Are Boxing and MMA Actually Competitors?
December 19, 2007
There is growing evidence suggesting that the boxing v. MMA storyline, while convenient and intuitively true, may not be factually supported:
- SecondsOut.com reported that research showed that only about 20% of those in attendance at UFC events have ever attended a boxing match, and that those that had tended to return to boxing.
- Dave Meltzer reported that the LA Times recently reported that the cable companies found in a survey that only 3-5% of people who had ordered a boxing pay-per-view in 2007 had ordered a UFC event.
- According to Meltzer, in 1995 the UFC internally believed that 50-60% of its audience came directly from pro wrestling. Boxing was not considered competition unless it was Tyson because of his crossover appeal. As evidence, Meltzer pointed out that when the UFC went head-to-head with WWE Raw in 2005 there was a significant quarter hour swing between the two programs.
- The lack of competition is further evidenced by the fact that the TUF 6 Finale did a 1.87 rating v. Mayweather-Hatton, peaking at 2.10 with 2.9 million viewers going head-to-head with the Mayweather-Hatton fight itself.
A Boxing Fan Looks at MMA
December 18, 2007
Thomas Hauser, a well known boxing writer and biographer of Muhammad Ali, recently wrote an interesting feature at SecondsOut.com, A Boxing Fan Looks at MMA. The feature checks in at almost 5,000 words and is well worth reading in its entirety. The basic premise is that boxing is in trouble despite it’s big year and that MMA is rising, although the two can co-exist. Some of the highlights:
- “It’s easier for the average person to identify with MMA than with professional boxing,†Donald Zuckerman (an early MMA entrepreneur) said ten years ago. “There are more than 15,000 martial arts dojos in the United States, and the number of gyms devoted to boxing is diminishing. Every few years, Hollywood produces one boxing movie, but there are dozens of martial arts films annually. Most people have never engaged in a fight with regular boxing rules. But at one time or another, even if it was only on the playground in grade school, virtually everyone has engaged in some form of fighting.”
- Popularity in terms of Google hits: 1-De La Hoya, 2-Pacquiao, 3-Mayweather, 4-Ortiz, 5-Liddell, 6-Couture, all significantly more popular than Hopkins, Pavlik, and Klitshcko.
- “Success sometimes breeds resentment, and UFC has its share of enemies. Rival promoters have grumbled about anti-competitive acts such as the alleged use of financial muscle (e.g. advertising dollars) to discourage media coverage of competitors’ events. They also claim that UFC marketing includes papering the house for promotions and giving cash to buyers who go to stores and purchase multiple copies of UFC DVDs. One competitor expresses his feelings with the observation, “You can’t spell ‘fuck’ without a U, an F, and a C.—
- “UFC has a marketing line: “Boxing is your grandfather’s sport.†But research shows that only about twenty percent of those who attend UFC events have ever been to a boxing match, and these people tend to return to boxing. On the other hand, there’s a progression from pro wrestling to the UFC that occurs when a wrestling fan is around age eighteen. If boxing could get these fans to attend a boxing match, they might like it.”
- “HBO (which televises virtually all of boxing’s major pay-per-view fights) says its studies show that undercards have little effect on PPV buys. Maybe that’s because fans have been conditioned to expect lousy pay-per-view undercards. That’s a great way to build a fan base: “You, the buying public, don’t care what’s on the undercard, so we’re going to save money and show you boring one-sided fights.—
- “HBO is trumpeting the fact that 2007 has seen a year of record-high pay-per-view buys. But it has also been a year of record-low HBO World Championship Boxing ratings. Moreover, there has been little correlation between the license fees that HBO pays for fights and the ratings they get.”
- “UFC is already in negotiations with Yahoo to distribute its matches over the Internet on a pay-per-view basis. Eventually, pay-per-view boxing will move to the Internet in a significant way. But when it gets there, it will find that MMA has beaten it to the punch. And the danger for HBO is that, if it doesn’t change quickly, its boxing program (and much more) could be eclipsed by new technologies the same way that IBM was eclipsed by Microsoft.”
