Comments on: UFC 104 Buyrate Prediction: 398,000 http://mmapayout.com/2009/10/ufc-104-buyrate-prediction-398000/ Thu, 09 Feb 2012 03:34:23 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Ufc 104 projected to do 398,000 buys - Sherdog Mixed Martial Arts Forums http://mmapayout.com/2009/10/ufc-104-buyrate-prediction-398000/comment-page-1/#comment-823 Ufc 104 projected to do 398,000 buys - Sherdog Mixed Martial Arts Forums Sun, 01 Nov 2009 12:29:24 +0000 http://mmapayout.com/?p=6356#comment-823 [...] 104 projected to do 398,000 buys UFC 104 Buyrate Prediction: 398,000 : MMAPayout.com: The Business of MMA That is much lower than I was expecting I had 104 at around [...] [...] 104 projected to do 398,000 buys UFC 104 Buyrate Prediction: 398,000 : MMAPayout.com: The Business of MMA That is much lower than I was expecting I had 104 at around [...]

]]> By: Ufc 104 projected to do 398,000 buys - Sherdog Mixed Martial Arts Forums http://mmapayout.com/2009/10/ufc-104-buyrate-prediction-398000/comment-page-1/#comment-822 Ufc 104 projected to do 398,000 buys - Sherdog Mixed Martial Arts Forums Sun, 01 Nov 2009 12:24:12 +0000 http://mmapayout.com/?p=6356#comment-822 [...] 104 projected to do 398,000 buys UFC 104 Buyrate Prediction: 398,000 : MMAPayout.com: The Business of MMA That is much lowert than I was expecting I had 104 at around [...] [...] 104 projected to do 398,000 buys UFC 104 Buyrate Prediction: 398,000 : MMAPayout.com: The Business of MMA That is much lowert than I was expecting I had 104 at around [...]

]]> By: Kelsey Philpott http://mmapayout.com/2009/10/ufc-104-buyrate-prediction-398000/comment-page-1/#comment-821 Kelsey Philpott Thu, 29 Oct 2009 03:34:18 +0000 http://mmapayout.com/?p=6356#comment-821 NamK: I've got a pretty intense UFC event log going that tracks just about every stat you can imagine. I wanted to get this debut out of the way and a few correct range predictions under my belt before I started getting fancy. With that said, separating some of the outliers and working backward is a good idea. It would be easier to do that with someone like Liddell (where his sample size is larger than Lesnar's). Nonetheless, it should be doable. Keep the ideas coming. NamK:

I’ve got a pretty intense UFC event log going that tracks just about every stat you can imagine. I wanted to get this debut out of the way and a few correct range predictions under my belt before I started getting fancy.

With that said, separating some of the outliers and working backward is a good idea. It would be easier to do that with someone like Liddell (where his sample size is larger than Lesnar’s). Nonetheless, it should be doable.

Keep the ideas coming.

]]> By: AmericanPankration http://mmapayout.com/2009/10/ufc-104-buyrate-prediction-398000/comment-page-1/#comment-820 AmericanPankration Thu, 29 Oct 2009 02:17:59 +0000 http://mmapayout.com/?p=6356#comment-820 450K minimum. Machida came off three dominant, publicized victories. A win over tito put his name on the board, got people curious. His knock-out of silva solidified the curiosity of main-stream fans. Then his incredible performance over Evans made him a decent star, with decent draw power. The ufc is phenomenally smart with hyping selected fighters. The karate style of Machida made him even more marketable. Shogun would have been the buy downfall, but he knocked out liddell in a card I believe sold close to 700,000 ppv. Conclusion: buys are higher then an estimated first glance would give. I say 450-490k. Lets see... 450K minimum. Machida came off three dominant, publicized victories. A win over tito put his name on the board, got people curious. His knock-out of silva solidified the curiosity of main-stream fans. Then his incredible performance over Evans made him a decent star, with decent draw power. The ufc is phenomenally smart with hyping selected fighters. The karate style of Machida made him even more marketable. Shogun would have been the buy downfall, but he knocked out liddell in a card I believe sold close to 700,000 ppv. Conclusion: buys are higher then an estimated first glance would give. I say 450-490k. Lets see…

