loses tonight his drawing power will drop big time. the guy is annoying as
shit
JF says
Hey, just realized that the PPV blue book was discreetly updated!
UFC 186 Johnson vs Horiguchi 125,000
UFC 187 Johnson vs Cormier 350,000
UFC 188 Velasquez vs Werdum 300,000
d says
MacDonald never headlined a ppv yet so your argument is completely senseless. We have no idea how well he will draw.
The last 3 ppvs did not bomb, the only one that did was 187. The other two weren’t expected to be big fights.
Rousey and Weidman have both headlined ppvs as an A that went over 500k buys. Jones will be back within a year as will Silva. When Jones fights the winner of Cormier/Gus that will be a guaranteed 800k minimum ppv. CM Punk, Donald Cerrone, MacDonald, Pettis, etc may turn into stars. Plus there is always someone who comes out of nowhere and can become a star. Who would have thought last year we would be talking about Conor McGregor at 145lbs doing anywhere near 1m ppv buys?
The Greatest says
D tried to claim MMA was takin over Hollywood.
The movie Southpaw comes out in a couple weeks.
Bet u it makes more $ then every MMA movie of all time.
d says
Hahaha. The Gayest is delusional and just fabricates things out of thin air.
The movie Southpaw comes out in a couple weeks and becomes box office poison.
Bet you it loses money at the box office.
d says
Turd, care to take back your analysis on McGregor?
JF says
Well it’s over now, the event produced some freakin’ amazing fights. Co-main event was a war like few have seen. Conor got his ass kicked for two rounds by a guy who had no training camp to speak of. Now the question is, how many paid to see it?
The answer will come from Ireland. If the people we saw tonight are the majority of MMA fanatics who travelled to see it live, maybe not as much as the UFC hoped, if instead they represent the enthusiasm of mot Irish sports fan, this could be huge!
In any case, during the May Pac fight, Dana White said this would make over 2 million PPV. A few weeks ago he said over a million. If this PPV doesn’t pull in at least a million will all the money they put on marketing McGreggor (not the fight but the man), this will be a failure for the UFC. If they don’t clear 700k it will be dramatic.
d says
That was one of the best fight cards I’ve ever seen and McGregor proved he is legit. He’s going to beat Aldo and that fight will be the biggest fight in the history of the sport.
If that fight goes down in 2015, the UFC could surpass 7m buys. Leon is self destructing. Hahaha.
d says
JF, it really doesn’t matter because they will make up for it with the McGregor-Aldo match.
FightBusiness says
BAHAHAHA he buy rate for UFC 187 was 385k. fucking hysterical. Cormier and weidman on the card and that did 385k. mayweather is old there will be no more stars. lol yeah but his old ass did 4.6 million and your young asses cant clear 400k with a double headlining card. wow. neve gain talk about boxing ppv numbers after this EPIC fuckin fail. lol. “ufc has so many stars” yeah prove it
FightBusiness says
the year will soon be up/ get use to your new nickname for 3 months. “i love ding ding” if the ufc doesnt hit 5 million ppv buys
FightBusiness says
JF- i never saw the velasquez ppv numbers. oh my god that is so fuckin horrible. a heavyweaight fight is a strong division cant clear 300k ppv buys. so so sad
FightBusiness says
biggest fight in ufc history = 1.1 million pv buys lol
biggest fight in boxing history = 4.8 million ppv buys. lol
biggest check given to a ufc fighter n one night=5 million
biggest boxing check- 230 million
lol
d says
HAHAHAHA!!! Fagbusiness is in panic mode, he realizes boxing will soon have no more ppv stars and the UFC has a massive fight coming up plus many other stars on the rise.
My new nickname??? Its going to be very funny when it goes well over 5m. This fight was probably very big.
Yeah 300k ppv buys for Velasquez in Mexico against Werdum is horrible, delusional. Hey brain dead retard, when was the last time a boxing hw ppv hit 300k buys? As a matter of fact, when was the last time a boxing hw ppv in the US drew 1ppv buy? HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!! Pathetic!!!
d says
“biggest fight in ufc history = 1.1 million pv buys lol
biggest fight in boxing history = 4.8 million ppv buys. lol
biggest check given to a ufc fighter n one night=5 million
biggest boxing check- 230 million
lol”
Every statistic you presented there was false other than possibly the ufc fighter pay.
You have no shame and are a pathetic retard that does zero fact checking and relies on boxing promoter’s for your source of information.
By the way, here are some stats for you:
The UFC outdrew boxing in ppv buys and revenue in the following years:
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
The only reason they outdrew them in 2014 was because nearly every headliner was injured and their two biggest stars didn’t fight/retired. If you think that’s bad, what do you think will happen to boxing ppv buys when Mayweather/Pacquaio retire which is going to happen very shortly(Mayweather is done in September and Pac will be done sometime in 2016. Boxing ppvs are going to collapse, as well as PBC and the sport will be in total disarray.
d says
There was also a million times more entertainment in last night’s ufc than May-Pac. The two sports aren’t even comparable in entertainment value and skill for that matter..mma>>>>boxing.
d says
16,019 in attendance. $7.2 million gate
The Greatest says
I heard this UFC was entertaining but I enjoyed May-Pac and so did most hardcore boxing fans just for the simple reason that it showed how great Mayweather really is.