- “Sooner or later, UFC will experience a similar tragedy. Indeed, there’s a school of thought that, while professional wrestling controls the production of its telecasts so fans will forget that wrestling is fake, UFC controls its telecasts so fans will lose sight of the true nature of the physical damage being done. UFC’s cameras rarely linger on a combatant who is bleeding profusely or lying unconscious on the octagonal matt.”
- “More managers and agents are coming into the MMA business, which means less profit for promoters. Randy Couture is nearing the end of his career. Chuck Liddell has lost his last two fights. Tito Ortiz hasn’t held a belt in four years. Few, if any, mainstream sponsors want their logo on a ring canvas that’s splattered with blood.”
FULL ARTICLE: A Boxing Fan Looks at MMA
Flash: Early Mayweather-Hatton Numbers Well Below Expectations
December 17, 2007
Dave Meltzer is reporting that the preliminary numbers for the Mayweather-Hatton pay-per-view came in at 850,000 buys, well short of the 1.5 million buys projected by Golden Boy Promotions.
Blood Sport Equals Big Ratings for CNBC
December 17, 2007
CNBC scored big in the ratings with last week’s special Ultimate Fighting: From Blood Sport to Big Time. The program was the highest rated first airing of a documentary ever on CNBC in the age 25-54 demographic with 221,000 viewers in the demo. It was also the highest rated premiere in total households since July’s documentary Big Mac: Inside the McDonald’s Empire with 320,000 total households. The repeat also did well.
The program re-airs tonight at 9PM and 12AM eastern on CNBC.
Details on Xyience's UFC Sponsorship
December 17, 2007
Dave Meltzer reported in the most recent Wrestling Observer Newsletter that the new three-year Xyience sponsorship agreement with the UFC is worth a total of $32.14 million, assuming the company lasts through the term of the contract. In 2006, the company’s total losses before taxes were $55,837,653.65 million on $22,475,964.88 in total sales. The loss is accounted for by the $42.2 million spent on marketing the product as product costs were only roughly $14 million.
TUF 6 Finale Payouts w/ Bonuses
December 17, 2007
- Jonathan Goulet ($14,000) d. Paul Georgieff ($8,000)
- Roman Mitichyan ($16,000) d. Dorian Price ($8,000)
- Matt Arroyo ($31,000+) d. John Kolosci ($8,000)
- Troy Mandaloniz ($16,000) d. Richie Hightower ($8,000)
- Ben Saunders ($16,000) d. Dan Barrera ($8,000)
- George Sotiropoulos ($16,000) d. Billy Miles ($8,000)
- John Koppenhaver ($46,000++) d. Jared Rollins ($23,000+)
- Mac Danzig ($16,000) d. Tommy Speer ($8,000)
- Roger Huerta ($68,000++) d. Clay Guida ($41,000++)
+ = bonus included, bonus breakdown:
- Arroyo – $15,000 for best submission
- Koppenhaver – $15,000 for best knockout, $15,000 for fight of the night
- Rollins – $15,000 for fight of the night
- Huerta – $30,000 for fight of the night
- Guida – $30,000 for fight of the night
SOURCE: Wrestling Observer Newsletter
Open the Door: Couture-Fedor, MMA As a Whole, Will Move Forward, With or Without the UFC
December 17, 2007
Randy Couture stole the show last night at HDNet Fights’ Reckless Abandon. The reigning UFC Heavyweight Champion made public his intention to fight Fedor next year, with or without the UFC. “I am not retired,” said Couture. “I am waiting for my UFC contract to expire. I will fight Fedor Emelianenko.” The statement was Couture’s most forceful and emphatic yet regarding his desire to fight Fedor.
“Unless the UFC wants to do a co-promotion with M-1 and make the Fedor fight happen, I’m going to have to wait until my contract expires,” Couture said. Emelianenko recently echoed similar thoughts to MMAWeekly.com about the potential fight, saying that “the only obstacle is Dana.” Couture stated that his promotional contract with Zuffa expires in July while his employment contract expires in October. That would setup Couture v. Emelianenko in late 2008.
