UFC 106 Poised for Huge PPV Numbers
October 14, 2009
As MMAPayout has discussed, the Brock Lesnar/Shane Carwin and Tito Ortiz/Forrest Griffin co-main event features of UFC 106 have placed the ppv at the center of UFC’s final quarter financials. My colleague Kelsey is speaking in terms of 1,000,000+ buys for UFC 106, but I want to take it further and say that I predict 1.3 million to 1.5 million buys for this ppv (so basically I’m expecting it to do better than the three previous pay-per-views combined).
At this point I believe Brock Lesnar himself is good for 1,000,000 buys against just about anyone, and indeed the hardly-well known Shane Carwin is an opponent who could put that theory to the test. When you take into account the return of Tito Ortiz, who is no longer scheduled to fight the overmatched Mark Coleman but instead will have a rematch with ultra-popular Forrest Griffin, we’re looking at significantly more than 1,000,000 buys.
I’d say this show is easily worth 1.5 million buys except for two questions rolling in my head: (i) Carwin’s aforementioned lack of name recognition and (ii) whether Forrest Griffin will remain quite the ppv draw he was after his lamentable (lack of) performance against Anderson Silva.
Still, I believe circumstances are militating towards the 1.5 million mark. UFC 100 and 101 both did great numbers, but 101, which took place in August, will seem like forever ago by the time 106 rolls around on November 21. It will have been a full quarter of a year since the last “mega” show took place. MMA fans are thirsting for a big UFC show — I know because I hear such talk all the time amongst friends — and 106 is really the only one that fits the mold with Rampage/Rashad on hold for now.