WEC 49 Ratings: 324,000 Viewers (Updated)
June 24, 2010
The Staff at MMAJunkie have revised their report stating that WEC 49 garnered an average audience of 244,000. The official numbers have been reported as 324,000 on the average with a peak of 528,000.
However, initial reports of an average audience of just 244,000 viewers have since been revised, and industry sources have indicated to MMAjunkie.com (www.mmajunkie.com) that the new tally indicates an average audience of 324,000 viewers.
“WEC 49: Varner vs. Shalorus” took place June 20 at Rexall Place in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada.
In addition to the revised average audience figure, industry officials also report that the event peaked with 528,000 viewers.
The event – which followed “Strikeforce: Los Angeles” on Wednesday, Bellator 22 on Thursday, and The Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale on Saturday – remains the lowest-rated show for the WEC since the promotions’s record-breaking WEC 34 event (1.54 million viewers) in June 2008.
Payout Perspective:
The situation remains more or less the same, and so does the analysis:
Zuffa has taken some odd steps with this brand in the last six months, and I’m not sure that the casual MMA fan knows what to think. The WEC threw all of its eggs in one basket with WEC 48 in the hopes of jumping the brand over that hardcore-casual audience chasm that’s currently a major hurdle for the company. However, while the PPV was a resounding success, the WEC was unable to capitalize on much of the immediate aftermath, because it was unable to brand itself during the event.
Thus, the WEC was faced with the situation of having to run its follow-up to WEC 48 (Aldo vs. Faber) with no credible headline and no sustained momentum. Even if the promotion had wanted to engage in a quick turnaround on Versus, the competitive sports landscape in May was such that the promotion really couldn’t nail down a night without facing competing events/sports.
These ratings are a function of the risks the WEC took in putting together its first PPV.
The good news? The WEC should see the return of many of its headline-worthy fighters in the next few months: Dominick Cruz will put his title on the line in August, Aldo will be ready for the Fall, Faber is dropping down to 135, and Henderson will likely defend against Shalorus in the Fall. If the WEC can emerge with a solid ratings spike over the next six months and a bona fide attraction in Jose Aldo (which should come eventually, so long as he continues to demolish people), then WEC 49 will be seen as a necessary sacrifice for the greater good.
If not, it’s likely evidence that Aldo vs. Faber didn’t help the WEC achieve what it should have.
WWE and YouTube Enter Partnership
June 23, 2010
The WWE has announced a multi-year partnership with YouTube that will make full episodes of WWE content available on the popular video sharing website.
World Wrestling Entertainment, Inc. and YouTube announced today a multi-year partnership that will make full episodes of WWE Friday Night SmackDown, WWE NXT, WWE Superstars and ECW available at WWE’s official YouTube channel (YouTube.com/WWE).
This marks one of the first times that YouTube will feature complete episodes of primetime television programs on its site.
The multi-year deal greatly expands WWE’s YouTube channel offerings, which already has 90,000 subscribers who have viewed more than 100 million WWE videos to date. WWE will also augment the channel by increasing content clips of WWE’s flagship program Monday Night Raw, as well as WWE Classics and short videos.
Payout Perspective:
There’s no word on how soon after the airing of each episode will each appear on the WWE’s YouTube channel. Unlike the UFC with its TUF program, there are fewer re-run opportunities for WWE content due to the frequency of the program broadcasts. I suspect this means we’ll see new content posted weekly (if not a day or two after the original airs).
It’s a great move for the WWE: it expands their reach, especially globally, and places the content online where its core audience is quite prevalent.
We’ve been talking about this convergence of television and internet for a while now, and it seems like some of these properties are really starting to open up to the idea. Not only have the UFC and WWE made significant moves towards the digital territory, but even the major sports leagues like the NHL are making a host of games available online.