For casuals it wasn’t good because they expect guys to go rock em sock em robots.
But what I gathered it that Conor got his ass kicked for two rounds until Mendes gassed and he beat him.
Ppl bring up Edgar as the guy to finish Conor.
Aldo beats him when they fight/ if they fight.
I bet Aldo gets someone else before Conor just to milk it.
mmaguru says
Judging by the bars last night, I would think it will do moderately well. My bold prediction at this point is around 550K buys.
BrainSmasher says
This fight got to much press. It should easily do 800k-1.2 million. Connor was on Conan and come off well. You had people like Arnold and U2 posting they were team Connar. Which sends the message to their fans he is a big deal. Lots of mainstream people tune in when they think everyone else is and its the cool thing to do. Even the way ESPN was talking about Connor showed this is going to be special!
He will beat Aldo who is trying to avoid him at all cost. Everyone else is trying to jump to the front of the line to fight Connor because the huge payday. Aldo is pulling out and hoping people knock him off. Why would anyone hope another fighter ruined the biggest payday of your career unless you wasn’t confident in your chances to beat him yourself? That speaks volumes about Aldo! He knows what I have said from the start. He faded after the first 2 rounds and there is no way he can keep up with Connor or even a Pettis for 5 rounds. It would be close the first round or two then Connor would knock him out.
Chris says
That card last night blew away any boxing event, sure Floyd/Manny did more money and more buys but it couldnt hold a candle to UFC 189.
That was combat sports at its finest.
Event of the year. Not all of them can be like that, few are but when a big event lives up to the hype its a special thing.
Most boxing and mma fights that get huge hype dont live up to it. Rampage/Rashad, basically every Floyd fight and so many others.
Was glad to finally see a hyped event live up to it.
Cant wait for Aldo/McGregor.
Diego says
“Aldo is pulling out and hoping people knock him off.”
Uh, his rib may have had something to do with pulling out.
“He knows what I have said from the start.”
Yes, that’s right. Aldo reads your posts on MMAPayout religiously and deep down inside he knows you’re right about him. Poor guy. How does he sleep at night?
Regardless, this result will only heighten the expectation for Connor-Aldo. I think that fight does even better now in terms of PPV buys, especially with Connor running his mouth about Aldo ducking him.
6 months in we’re at 3.1M PPV buys. My guess for this card is at least 600k which puts the total to close to 4M buys with 5 months left to go. I make d the favorite to win his bet.
d says
“I heard this UFC was entertaining but I enjoyed May-Pac and so did most hardcore boxing fans just for the simple reason that it showed how great Mayweather really is.
For casuals it wasn’t good because they expect guys to go rock em sock em robots.”
Anyone who is objective what so ever would realize that May-Pac was a horribly boring snooze fest and McGregor-Mendes was the best combat sports fight card in years. Mayweather fights like a coward and should not be commended for it. He doesn’t have to go rock em sock em robots to put on a good show. He runs the entire fight and throws mostly jabs and non power shots to score points, he doesn’t attempt to ko his opponent ever.
“But what I gathered it that Conor got his ass kicked for two rounds until Mendes gassed and he beat him.
Ppl bring up Edgar as the guy to finish Conor.
Aldo beats him when they fight/ if they fight.
I bet Aldo gets someone else before Conor just to milk it.”
He certainly didn’t get his ass kicked. Mendes wasn’t hurting him at all, but did take him down a number of times and was controlling the grappling. In the first two rounds though, McGregor was still landing often when they were on their feet and I guarantee you those body shots he was landing hurt Mendes early on and slowed him down. Either way, the man won the fight and it was legit and he is legit.
What this just did was set up the biggest ufc fight in the history of the sport and I’m sure it is driving you nuts. Hahaha. It is killing you that there are tons of stars in the UFC and only 2 aging ones in boxing. Hahahaha.
d says
“Judging by the bars last night, I would think it will do moderately well. My bold prediction at this point is around 550K buys.”
The bars were across the country were pretty packed last night based on what Meltzer’s survey results showed. And there is no way on Earth this only did 550k buys. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if this hit 1m. This was big.
d says
Diego, yeah, I think they can hit 7m also if that fight goes down on that December card which is what I believe they are targeting it for. White said he wanted the fight as soon as possible. It is certainly going to be in Vegas and those December cards are nearly always set for Vegas. Seems like that may be the date they are heading for.
I still have
Rousey-Correira……should do at least 400k
Weidman-Rockhold…..500k
Gustafsson-Cormier….300k
Cerrone-RDA…………..300k
Plus 1 more.