The statement comes on the heels of rumors that settlement talks between the UFC and Couture have reached an impasse. In the December 17 issue of the Wrestling Observer Newsletter, Dave Meltzer speculated that Couture’s recent public statements about slowing down and enjoying life suggested that he was “mentally accepting that his career may be over.”
Meltzer went on to state that sources close to the situation indicated that two things had become clear in settlement negotiations between Couture and Zuffa: Couture is not willing to fight for the UFC and the UFC is willing to do everything in its power to prevent him from fighting outside of the promotion. In light of these developments, sources said the odds of Fedor-Couture happening had diminished from 30% to 5%.
Couture’s most recent statement seems to set the stage for an industry showdown pitting the UFC’s exclusive promotional model against the more cooperative open door policy found in boxing and championed by virtually every MMA promoter outside of Zuffa. Co-promotion is almost universally accepted as the future of the industry, however, Zuffa has risen to power and enjoyed unprecedented financial success employing an exclusive promotional model. Given the current realities, and White’s strong stance against co-promotion, a voluntary change of course from the industry leader seems unlikely to say the least.
However, if you look hard enough you can find reasons to believe that the company may be softening its closed door policy ever so slightly. When asked recently about the possibility of Couture v. Emelianenko in the UFC, White responded, “never say never.” The company is also allowing the WEC’s Rani Yahya to fight Kid Yamato in K-1 on New Year’s Eve. However, that situation is obviously very different from the Couture situation.
Yahya recently lost to WEC Bantamweight Title holder Chase Beebe, making the fight a no-lose situation for Zuffa. If Yahya wins, a WEC contender took out one of the biggest stars outside of the company. If he loses, he’s not a top guy, plus its in Japan with no TV in the US so it doesn’t really count. As Meltzer recently stated, “it’s not a sign that Zuffa will send it’s name talent elsewhere, or book people they don’t have under contract. But they will at least when it is strategically beneficial, cooperate with an outside group.” In other words: at least it’s a start.
Couture-Fedor, with the proper television build, is the biggest fight on the horizon in the industry. Co-promoting the bout would at the very least offer the UFC a significant financial gain in the short term, but at what cost moving forward? A win by Couture would validate the UFC as the home of the sport’s greatest fighters, but Couture would almost certainly retire following the bout, well positioned to take his valuable legacy and brand with him to another promotion in a non-fighting role.
A victory by Fedor would “expose” the UFC and provide M-1 with instant creditability moving forward. Most importantly, once the co-promotional genie is out of the bottle it probably can’t be put back in. Fans, fighters, and promoters alike will demand greater cooperation and an end to exclusivity.
Given those realities, the fight looks like a no-win situation, at least in the short to medium term, however, the truth of the matter is that the UFC can’t stop the fight from happening. Randy Couture will face Fedor Emelianenko eventually, with or without Zuffa’s cooperation. The only question Dana White must answer is whether the company will get its piece of the action or risk being marginalized by sitting on the sidelines.
The greatest damage to the company would arguably be suffered if the fight moves forward without the UFC’s involvement. A successful non-UFC event would shatter the current perception enjoyed by the company that it is the only major league MMA promotion, demonstrating to fans, and perhaps even more importantly the mainstream media, that the UFC is not the only game in town. Existing competitors would be buoyed, while new competitors would be attracted into an already crowded market.
If the UFC co-promotes the event it would most likely enjoy the lion’s share of credit for the event’s success. The company’s involvement would also change the media storyline that would emerge from the event. Instead of the UFC’s position atop the industry being challenged, the storyline would be the continued growth of MMA and the UFC’s continued leadership role in the industry.
Ultimately, the calculus of participation rests on whether White believes the event can be truly successful without his company’s involvement. Given the names rumored to be involved and the possibility of strong television support, I believe Couture-Emelianenko has a strong chance to become the first successful non-UFC pay-per-view in the history of the industry. Of course, at this point the details of such a event are largely speculative and many things can and will change between now and then.
Regardless, co-promotion is where the sport is headed, if not next year then sometime in the not too distant future. The UFC can either lead the way or face the possibility of being left behind. In a developing industry such as MMA, today’s dominant leader can easily become tomorrow’s forgotten legend. One need look no further than the dramatic rise of the UFC coupled with the equally remarkable demise of Pride to see this truth illustrated.