Note: the omission of WWE Raw from the list of content that will be uploaded to YouTube. It’s hard to blame them for not wanting to give away their bread and butter (it’s also possible that the WWE couldn’t do Raw on YouTube for contractual reasons).
Toronto Sports Bar Ripe for UFC Viewing Party
June 23, 2010
Don Muret of the Sports Business Journal reports on the desire of Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment to turn its Real Sports Bar and Grill into a quasi closed-circuit destination for its Air Canada Center in Toronto.
Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment’s new sports bar next to Air Canada Centre will sell plenty of beer and chicken wings on game days, but it’s on nights when the arena is full for concerts that the company hopes to cash in on a big food and drink payday
Payout Perspective:
The UFC had a great amount of success with its sponsored viewing party in New York for UFC 111, and it would seem that this new facility next to the ACC might be the perfect location for similar events in Toronto.
If the UFC were able to create a massive monthly, or even quarterly, viewing party, it would assuredly grow the organization’s presence in the market and serve as a complement to the new UFC Canada office. The marketing and buzz that these parties would generate might also apply further pressure on provincial and federal politicians to legalize the sport.
Moreover, if a bill supporting MMA is passed, this new bar could provide the optimal closed-circuit location for the UFC – making a Toronto visit even more lucrative.
TUF 11 Finale: 1.4 HH
June 23, 2010
MMAPayout.com has learned that the TUF 11 Finale on Spike TV drew a 1.4 HH rating on the strength of 2 million average viewers over its three hour broadcast on Saturday night. However, the show peaked at 2.4 million viewers for the main event that saw Court McGee defeat Kris McCray.
The program also garnered a 2.3 in the M18-34 and 1.8 in the M18-49 demographics.
Payout Perspective:
The broadcast is probably a poor result when you compare it to previous TUF Finale events; the 1.4 HH is the lowest TUF Finale rating since Season 4 did a 1.1 HH (the season that Serra and Lutter won title shots).
I think this is ultimately a reflection of the quality of the fight card. Interesting fights will bring a crowd. No disrespect to McGee vs. McCray or Hamill vs. Jardine, but neither was a fight that anyone had a great deal of interest in seeing. This is especially true when you consider that the last Spike card featured Florian vs. Gomi and the next free television card (on Versus) will feature Jon Jones vs. Vlady Matyushenko. There’s a huge discrepancy there.
——-
Where does the UFC go from here? It would seem that more of the status quo is in order:
- Two big name coaches: Team St-Pierre vs. Team Koscheck
- No big format change: the talk within the industry is that it’s more or less the same format (nothing drastic)
- Same promises: once again, officials are already leaking bits of news that it’s “the most exciting TUF ever”.
I’d obviously like to see them make a change. I tend to side with being proactive rather than reactive, but I’m not sure it’s that simple, either. If the company is planning to leverage TUF as a component of its international expansion strategy, then it can’t very well change the entire format right now.
With that said, I do think that each show is going to require some tinkering to fit in with its local market. Some of the crap that happened on the show in the US won’t fly in the UAE and China – or even markets like Australia.
UFC 115 PPV Prediction: 460,000
June 22, 2010
MMAPayout.com uses statistical regression analysis to match both the viewership numbers from Spike TV’s Countdown to UFC and the live gate figures reported by athletic commissions against the PPV buyrate numbers for each UFC event. The analysis produces a linear equation, which can then be used to take new Countdown or gate information and predict a PPV outcome.
The Data
We’ll be using both the Countdown to UFC and live gate figures from UFC 115 in this week’s regression analysis, but it’s worth noting that the nature of the UFC’s debut in Vancouver has made the live gate a less reliable indicator than normal (it’s generally the more volatile of the two):
Countdown to UFC 115: 453,000
Live gate: $4.2 million
The Prediction
The prediction process starts with the data set below; each symbol represents the PPV figure (vertical axis) and Countdown to UFC figure (horizontal axis) for an event in the last four years.