]]> By: Brain Smasher http://mmapayout.com/2009/10/ufc-104-buyrate-prediction-398000/comment-page-1/#comment-819 Brain Smasher Wed, 28 Oct 2009 06:57:12 +0000 http://mmapayout.com/?p=6356#comment-819 Eddie The UFC could sell 300,000 PPVs with all black ads with just the letters U F C on it. No names or anything. Guru I dont know who Viewers Choice is. But i assume they are not a privately owned company running PPVs. Zuffa dont release the numbers because they dont have to. The UFC belongs to them. Its like letting someone look in your check book. Honestly some of the numbers people guess are way more than 10% off. Metger is the best source for PPV buys but there is events where he clearly is drawing conclusions with only seeing small pieces of the puzzle(PPVs are reported by many different cable and satelite companies. He dont have access to all of them and the ones he does some take a long time to come in.) To prove how inaccurate he can be sometimes. Look at UFC 100. He made public at least 3 numbers. Starting blow 900K, then 1 million, then kept raising it. Eddie

The UFC could sell 300,000 PPVs with all black ads with just the letters U F C on it. No names or anything.

Guru

I dont know who Viewers Choice is. But i assume they are not a privately owned company running PPVs. Zuffa dont release the numbers because they dont have to. The UFC belongs to them. Its like letting someone look in your check book. Honestly some of the numbers people guess are way more than 10% off. Metger is the best source for PPV buys but there is events where he clearly is drawing conclusions with only seeing small pieces of the puzzle(PPVs are reported by many different cable and satelite companies. He dont have access to all of them and the ones he does some take a long time to come in.) To prove how inaccurate he can be sometimes. Look at UFC 100. He made public at least 3 numbers. Starting blow 900K, then 1 million, then kept raising it.

]]> By: mma guru http://mmapayout.com/2009/10/ufc-104-buyrate-prediction-398000/comment-page-1/#comment-818 mma guru Wed, 28 Oct 2009 00:01:01 +0000 http://mmapayout.com/?p=6356#comment-818 unfortunately even when we get the unofficial number it's just hearsay. my guess is true numbers are likely anywhere from 10% less than posted numbers by sources such as meltzer. i wonder why the actual numbers never get posted if companies like viewers choice are public. it really makes little sense. unfortunately even when we get the unofficial number it’s just hearsay. my guess is true numbers are likely anywhere from 10% less than posted numbers by sources such as meltzer. i wonder why the actual numbers never get posted if companies like viewers choice are public. it really makes little sense.

]]> By: eDDie http://mmapayout.com/2009/10/ufc-104-buyrate-prediction-398000/comment-page-1/#comment-817 eDDie Tue, 27 Oct 2009 22:49:20 +0000 http://mmapayout.com/?p=6356#comment-817 I say 275,000 to 316,000. I say 275,000 to 316,000.

]]> By: Joseph http://mmapayout.com/2009/10/ufc-104-buyrate-prediction-398000/comment-page-1/#comment-816 Joseph Tue, 27 Oct 2009 20:28:28 +0000 http://mmapayout.com/?p=6356#comment-816 400K-600K has always been my estimate for this card. I only go as high as 600K because it is unknown what type of fan base Tito and Forrest still have after long layoffs for Tito or the terrible performance from Forrest. 0-4-1 is the combined record from their last 5 fights. 400K-600K has always been my estimate for this card. I only go as high as 600K because it is unknown what type of fan base Tito and Forrest still have after long layoffs for Tito or the terrible performance from Forrest. 0-4-1 is the combined record from their last 5 fights.

]]> By: Namk http://mmapayout.com/2009/10/ufc-104-buyrate-prediction-398000/comment-page-1/#comment-815 Namk Tue, 27 Oct 2009 17:42:43 +0000 http://mmapayout.com/?p=6356#comment-815 Did you consider locating the values (events) that deviate with statistical significance from the set. And from there backtrack to find variables to consider, in other words common denominators. .. such as whether or not Brock Lesnar was on the card, title fights headliners etc... Those are obviously low hanging fruits but there are sure to be others, such as concurrent programming that caters the same target audience. Thanks for an interesting view on the MMA world. Keep up the good work! Did you consider locating the values (events) that deviate with statistical significance from the set. And from there backtrack to find variables to consider, in other words common denominators. .. such as whether or not Brock Lesnar was on the card, title fights headliners etc… Those are obviously low hanging fruits but there are sure to be others, such as concurrent programming that caters the same target audience.

Thanks for an interesting view on the MMA world. Keep up the good work!

]]> By: mma guru http://mmapayout.com/2009/10/ufc-104-buyrate-prediction-398000/comment-page-1/#comment-814 mma guru Tue, 27 Oct 2009 14:25:40 +0000 http://mmapayout.com/?p=6356#comment-814 Without using the math and using a hunch, I'd guess 375K to 400K as well, possibly even lower as there was no star power anywhere on that card. Without using the math and using a hunch, I’d guess 375K to 400K as well, possibly even lower as there was no star power anywhere on that card.

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