All In: A Lot is Riding on UFC 79
December 28, 2007
If UFC 79 were a hand of poker then the UFC would be betting it all. The company has built toward 12/29 all year and appeared to be determined, come hell or high water, to put forward its best lineup. First the company put its most talented weight class on hold for seven months in order to devote twelve weeks of The Ultimate Fighter to building Matt Serra v. Matt Hughes for the Welterweight Title. Then the company booked Chuck Liddell v. Wanderlei Silva, after first trying to make the fight in September, despite the fact that both men were coming off consecutive losses.
Then the best laid plan came apart with Serra forced to pull out due to an injury. Rather than cutting their losses and muddling forward with a safe replacement, the UFC chose to hot shot Hughes-St. Pierre III on short notice for the interim Welterweight Title no the less. The big show must go on, consequences be damned.
So the pressure is on with the company set to play its two biggest trump cards, outside of next year’s Jackson-Griffin fight, on the same night. The results, both in the pay-per-view receipts and the octagon, will go a long way towards charting the company’s course in 2008.
From a business and media perspective, with pay-per-view numbers down slightly for the year and the perception, real or perceived, that the industry has cooled off, the company could use a strong pay-per-view number to close the year. MMAPayout.com should have a complete story on the the company’s pay-per-view numbers for the year next week, however, the company likely needs 600,000+ buys on Saturday to have a shot at beating HBO Boxing for the year.
The race is about far more than just bragging rights as much of this year’s gushing media coverage is largely built on last year’s record setting year on pay-per-view, including the beating boxing storyline. It has been said before, but momentum is self-perpetuating and the company has benefited tremendously from the mainstream media exposure that has resulted from its perceived momentum. If the media stops seeing the sport as the next big thing it could become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Perhaps in a demonstration of how strongly the company feels about the event, the format of this month’s Countdown show was revamped with ramped up production values and more intricate story telling. The show had become very formulaic, although far from stale in my estimation, in the past few months. This month’s version had a more cohesive documentary feel, something like a poor man’s version of 24/7. In other words, the kind of hype show that would have drawn rave reviews before HBO raised the bar. I would describe the show as effective, but not spectacular.
I expect the company to do 500,000 buys in the worst case scenario, with something in the 600,000-700,000 range being the most likely result. Liddell’s last four pay-per-views have averaged nearly 650,000 buys, while the last Hughes-GSP fight did 500,000 buys on its own. Of course, some of the luster is off all the main eventers coming off high profile losses and the general business climate has changed significantly in the last year. I believe that a slowing economy is an increasing threat to pay-per-view numbers and there are those who believe it played a significant role in the disappointing numbers from this month’s Mayweather-Hatton fight.
To further complicate the picture, it was announced this week that Saturday’s mega game between the New England Patriots and the New York Giants will be simulcast on CBS and NBC in addition to the previously scheduled NFL Network. While boxing may not hurt the UFC’s numbers, football is a proven competitor. The NFL is the only sporting event that regularly beats the UFC in its key demographics and the only programming the company actively tries to avoid. The Ultimate Fighter’s move to Wednesday night was in large part an effort to get away from football.
In addition to the immediate business and media ramifications, the outcome of the top two fights will setup next year’s big fights, provided the company gets the “right” results. A Liddell win and resurgence would mean more to ’08 business than anything else on the horizon. Liddell would be one, at most two, fights away from a big money bout next December against the winner of Jackson-Griffin for the Light Heavyweight Title. A Silva victory could eventually mean something to business, especially against Jackson whom he holds victories over, but not anywhere near what Liddell chasing the title at 205 would.
Georges St. Pierre may be the future of the sport, but for now Matt Hughes is one of only three proven draws the company has left (Liddell and Oritz being the others). A Hughes win would setup a big fight with Serra in the spring followed by a string of fresh title defenses (Parisyan and Fitch) or a long anticipated move up to middleweight for a showdown with Anderson Silva (provided he can make it through Dan Henderson in March).
The rest of the sold out card features Rameau Sokoudjou’s much anticipated debut against undefeated Lyoto Machida in a top contenders match at 205, Rich Clementi Vs. Melvin Guillard, and Soa Palelei Vs. Eddie Sanchez.
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