UFC 106 Poised for Huge PPV Numbers

October 14, 2009

As MMAPayout has discussed, the Brock Lesnar/Shane Carwin and Tito Ortiz/Forrest Griffin co-main event features of UFC 106 have placed the ppv at the center of UFC’s final quarter financials.  My colleague Kelsey is speaking in terms of 1,000,000+ buys for UFC 106, but I want to take it further and say that I predict 1.3 million to 1.5 million buys for this ppv (so basically I’m expecting it to do better than the three previous pay-per-views combined).

At this point I believe Brock Lesnar himself is good for 1,000,000 buys against just about anyone, and indeed the hardly-well known Shane Carwin is an opponent who could put that theory to the test.  When you take into account the return of Tito Ortiz, who is no longer scheduled to fight the overmatched Mark Coleman but instead will have a rematch with ultra-popular Forrest Griffin, we’re looking at significantly more than 1,000,000 buys. 

I’d say this show is easily worth 1.5 million buys except for two questions rolling in my head: (i) Carwin’s aforementioned lack of name recognition and (ii) whether Forrest Griffin will remain quite the ppv draw he was after his lamentable (lack of) performance against Anderson Silva.

Still, I believe circumstances are militating towards the 1.5 million mark.  UFC 100 and 101 both did great numbers, but 101, which took place in August, will seem like forever ago by the time 106 rolls around on November 21.  It will have been a full quarter of a year since the last “mega” show took place.  MMA fans are thirsting for a big UFC show — I know because I hear such talk all the time amongst friends — and 106 is really the only one that fits the mold with Rampage/Rashad on hold for now.

7 Responses to “UFC 106 Poised for Huge PPV Numbers”

  1. mma guru on October 14th, 2009 7:43 PM

    Gonna get interesting when Brock loses.

  2. mma guru on October 14th, 2009 8:02 PM

    Oh no, Kimbo may live to fight again. Anyone else think this Ultimate Fighter show is getting desperate? Nice altercation between Rashed and Rampage.

  3. Brain Smasher on October 14th, 2009 9:40 PM

    I agree with he numbers but in the end there are a lot of factors that’s come into play. 1.5 is a number that UFC 100 was rumored to barely break. Is the UFC going to put as much advertising into 106 as 100? 100 was a milestone that received mainstream recognition solely for that reason. 106 wont have that advantage. Im not sure Brock is good for an automatic 1 million buys. I think 800 is more accurate. But with the cast of fighters, and a good push from the UFC. I expect at least 1.2.

    Its also interesting to see what effect if any Tito’s appearance on “The Apprentice” will have on his popularity. He was always a big draw. But has yet to step in the cage since being in front of 10-20 million viewers on that show. Its been a long time. But I’m sure it re-inspired some old MMA fans or Tito fans who may not have been buying the PPVs. We will see. Although it will be hard to pin point who is responsible for what PPV Buys.

  4. Joseph on October 15th, 2009 11:15 AM

    800K – 1200K. It will not do better or equivalent to UFC 100.

  5. mmafightnight on October 15th, 2009 1:13 PM

    UFC 104 might not even break 500K and that’s with their LHW Champ. Ticket sales are abismal – 6000 tickets sold so far for a UFC event is not great.

    UFC 105 is in London so that’ll be lucky to get 400K buys so UFC 106 will need to do at least 1 million to keep the upper brass happy.

  6. David Wolf on October 15th, 2009 1:29 PM

    105 is scheduled to air on tape delay on Spike, so ppv buys will not be a factor in that one.

    I’m not too certain 104 is going to break 400,000 buys, though word is that the Countdown episode is a good one, and that can be a factor in the buys.

    Joseph — I agree that 106 will not equal or surpass 100.

  7. Brain Smasher on October 15th, 2009 4:56 PM

    Agree. I do think 106 is the better card. And should be more exciting. Brock will KO Carwin. Probably on the feet. Hazelette will fluster Karo on the feet and then submit him on the ground with a triangle choke. Tito vs Forrest is just to close to call.

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