Then the numbers are plugged into a regression analysis formula to derive a linear line through the data set, which allows us to pick a certain Countdown figure (on the horizontal axis) and find the corresponding PPV prediction value (on the vertical axis):
When we plug in 453,000 viewers into the linear equation – represented by the red line above – we’re given a value of 371,000 PPV buys. The same process is performed with the live gate data and results in an estimate of 739,000. Then we plug the two figures into an equal weighted average (50% each, for now) to get our preliminary estimate:
- Countdown to UFC 115 prediction: 371,000
- UFC 115 live gate prediction: 739,000
- Equal weighted average prediction: 555,000
The Argument for 555,000:
- TUF 11: the Ultimate Fighter has always proven to be an effective marketing tool for PPV events and there’s no reason to believe this season (that experienced a slight up-tick in ratings compared to previous non-Kimbo seasons) was any less effective.
- Chuck Liddell: he’s the most popular fighter in UFC history and will always draw some interest. Coming off a full season of TUF promotion, the UFC likely managed to evoke a degree of nostalgia in its fans.
- PPV momentum: the UFC typically sells in cycles, and its currently running a streak of four shows in a row that have sold 500k or more. The many fans that tuned in for UFC 114 might have been persuaded to give Chuck Liddell one more chance.
- Media exposure: the UFC is at an all-time high where media exposure is concerned. ESPN is now dedicating one hour per week to the sport and the UFC is likely still benefiting from all the press it’s been getting from the release of its video game (even if the sales figures have failed to meet analyst expectations).
The Argument Against 555,000:
- Normally, a gate of $4.2 million would indicate serious North American interest in a fight card, but this is a special case where the live gate is more a reflection of, or testament to, the strength of the Vancouver (Canadian) market than anything else. The gate being so high probably skewed the weighted average prediction higher than what it should be.
- Chuck Liddell: part of Chuck’s appeal was his ability to back up his menacing look with downright scary punching power, but without the ability to knock people out, the entire package has become less appealing to the fans.
- PPV momentum: the upswing in UFC PPV buys has to stop or slow at some point, and UFC 115 is the most likely event for such a slow down to occur. Just look at the events from UFC 111 clear to UFC 118 – it’s easy to identify the weak link in the chain.
- The NBA Finals: the casual market was likely still tied up in an NBA Finals that turned into a barn burner of a series that went seven games.
- UFC 115 a non-title fight: it’s a fact that non-title fights far under-perform title fights (the average being 370k to ~600k).
Conclusion: 555,000 likely a little too high
The event will probably generate a buy rate above the 400,000 mark, because the UFC likely benefited from some of its momentum and some great media exposure in May. However, the argument against 555,000 is pretty strong and it would seem a long shot that this fight does that well (note: although Dave Meltzer is reporting trending estimates at 520k).
If we adjust the weighted average to reflect a more accurate allotment (something like 75-25 in favor of the Countdown show, which is typically what we do when one of the variables is skewed), we arrive at a final prediction of 460,000 buys.
TUF 11 Payouts: $406,000
June 22, 2010
The Staff at MMAJunkie.com are reporting that the total fighter payouts for The Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale came to $406,000. Also note that the attendance and gate for the event have been reported at 1,708 and $430,250.
