UFC 108 PPV Prediction: 444,000 Buys
January 5, 2010
A weighted average statistical regression analysis of two different variables – viewership in Countdown to UFC and live gate revenue across 30-40 events – was used to derive a linear equation that allows us to input UFC 108’s respective Countdown viewership (559,000) and live gate revenue ($2 million) in order to determine an expected buyrate figure for the event:
- Countdown Prediction: 488,000
- Live Gate: 400,000
- Weighted average: 444,000 buys
The range is a pretty good estimate of where the PPV is expected to land – even Dana White has commented that he expects the show to do 400-500k. You may remember the range was pretty large last time, but that was seemingly the result of the company’s lowest North American gate in nearly two years skewing the real interest for the show.
As always, this is just an estimate. The weighted average prediction could fluctuate up or down depending on any number of the following factors:
+ The feel-good holiday buzz where consumers spend less conservatively than at other points in the year.
+ Rashad Evans certainly gained more awareness as the result of his stint on TUF, but it would have had even more of an effect on the PPV had he fought Rampage.
– The “cursed” nature of the card may have led some to avoid the purchase altogether – considering what it was meant to be versus what it actually became.
– The event didn’t feature a title fight.
– Disclosed fight bonuses have been a proxy for the UFC’s expectations of what an event will do, and it might be telling that these bonuses are lower than normal ($50,000 compared to $65,000 or $70,000 in previous events like 107 and 106 respectively).