Pink Pig says
Meltzer stated Mayweather-Pacquiao did 4.4 million buys with a 70+ million gate.
Amazing how SMALL the UFC is by comparison.
Ahahahahahaha
d says
Meltzer doesn’t do any research on boxing ppv’s and just repeated what HBO/Showtime reported.
The UFC has destroyed boxing in ppv buys and revenue in 7 out of the last 8 years. Amazing how pathetic boxing has become. 20 years ago, they dominated the ppv industry, now MMA is easily king. Boxing’s stars are the same stars they had years ago and are retiring soon, their ppv industry is doomed to fail.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!
d says
The 2nd biggest boxing gate this year was probably around 2m. Every UFC ppv this year was bigger than that other than Demetrious Johnson. That is a total of 7 ppvs the UFC has done this year with bigger gates than every boxing card other than Mayweather. Talk about domination.
The Greatest says
Biggest fight in UFC history my ass.
UFC 189 was a decent card.
Cant call it the best ever when the main event was scheduled two weeks ago.
d says
Hahaha. The Gayest self destructing. He, along with all the boxing trolls can’t deal with the fact that not only was this a huge event, the next one will be the biggest in mma history and will likely destroy any boxing ppv from here on out.
BrainSmasher says
Diego. I didn’t say Aldo reads my comments. I will reword it so you understand better. “Aldo knows, and I have always said it, that he can’t beat Connor or Pettis”.
Is that better? Also his ribs had little to do with anything. When fighters want to fight because it is a fight they are confident and in their favor. They will always show up. When they are not confident they always finds reason to get out of the fight.
Aldo lied about his Ribs being broke and used a doctor with a shady past as his proof. While the UFC used 3 doctors with good reputations who said that was a heeled old injury and his ribs were only bruised.
This is the fifth time he has pulled out. Again even if he was hurt. Why would he be rooting for Mendez to beat Connor? If Connor loses he loses a pay days that is equal to 10 of his normal title fights! Styles make fights and its a bad fight for Aldo and even the bookies knew it going in. Aldo knows it as well as his coaches who pulled him from the fight. The to public hope a guy you beat 2 times takes out the opponent you just ducked with all that money on the line is VERY TELLING! I have never seen a fight duck a pay day like he is doing.
While all the other fighters are fighting to jump to the front of the line for that pay day and begging for it. Also does the opposite while at the same time crying he doesn’t make money all the time.
mmaguru says
“The bars were across the country were pretty packed last night based on what Meltzer’s survey results showed. And there is no way on Earth this only did 550k buys. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if this hit 1m. This was big.”
1 million is a pretty big number for the UFC to hit. If they do it, that would speak volumes for the marketing of McGregor and the lightweight division. My gut tells me that Rhonda and Jones are still bigger draws, simply because they are American. 600K to 700K is not out of the question as this event was highly promoted, but for now, until we get a sense of early numbers, I will stick with 550K +.
mmaguru says
P.S. In my opinion, this was the best UFC PPV in a long time. The stars aligned for on Saturday. Even the Reebok deal is looking like good business right about now.
d says
Rousey and Jones are not as big stars as McGregor. He had 11k people show up to the weigh ins. That is insane. Those two have never done anything remotely close to that. Granted, many of them were Irish who traveled here, but never the less it would still be considerably more. This also did the biggest gate in US history for a mma fight.
I don’t think it is out of the question for it to be lower than 1m, but 550k is too low for this. There was a crazy buzz about it. Even if it bombed, it would have still done at least 700k.
d says
Another thing to point out is how much money they put into the production. They brought in Sinead O’Connor/Aaron Lewis to sing live, their production quality looked even higher than it normally did. The PR tour, advertisements were much bigger for this fight than anything I’ve ever seen before.
mmaguru says
d, extremely impressive changes. Nice to see UFC changing things up and taking the sport to the next level for production and promotional purposes. With that said, I’m not a big fan of the live performances (intros). Hopefully that will be one thing that we don’t see the next time.
As you stated, weigh-ins were packed, but I’d say the “real” uptick in numbers is due to the Irish fans. I’m not convinced that the US fans are ready to put their full weight behind Conor even though the he drew 3 million viewers on Fox, that was free. I just don’t think Conor is Lesnar, at least not yet. But the UFC is trying hard to push their new cash cow.
mmaguru says
d, i agree. 550K is the floor on this one, 1 million the ceiling.
d says
The Irish weren’t that many where that significant of a number were just because of them. When you have 11k show up for a weigh in, that means you hit it out of the park. Also there have been UFC weigh ins in the past that were loaded with Brazilian fans for Anderson Silva and still came no where near this number.
I’d say the floor is 700k and the ceiling as actually higher than 1m. We shall see though.
Brandon says
I have bin looking to see how many buys it has done but can’t find it anywhere