Court McGee: $16,000 (includes $8,000 win bonus) def. Kris McCray: $8,000
Matt Hamill: $52,000 ($26,000 win bonus) def. Keith Jardine: $55,000
Chris Leben: $70,000 ($35,000 win bonus) def. Aaron Simpson: $13,000
Dennis Siver: $34,000 ($17,000 win bonus) def. Spencer Fisher: $26,000
Rich Attonito: $16,000 ($8,000 win bonus) def. Jamie Yager: $8,000
John Gunderson: $10,000 ($5,000 win bonus) def. Mark Holst: $6,000
Brad Tavares: $16,000 ($8,000 win bonus) def. Seth Baczynski: $8,000
Kyle Noke: $16,000 ($8,000 win bonus) def. Josh Bryant: $8,000
Chris Camozzi: $16,000 ($8000 win bonus) def. James Hammortree: $8,000
Travis Browne: $12,000 ($6,000 win bonus) def. James McSweeney: $8,000
TOTAL: $406,000
Bonus Awards:
Fight of the Night: Matt Hamill vs. Keith Jardine ($25,000 each)
KO of the Night: Chris Leben ($25,000)
Submission of the Night: Court McGee ($25,000)
Payout Perspective:
It wasn’t long ago that these events were paying $150,000 and the majority of it went to the headliners, but here we see that Hamill and Jardine received just 25% of the overall payout (granted, Leben made 70k). Additionally, no fighter made less than $6,000 in base and that’s twice as much as what the minimum used to be for some shows.
None of this factors in potential discretionary bonus pay or sponsorship money (which should, in part, be attributed to the UFC given that companies are usually sponsoring fighters to gain access to the UFC audience).
However, it’s also fair to say that fighter pay still has a way to go before every fighter is making a comfortable living. I question whether market forces will ever truly allow this to happen, but I also think the bottom pay for fighters has room to grow even under said market conditions.
Lipton Brisk and Chuck Liddell
June 21, 2010
Earlier this month, Lipton Brisk released a digital short story entitled The Way of the Brisk: The Untold Story featuring UFC legend Chuck Liddell.
Payout Perspective:
The segment is really quite well-done and the perfect example of what we talk about here at MMAPayout.com all the time: the actual marketing or sponsorship activation directed towards an MMA audience must utilize elements of the MMA lifestyle or culture to truly be effective. This is something that seems obvious, but you’d be surprised how little it really happens (to my constant frustration!).
In this case, Lipton has taken elements of its brand – the very successful puppet concept from the 90s and early 2000s – and applied it to one of the most popular fighters in UFC history. It has Chuck doing what he does best, but in a humorous setting.
I tend to think that if you’re going to use MMA in your marketing material it either has to be funny or an association drawn to the hard work, dedication, and intensity that MMA requires. There really isn’t a market for advertisements that involve the hardcore fighting elements of the sport and typically anything in that direction is just going to limit your exposure; there are still a lot of people “disgusted” by the very sight of MMA and if you use the hardcore stuff, you’re immediately limiting your reach.
Humor and hard work are safe and stable concepts to work with – everyone gets them. If done right, a marketing team can even get a response out of non-MMA fans with MMA-related advertising along these lines.
MMAPayout: Detailed Report From E3 & Strikeforce Los Angeles (Pt. 1)
June 18, 2010
Entering the Los Angeles Convention Center, it was clear to see who the biggest player in the gaming industry was purely based on location and visibility, and that was undoubtedly Electronic Arts.
EA’s spacious exhibit, which was located just a few feet from the main entrance, made it nearly impossible to miss them. Second to EA was probably Microsoft, coming off huge Monday announcements regarding the new re-designed XBOX and their highly anticipated accessory, the Xbox Kinect. Other companies with a presence in E3 were G4 TV, Nintendo, and PlayStation.
As I stepped into the venue, I was greeted by EA’s product marketing manager Randy Chase followed by several members of the EA Sports MMA development team, who have been working hard to polish the game and meet their October 19th release date. First thing I noticed was that the EA Sports MMA exhibit had a good amount of traffic, filled with mostly enthusiastic fans and gamers who were experiencing playing a MMA game for the very first time. The EA Sports MMA trailer above the game stations did a great job at captivating curious gamers. Those who were reluctant were encouraged to try the game by the EA team, and most appeared to have an enjoyable experience.
