Brock Lesnar Out of UFC 106, PPV Buy Projections Back to Earth
October 26, 2009
Considering the fantastic year UFC was having — at least through the end of the summer – autumn must thus far feel like hell for Dana White. First he and Rampage had a very public disagreement over Rampage’s pulling out of the Rashad fight in favor of acting in a movie, then this past weekend the UFC 104 main event was marred by a controversial decision, and now, two days later, Kevin Iole reports that Brock Lesnar has been sick for several weeks and has consequently pulled out of his scheduled November 21 title defense against Shane Carwin at UFC 106:
UFC president Dana White confirmed the news to Yahoo! Sports. White said Lesnar has been ill for more than three-and-a-half weeks and unable to train. With the bout at UFC 106 less than a month away, Lesnar was forced to postpone the title defense.
“He said he’s never been this sick in his life,” White said. “He said it’s been going on for a long time and he just hasn’t been able to shake it.”
White said he does not believe Lesnar had the H1N1 virus, commonly known as swine flu.
Payout Perspective:
All things are relative, and no matter what happens through year’s end, this is going to be another great year for UFC on paper, but in light of what Zuffa must have been counting on about a month ago — 1,000,000+ buy pay-per-views in November and December — there must be some sense of disappointment among the Zuffa family.
UFC 106, with Tito and Forrest on top, should still do better than average business. My prediction of 1.3 – 1.5 million buys is going to have to drop to 650,00 – 700,000, that is presuming UFC doesn’t book an alternate co-main event to shake up the equation again.
Really, considering the trouble UFC has had booking top-level fights for the last few months of the year, the chances of a game-changing replacement main event being put together at this late date are slim indeed.
18 Responses to “Brock Lesnar Out of UFC 106, PPV Buy Projections Back to Earth”
Got something to say?
“First he and Rampage had a very public disagreement over Rampage’s pulling out of the Rashad fight in favor of acting in a movie……”
On a first-name basis, are we?
Just kidding.
I think this is about the last hurrah for either Forrest or Tito as a big draw, depending upon who loses.
lol. I should probably stick with either last names or first and last names together when writing articles, but I usually just go with what sounds right to my ear.
400K-600K.
People would really have to have stopped caring about Griffin after the Anderson Silva destruction if this were to do 400,000. Can’t see it falling below 600,00, really.
That card should be free now, no way will it do 700k PPV buys unless UFC fans are even more stupid then what previously thought.
November 14 is already free and Tito/Forrest is going to do the best number since August. Tito’s return in a rematch against Forrest is going to do better than average numbers.
Anyone find it odd that Lesnar was just at the Vikings game last week and he seemed perfectly fine to blow the ceremonial horn?
Dana:
“He said he’s never been this sick in his life,” White said. “He said it’s been going on for a long time and he just hasn’t been able to shake it.”
http://www.youtube.com/v/SBIgvbt2YQo&
David, there was no way that event would have gotten 1.3 million buys – the hype is over, UFC is on a slight decline after UFC 100. We still don’t have an accurate picture of how well that PPV did. Some claim 1.7 million, others claim under 1.5. Dana is yet to jump off that building. If I was a betting man, I would guess this Saturday’s PPV did at most 375K.
If I were you guys, I’d keep my eye closely on Strikeforce and start factoring in what free high level MMA will do to UFC and their PPV buy rates. Now that’s an article worth reading.
In my opinion the Rua/Machida result will work in favor of the UFC… now they can run the match on Spike in a few months and then promote the hell out of the rematch.
stan, what if they gave us the fight for free on spike like they did tito vs ken. that would be a rating on the level of competing with kimbo
Yeah, but I’m pretty sure UFC’s current model has them making a ton more money through PPV rather than anything they have set up on Spike
Tito/Forrest would do well on free television, but it wouldn’t draw Kimbo ratings. Tito/Ken had a certain dynamic — the at least surface appearance that the guys hated each other — that Tito/Forrest lacks. I’m not sure Tito/Forrest would draw higher ratings than Couture/Vera will do on November 14.
My guess is that Strikeforce’s free November 7 show will have no material effect on UFC’s buyrate two weeks later.
Lesnar was also at a recent Metalica concert in Mpls!
His budy is an old Vikings player who is now a DJ at a local stattion and
he said this morning Lesnar was at a concert recently also.
Lesnar being my favorite fighter in all i dont usually bash, but
I’m getting the feeling he was sick about a month ago the normal stuff
stopped training for a few days and his heart is just not into it right now.
Probably just a little worn out is my guess.
Tim. being to sick to train is alot different than being to sick to go out in public imo.it sounds like he tried to get back into training a few days ago, but kept fatiguing quick. no sense in having another “sick” fighter (see big nog) get destroyed b/c he couldn’t train properly.
Brent I understand what your saying, but when you say you are sicker then you have ever been and your in training for a million dollar fight you probably shouldnt be going to concerts and football games on appearance. If in deed you are that sick.
Lesnar so sick that he’s at a Vikings game. There’s something rotten in Denmark.
ufc seems very shady..
guru, I know you say UFC is on a slight decline, and probably they are, but don’t forget, they haven’t played a MAJOR trump card in a network deal, especially if it ends up being on ESPN or ABC.
I will tend to believe Lesnar, all the sources Meltzer is reporting is saying he is legit sick, and as it’s been pointed out being well enough to go to a Vikings game or a Metallica concert is so far separated from being well enough to do a full on training camp for a HW title fight. He could have something along the lines of mono where you are very sick for awhile, but then you can walk around and do some things, but when you try to exert yourself to much you become fatigued very quickly.
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