The future is knocking, will the UFC open the door?
American Gladiators Notes
December 16, 2007
- The show debuts on NBC with a two-hour premier on 1/6 before moving to its regular 8PM Monday time slot on 1/7.
- Gina Carano plays the lead female gladiator.
- The gladiators are getting $2,500 per week.
- Bob Sapp was also considered for a gladiator role on the show, but ultimately choose to take a similar role on Spike’s Pros v. Joes because it paid signifcantly better.
SOURCE: The Wrestling Observer Newsletter
TUF Rating – Week 12
December 15, 2007
Dave Meltzer reports that the 12/5 season finale of The Ultimate Fighter did a 1.14 rating with 1.4 million viewers. The show did a 1.46 in Males 18-34 and a 1.04 in Males 35-49.
SEE: TUF Ratings in Perspective for a detailed look at the ratings for season five.
There Are No Winners in Sherk Steroid Saga
December 13, 2007
The train wreck that was the Sean Sherk steroid suspension proceedings finally came to an end on December 4. Neither Sherk, the California State Athletic Commission, nor the UFC emerged unscathed after six months of grand standing by all parties involved. No one had much to be happy about at the end of the day.
The CSAC’s creditability was left in doubt after it reduced Sherk’s suspension from one year to six months on the strength of evidence calling into question the chain of custody of his urine sample and thus the validity of its testing procedures. Actually the commission found no merit to those claims and stood 100% behind its testing procedures and the result they produced.
Instead, the commission was moved by Sherk’s candor and honesty in admitting that he had made a mistake in taking performance enhancing drugs leading up to his UFC Lightweight Title defense against Hermes Franca in July. Except, instead of showing contrition, Sherk stood defiant, insistent about his innocence before, during, and after the proceedings. What then prompted the commission’s leniency? If only we knew.
This after the commission, in it’s highest profile doping case yet, with a man’s reputation and livelihood on the line, failed to provide even a semblance of organization and preparedness, much less a fair, rational proceeding. Instead, Sherk was left to face a kangaroo court, reminiscent of the star chamber of English lore, that made up the rules as they went and handed down penalties as they pleased.
The UFC and its President Dana White fared little better. White was steadfast in his support of Sherk, publicly professing his belief in Sherk’s innocence and refusing to strip him of the Lightweight Title up until the bitter end. Following the CSAC’s postponement of Sherk’s initial hearing, White signaled solidarity with Sherk, vowing to leave the Lightweight Title around his waist regardless of the CSAC’s ruling.
The tenability, or lack there of, of such a position seemed abundantly evident from the outset. Ignoring the ruling and questioning the authority of a major regulating body of your sport while touting your company’s embrace of regulation is not the most coherent of positions. Risking the creditability your company has built as a champion of regulation on a dominant fighter who has marginal box office value seems like a fairly high risk, low reward situation.
White subsequently backed away from that position and ultimately bowed to the commission’s ruling, reluctantly stripping Sherk of the title while maintaining his belief in Sherk’s innocence. However, his respect for the ruling, or lack there of, is evident from the fact that immediately after stripping Sherk of the title he announced that Sherk would be next in line for a title shot at the winner of January’s BJ Penn-Joe Stevenson fight for the vacant Lightweight title.
Last, but certainly not least, in the parade of the disgraced and disappointed is Sherk. He spent considerable time, financial resources, and personal creditability in defending his name. At the end of the day he was left frustrated, if not downright bitter, at a haphazard process that more closely resembled an informal straw poll than a quasi-judicial proceeding. Now he is left to face the fact that his career will forever carry the asterisk of a failed steroid test, regardless of its true validity.
At least in his defense, whether guilty or innocent, his behavior was completely rational and exactly what would be expected of any athlete in a similar position. The same cannot be said for the CSAC and the UFC who should have each reacted more professionally in the situation. The entire ordeal was an embarrassment to the sport, best quietly learned from and quickly forgotten.