Game developers like Victor Lugo were more than happy to teach anyone playing the game how to perform different maneuvers and the small nuances of the game. The developers were very observant during this introduction phase, analyzing the player’s reactions and frustrations during their gaming experience. We also had Strikeforce fighters show up throughout the day. Frank Shamrock, Gilbert Melendez, and Mayhem Miller all stopped by and played against developers and willing gamers. Everyone had a pretty good time, and fighters did a great job at signing autographs or taking pictures with fans. It was an enjoyable experience all around.
What I learned from playing the EA Sports MMA Demo: Lenne Hardt announces the winner of the match when you play with the Japanese rule set, which will be a huge plus for the hardcore Japanese MMA fans. When playing with Unified Rules, Jimmy Lennon Jr. announces the winner as a Strikeforce event would. The graphics and the fluidity of the fighter movements, specifically when the fight is taken to the ground, are very nicely done. Compared to the UFC Undisputed control scheme, it is completely different and a bit more like EA’s Fight Night. If you have it in your DNA to mash buttons furiously, you will quickly gas out and most likely be stopped either by strikes or a submission, so there is a bit of a learning curve when transitioning from Undisputed to EA Sports MMA.
You can’t fault EA here though, they did a wonderful job selling the game to anyone willing to try it. As a result of having a successful E3 event, EA Sports MMA was nominated for “Best of E3″ by IGN, 1UP, and Kokatu, who are 3 of the most respected video game content providers in the industry. In total, EA Sports MMA was nominated for 8 “Best of E3″ awards when E3 wrapped up on Thursday.
Most interesting to me was the fact that just under the monitor screens of the game stations, EA placed Strikeforce Live promo material encouraging curious gamers to witness MMA live after the E3 event, persuading them with a percentage discount credit towards a ticket purchase for the event. To also promote the event, EA bought groups of tickets and gave them to fighters like Jason “Mayhem” Miller and “King” Mo Lawal to give away to fans. There was definitely some strong synergy between Strikeforce and EA during the E3 event, and later on during the Strikeforce Live event.
Something else that caught my attention was the new sponsor Strikeforce picked up for this event, which was GoDaddy.com. If you can recall, the last time GoDaddy was involved in MMA was when they were a huge sponsor for the now infamous Affliction third show that never took place. I was curious when they were going to jump back into MMA, and I got my answer as soon as I spotted their logo on the Strikeforce promo.
As it was time to close up E3 for the day, “Mayhem” and “El Nino” brawled one last time before they flipped the power switch.
Here is the cover of EA Sports MMA video game (courtesy of MiddleEasy), which was announced on EA’s Monday Presser:
Off to Nokia Theater for Strikeforce Live (Part 2)… to be continued.
Payout Perspective:
What was noticeable at E3 to me was how close EA and Strikeforce worked together to pull off this combination event. Having fighters stop by and meet the fans plus properly placing promotional material were great ways to get E3 attendees to experience live MMA via Strikeforce, and apparently, it worked. Where I was sitting, I overheard ticket purchasers mention that this was the first time they attended an MMA event and really didn’t know any of the fighters on the card. From observing the people around me, I can definitely say that there were a lot of new eyeballs there at the Nokia Theater that night to witness MMA in person. According to MMAJunkie, the event drew 5,259 attendees with a gate of 418K, which will have to be considered a success for a Wednesday Strikeforce show in Los Angeles sandwiched between NBA Final games. For comparison, the Strikeforce Miami show only drew 7K attendees for a 301K gate, though it did great rating numbers on Showtime.
Some may have criticized Strikeforce for only having a 6 fight card with only 2 prelims, but lets not forget that this event was unofficially held in conjunction to E3 (walking distance from LA Convention Center), which is why it was specifically planned with EA in this manner. If Strikeforce added any more prelims, the start time would have been bumped to 5 PM PST, which would have then overlapped with the Expo, since E3 was scheduled to be open from 10AM to 6 PM PST on that night. Strikeforce and EA then gave E3 attendees an hour to make their way to the Nokia Theater area and purchase tickets for the event, which started at 7 PM PST. They couldn’t fit any more prelims due to the Showtime broadcast start time of 8 PM PST/11 PM EST, which some East Coasters were already complaining was a tad bit too late for their taste. The safe bet here was to only schedule 2 prelim fights, which ended up giving the attendees 20 minutes to kill before the Showtime broadcast started, though I am glad to report that the prelims were good and exciting fights.
