as always replace the “xx” with “tt”.

Merry Christmas all, no sense getting into a huge debate over guessed numbers.

Here is some comments i found real quick.
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USA Today reported Monday that early indications from cable companies were that the scheduled 12-round light-welterweight bout could get as many as two million buys.

Co-promoter Bob Arum was delighted with the figures especially as initial estimates were suggesting about one million boxing fans would shell out their cash.

“We know based on those early numbers and based on experience the event will perform extremely well. If I had to guess, anywhere between 1.6 million and two million homes, which is a home run,” he said.

The record for a PPV event is the 2.4 million buys for ‘Golden Boy’ Oscar De La Hoya’s May 2007 fight with Floyd Mayweather Jr., which generated a staggering $134 million in revenue.

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By Johnny Benz The excellent Pay Per View Numbers that were reported by HBO shortly after Oscar De La Hoya lost a split decision to Floyd Mayweather Jr., back in the month of May, were $2.15 million pay-per-view buys. That related to $120 million in PPV revenue, plus a live gate just shy of $19 million and total gross receipts of about $150 million that shattered every boxing box office record. Now Dan Rafael on behalf of ESPN is reporting in his Thursday column that the [b] numbers have been revised by HBO and the new numbers are even more impressive than first published [/b], improving the record. Rafael reports in his article: “HBO said with the buys now fully accounted for, the fight actually generated 2.4 million buys and $134.4 million in domestic PPV revenue, bringing the total revenue for the event to approximately $165 million.” Quoted by ESPN, HBO PPV chief Mark Taffet stated: “It is common for early pay-per-view tallies to rise once all the buys are counted, but…

The UFC has never released pay per view numbers because the numbers seemingly come in at a snails pace over as much as a 9 month period. I work in cable and advertising there really are only trending numbers based off of history.

620k is a great number and it could actually come up as much as 650 or 660 or as low as 575 or 580. Being off by 50k in one direction or the other isnt so bad

Can you link a story where Dana confirms 1.6? It’s not that I don’t believe you, I can just only find stories where he confirms 1.5 + due to the base jumping stunt he’s going to do, but didn’t say a specific number.

Let’s look at the bigger picture, even if you want to say Meltzer is 20% off mostly, and everyone thinks he always overestimates, that’s still roughly 500k in buys, which is still good, especially considering it ended up being an entertaining card.

Also, how does everyone know Meltzer is wrong? The UFC doesn’t release their PPV numbers, so any other source you guys are using to compare Meltzer’s ‘wrong’ numbers are every bit, if not more due to Meltzer’s years of PPV sources, as questionable.

There is no upside in him inflating numbers. A good way to tell might be looking at early WWE PPV projections if he releases those because I believe since WWE is publicly traded they end up releasing PPV numbers in some of their public reports. However, hearing interviews with wrestlers, the final number takes months to get in, because that’s when the companies get their money from the broadcasters and the top end wrestlers get their bonuses. It’s basically what crippled ECW if anyone knows that story. They went to the PPV model, actually had some OK buys but were bouncing checks because they didn’t get paid on their PPVs for many months after.

you need to learn more about the subject you talk about. Even Dana himself dont know the numbers of PPV buys. There is NO exact number for a very long time. PPV buys are always rolling in. Dana himself said it takes at least 6 months to get close to the final numbers and even then there are PPVs coming in. There is not just one Satellite Provider, there are many. There isnt just one cable provider there are hundreds of smaller local companies that have to report their buys ever so often. This takes a long time for all these number to be reported back to the parent companies.

Noone wants to wait 6 months for a better idea of the final numbers of a PPV. We are 2 weeks or so away from 107 and he has already released numbers. Im sure there will be a few more PPV buys added to the final numbers but not that many. Most PPVs providers are still showing replays you can buy.

Metger has been wrong before but not very often. He relys on sources inside many providers. If one of those sources make a mistake it can make his numbers way off. But this is very rare. I have followed his and other PPV numbers for many many years and he is the most reliable bar none. You can think your guess’ are just as good but they are not.