The bet with EA Sports MMA from Strikeforce’s point of view is that it will give a big boost to their brand and hopefully allow their fighters to become stars and household names in the near future, much like UFC Undisputed 2009 was able to do for the UFC. EA has already heard the praises for the game, and all that is left now is to see how well the game will sell, hoping that adding UFC’s Randy Couture and MMA great Fedor on the front cover will attract some extra mainstream eyeballs. Though Undisputed 2009 had a record-breaking debut, its follow-up release, UFC Undisputed 2010, is having slower than anticipated sales at the moment, which may be an indicator that MMA fans may not be looking to buy a new MMA game after Undisputed 2009 satisfied their urge for a quality MMA title. EA does offer a great deal of features and game-play that Undisputed does not, but will EA’s name be able to sell enough copies to satisfy the game’s expectations, grow the Strikeforce brand, and allow their fighters to become more of a household name? The good news is that from what I witnessed on Wednesday, the game release will generate a good amount of buzz. EA has a great marketing and advertising campaign going, not to mention a nice budget for games it gets firmly behind. From everything that I saw on Wednesday, they are clearly behind MMA, EA Sports MMA, and Strikeforce.
Strikeforce: Los Angeles Draws Gate of $418,000
June 18, 2010
The Staff at MMAJunkie.com are reporting that Strikeforce: Los Angeles drew a paid attendance of 5,529 for a gate of $418, 061 last night for an event featuring Renato Sobral vs. Robby Lawler.
Strikeforce CEO Scott Coker announced the figure at the post-event press conference while reporting a live gate of $418,061.
The available seats appeared nearly full during the event, though Coker said the event was not a sellout, though the Strikeforce exec estimated the building was “about 90 percent” full in its scaled-down configuration.
Payout Perspective:
The gate is lower than previous Strikeforce on Showtime cards, but if you look at the per ticket averages, it seems to have drawn fairly well.
As a whole, the event was excellent and Strikeforce likely won itself some new fans. However, we’ll have to wait and see how well-viewed the broadcast was (which is one of Strikeforce’s problems). It doesn’t get a ton of exposure on Showtime; so, even if the fights are great, the broadcast doesn’t benefit from the same increase potential that a more widely viewed cable network like Spike or Versus might afford.
This problem is then compounded by the infrequency in Strikeforce’s communication with the media and fans. It doesn’t do enough to generate interest in the majority of the MMA fanbase, let alone casuals. Plus, the company will nearly be top-of-mind after a great event like last night’s, but then seemingly vanish off of the face of the earth for a few weeks (…or six).
Hopefully, this card and the Fedor-Werdum fight can help them generate some sustained momentum moving into this summer.
UFC Trainer Announced at E3
June 17, 2010
Brendan Sinclair of Gamespot has reported that THQ unveiled its plans for a new UFC video game this week at E3, the industry’s largest and most famous showcase conference. The game, tentatively called UFC Trainer, will utilize the latest in motion sensor technology on the Wii, Xbox 360, and PS3 consoles to allow players to use their own movements to control the actions of their on-screen fighters.
Payout Perspective:
This is one of those ideas that sounds really great in theory, but I question how well it’s actually going to translate into the game. I’ll reserve judgment until gamers get to test this thing out, but color me skeptical; it seems quite difficult to accurately mimic the contact involved between two fighters in MMA (especially juxtaposed to the way you might be able to mimic the movement in a first-person shooter).
Moreover, I wonder if the release of this game might also cannibalize sales of the Undisputed title; itself, currently suffering from a bit of the sophomore jinx.
